如何規(guī)劃疫情后世界

1、本文格式為Word版，下載可任意編輯如何規(guī)劃疫情后世界 Ex ecutiv e Summary The CO VID-19 virus is sw eeping acr os s the w orld, l eaving a tr ail of ec onomic and social damage in its wak e. F orwar d thinking or ganizations ar e s t arting to plan f or a pos t- CO VID-19 w orld. Ho w e v er, pr edicting what this w orld wil

2、l l ook lik e is not easy . W e c an be r easonabl y sur e that the w orld will not simpl y r e v ert back to the way it was bef or e the crisis, but what will be diff er ent? The pr oblem with answ ering this ques tion is that r ec ent his tory does not pr ovide us with any points of r ef er enc e

3、to l earn fr om. The w orld has simpl y ne v er f ac ed a crisis lik e this one bef or e. And y et, whil e it may not be pos sibl e to pr edict the pos t CO VID-19 landsc ape, it is s till pos sibl e to plan f or it. Sc enario planning is a t ool designed to help or ganizations plan f or uncert ain

4、futures. It has been used e xt ensiv el y by or ganizations whose perf ormanc e is vulner abl e to major ec onomic, social, politic al, and envir onment al shifts, such as the oil and gas indus try . CO VID-19 has plac ed all sector s within this c ont e xt of uncert ainty, r equiring them to think

5、and plan in ne w ways. Sc enarios do not att empt to pr edict the futur e, but r ather identify a set of pos sibl e futur e s t at es. The y f ocus on the e xt ernal driving f or c es o v er which individual or ganizations hav e littl e or no c ontrol. Sc enarios ar e both plausibl e and chall engin

6、g. Or ganizations benefit fr om sc enario planning by imagining ho w the y might c ompete in each sc enario. This pr oc es s helps them widen their thinking ar ound pos sibl e r esponses and out c omes. F or e xampl e, some r esponses may not hav e been c onsider ed if the sc enario planning pr oc e

7、s s hadnt been f oll o w ed. Other r esponses become cl ear er and mor e obvious as the y ar e identified acr os s multipl e scenarios. In this r eport, w e hav e cr eat ed a set of plausibl e sc enarios f or the w orld aft er CO VID-19, and pr ovided guidelines f or ho w these sc enarios c an be us

8、ed in a w orkshop f ormat to help pr epar e f or a v ery uncert ain futur e. Sc enario planning w orkshops ar e r el e v ant f or or ganizations wishing to de v el op pr oactiv e s tr at egies f or dealing with the pandemic. F act or s influencing a pos t-C O VID - 19 futur e Among the many f act or

9、 s impacting the pos t-C O VID-19 landsc ape, w e hav e identified thr ee that, in our opinion, will cr eat e the gr eat es t impact and unc ert aint y . SCENARIO PLANNING F OR A POST -CO VID- 19 W ORLD F AC T O R 1: VIRUS L ONGEVIT Y Ho w l ong bef or e vir al inf ections and deaths sl o w do wn t

10、o the point wher e isolation policies c an be lift ed? F A CTO R 2 : GL OB AL MINDSET Ho w will peopl e s vie ws of social, ec onomic, and political boundaries be impact ed by the virus? F AC T O R 3: DIGIT AL ADOP TION Ho w will c onsumer s r eact t o digital t ools and t echnol ogies that hav e em

11、er ged because of the virus? Virus Longe vity Ho w l ong bef or e vir al inf ections and deaths sl o w do wn t o the point wher e isolation policies c an be lift ed? Short-t erm Impact One pot ential out c ome is that the spr ead of CO VID-19 f oll o ws a similar patt ern to China, Japan, and South

12、Kor ea wher e the virus r eaches its peak quickl y, but also dis sipat es quickl y . Whil e the virus does not disappear, the mas sive scal e of inf ections and deaths f ades away in a f e w months. Aft er se v er e disruption in Q1 2021, many parts of the w orld ar e r eady to r eopen their bor der

13、 s and r eturn to a ne w normal. A mas sive gl obal eff ort to de v el op pr e v ent ativ e measur es, such as v ac cines, and tr eatment options r esults in multipl e options to r educ e the impact and spr ead of the virus. Many c ountries in Eas t and South-Eas t Asia r elax isolation r equir emen

14、ts, busines ses r es t art, and bor der s r eopen by the end of May 2021. Mos t of Eur ope r eopens by the end of June, including a full r eins t at ement of unrestrict ed tr av el within the Schengen ar ea. North Americ a c omes back online by Labour Day . Some pock ets of CO VID-19 r emain in the

15、de v el oping w orld thr ough the end of Q3, but almos t all CO VID-19 r estrictions ar e lift ed gl oball y by the beginning of Q4 2021. Long-t erm Impact Another out c ome sees CO VID-19 linger acr os s the w orld f or at l eas t a y ea r . The att empt by many c ountries t o flatt en the curv e f

16、 ails, and inf ections and deaths c ontinue to gr o w and spr ead unabat ed. Whil e the de v el oped w orld s truggl es to maintain c ontr ol of the virus, the de v el oping w orld is o v errun with inf ections and deaths. A mut ated v er sion of the virus that was fir s t identified in Br azil sho

17、ws r esis t anc e to ne wl y de v el oped tr eatments. Despit e a mas siv e mobilization of scientific r esour c es, earl y v accines f ail to pr e v ent the virus. Countries that surviv ed the initial wav e of inf ection, lik e China, South Kor ea and Japan, see a sec ond wav e of the mut ated viru

18、s appear that is e v en mor e deadl y than the fir s t. Bor der s and non-essential busines ses r emain cl osed acr os s mos t of the w orld. In this out c ome, the gl obal l ock do wn r emains until at l eas t the fir s t quart er of 2021. SCENARIO PLANNING F OR A POST -CO VID- 19 W ORLD The virus

19、dis sipat es within a f e w months and isolation policies ar e lift ed quickl y Inf ections and deaths c ontinue f or at l eas t a y ear and isolation policies r emain in plac e indefinit el y SHOR T - TERM IMP AC T L ONG- TERM IMP AC T Ho w will peopl e s vie ws of social, ec onomic, and political

20、boundaries be impact ed by the virus? Gl obal Ac c ept ance In one out c ome, the gl obalization of tr ade and tr av el picks up unabat ed onc e the immediat e eff ects of the virus subside. The CO VID-19 c oor dination chall enges betw een nations and r egions point to a need f or cl oser gl obal a

21、lignment. Many peopl e r ealize that if information, know-ho w, and critic al infrastructur e, lik e medic al equipment, had been shar ed earlier and mor e eff ectiv el y, f ar f e w er peopl e w ould hav e died acr os s the w orld. This r ealization l eads to the es t ablishment of s tr onger gl ob

22、al ins titutions to pursue the gl obal c ommon good. Gl obal suppl y chains ar e r e-s t art ed and tr ade r out es ar e quickl y r e-es t ablished. Ne w tr ade deals betw een c ountries and r egions ar e quickl y negotiat ed and r atified. With barrier s being l o w er ed and bor der c ontr ols w e

23、ak ened, peopl e f eel fr ee to tr av el and liv e in other parts of the w orld. T r av el is cus t omary, and e v en though virus br eak-outs oc cur, ther e is enough medic al c apacity to identify and c ont ain episodes, and to enabl e individuals r ec o v er quickl y no matt er wher e the y tr av

24、 el t o. CO VID-19 is seen as a harbinger of cl oser gl obal social, ec onomic, and envir onment al c ooper ation. Gl obal R ejection In another out c ome, the fr agment ed r esponse to CO VID-19 and the f ailur e to s top the virus spr ead l ead to a deep dis trus t among diff er ent parts of the w

25、 orld. A multi-national blame game is ignit ed as c ountries att empt to shift the r esponsibility f or the inf ections and deaths to someone else. When bor der s do r eopen, the y ar e l es s fr ee than bef or e. Dis trus t of China, the US, and Russia deepens gl oball y, and each withdraws partial

26、l y int o its own bor der s, l eaving a gl obal l eader ship v acuum. Regional allianc es, lik e the EU and ASEAN s t art to w eak en and fr agment. P eopl e ar e shock ed by the oppr es sive r eaction to the virus in some c ountries, and become l es s c omfort abl e living and w orking abr oad. Nat

27、ionalism gr o ws acr os s the w orld as c ountries r ealize that gl obalization has made them def enc el es s agains t a gl obal pandemic lik e CO VID-19. Gl obal Mindset SCENARIO PLANNING F OR A POST -CO VID- 19 W ORLD 9 P eopl e see the v alue of a gl obal r esponse t o the virus and seek t o incr

28、 ease c oor dination acr os s the w orl d P eopl e become deepl y sk eptic al and dis trus tful of other countries and r etr eat t o a mor e f amiliar and l oc al wa y of living GL OB AL AC CEP T ANCE GL OB AL RE JEC TION Digit al Adoption Ho w will c onsumer s r eact t o digit al t ools and t echno

29、l ogies that hav e emer ged because of the virus? Digit al Ac c el er ation In one out c ome, CO VID-19 initiat es a sur ge in the de v el opment and usage of ne w digit al t echnol ogies. The r equir ement to w ork and socialize via t echnol ogy pulls t echnol ogy sk eptics and luddit es int o the

30、information age. Video c onf er encing solutions become mains tr eam f or w ork and pl easur e. Softwar e v endor s mak e sur e that all pr ogr ams and apps w ork at any time, fr om anywher e. With r estrictions on physic al c ol oc ation, ne w f orms of ent ert ainment ar e de v el oped that ar e c

31、 ompl et el y t echnol ogy-mediat ed. Physic al r estrictions e v erywhere ar e c ompensat ed in part by ne w adv anc es in digit al t echnol ogy . De v el oping c ountries get ac c es s to cheaper smart devic es and infrastructur e, so that peopl e acr os s the w orld become ac cus t omed to living

32、, w orking, and socializing with t echnol ogy . Digit al Sk epticism In another out c ome, the push to use digit al t echnol ogies mor e and mor e f or living and w orking l eads to a backlash. F or c orpor at e- type w ork wher e inv es tments c an be made in r eliability, the t echnol ogy does ena

33、bl e pr oductivity . Ho w e v er, f or "hav e nots' or in per sonal use, ther e is deep sk epticism of surv eillanc e, c ontr ol, and ultimat el y a fundament al mis trus t of the mos t pr oductiv e digit al t ools by c onsumer s and civic society at lar ge. Ther e is c onsider abl e activi

34、sm to l obby f or l es s intrusion, but it s uncl ear ho w the hold of the monopolis tic c ompanies that c ontr ol k e y digit al t echnol ogies c an be r educ ed. Surv eillanc e measures impl ement ed by go v ernments and lar ge c orpor ations to k eep tr ack of the virus l ead to a deep mis trus t

35、 of t echnol ogy . P eopl e s till use digit al t echnol ogies, but begin to r esent the intrusion that the y plac e on their liv es, whil e c alls f or priv acy rights and the fr eedom to be l eft al one become l oude r . SCENARIO PLANNING F OR A POST -CO VID- 19 W ORLD 11 The virus initiat es a w

36、av e of inno v ation and adoption of ne w digit al t echnol ogies Digit al sk epticism set s in and peopl e turn awa y fr om digit al t echnol ogies DIGIT AL AC CELERA TION DIGIT AL SKEP TICISM What will the pos t-C O VID - 19 futur e l ook lik e? The int erpla y of the thr ee f act or s w e sel ect

37、 ed vir al l onge vit y , gl obal mindset and digit al adoption c an l ead t o r emark abl y differ ent futur e w orl ds. Among the pos sibl e w orl ds emer ging fr om the c ombination of the thr ee f act or s, w e de v el oped f our sc enarios that chall enge our thinking, ques tion our as sumption

38、s, and help us think br oadl y about the futur e. The choic e w as based on an att empt t o pr ovide plausibl e, no v el, y et div er gent vie ws on ho w the pos t-C O VID - 19 w orl d might l ook, r ather than on ho w pr obabl e each sc enario might be. Gl obal Mark etplac e Short-t erm virus l onge vity Gl obal ac c ept anc e