鉑金在化工行業(yè)需求穩(wěn)定及強(qiáng)勁增長凸顯了鉑金在終端用途（英）

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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PLATINUMESSENTIALS

Steady,stronggrowthinplatinumchemicaldemand

highlightsthebenefitsofplatinum’sdiversityofenduses

Thisreportexaminestheconsistentstronggrowthindemandforplatinumexhibitedbythechemicalsub-sector.Itdrawsparallelswithsimilarplatinumindustrialdemandgrowthdrivenbydiverseendusesandtheincreasinglyimportantcarbonreductioncatalyticbenefitsofplatinumduringaperiodofgreatchange–theglobalenergytransition.

Platinumchemicaldemandfrom2013to2023fhasgrownata3.4%CAGR,higherthanglobalGDPgrowthof2.7%CAGRoverthesameperiod,suggestingincreasedappreciationforplatinum’sroleinimprovingprocessefficiencywithlowerenergyuseandhigheryields.Lookingaheadandincludingacautiouseconomicoverlay,weproject1%growthinplatinumchemicaldemandbetween2022and2027f.However,basedonhistoriccorrelationswithgrowthinchemicalmanufacturingcapacity,weestimatethatplatinumchemicaldemandcouldbec.100kozhigherin2027fthaninourcurrentforecasts(fig1).

Whileplatinumchemicaldemandaccountsforonly8-10%oftotalplatinumdemand,platinum’soverallindustrialdemandwhosediverseindustrialendusestypicallyhavedifferenteconomicdrivers,alsodemonstrategrowthinexcessofglobalGDPgrowth(4%v3%CAGR,2013–2023f)forsimilarreasons.Inaddition,thediverseendusesresultinlowervolatilityofdemandascapacityexpansionsacrossusesseldomalign.Platinumdemandisfurtherdiversifiedacrossautomotive,jewelleryandinvestmentdemandandreducesvariabilityindemandsignificantlyversusthatseeninitssisterPGMs,wherechangesinautomotivedemand,theirdominantuse,aggravatevariabilityindemandandprice.Consequently,platinumissomewhatinsulatedagainstdrivetrainelectrificationwhilstinparallelissettoexperiencedemandgrowthfromthehydrogeneconomy(boththroughinstalledelectrolysercapacityandFCEVs).Whilstthisreportfocusesonplatinum’suseinthechemicalsindustry,itsdynamicsofconsistentgrowtharetypicalofmanyotherend-usesforplatinum.

Ourkeyconclusionisthatplatinum’sdiversityofend-usesandkeyroleindecarbonisationresultsindemandgrowthbeinginsulatedfrombroadermarketrisks.

Figure1.CorrelatingPtchemicaldemandgrowthtoinstalledcapacitygrowthimplies100kozadditionalPtdemandaboveour2027forecast

Source:NexantECA,SFA(Oxford)2013-2018,MetalsFocus2019-2023,Companyguidance,WPICResearchfrom2024

EdwardSterck

DirectorofResearch+442036968786

esterck@

WadeNapier

Analyst+442036968774

wnapier@

JacobHayhurst-Worthington

AssociateAnalyst+442036968771

jworthington@

BrendanClifford

HeadofInstitutionalDistribution+442036968778

bclifford@

WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil

FoxgloveHouse,166PiccadillyLondonW1J9EF

2August2023

Platinum’sdiversedemandend-uses,andcatalyticrolesshouldcontinuetocombineforasmoothedplatinumdemandgrowthprofileakintohistorictrendsforindustrialdemand,particularlyduetoitsimportancetothehydrogeneconomy

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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Contents

Introduction................................................................................................2

Platinuminthechemicalssector...............................................................2

Chemicals,aconsistentindustrialdemandsource...................................4

Platinum’sdiversificationisarelativeadvantage......................................5

Potentialheadwinds...................................................................................6

Conclusion.................................................................................................7

Introduction

Thisreportexploresplatinum’sroleinthechemicalssector,whichhasexhibiteda

consistenthistoryofplatinumdemandgrowth.Whilethechemicalssectormayonly

accountforamodestcomponentoftotalplatinumdemand(8-10%oftotaldemand),

wehighlightthatthechemicalssectorisjustoneofthemanydiverseendusesof

platinum.Whencomparedtoitssistermetals,palladiumandrhodium,platinum’s

demandfrommultipleend-uses(eachunderpinnedbyvariouseconomicand

applicationspecificdrivers),shouldbetterinsulateit’sdemandfromexogenousrisks.

Diverseendusedemandwith

Platinuminthechemicalssector

differingeconomicdriversshould

betterinsulateplatinumfrommarket

Theglobalpetrochemicalssectorservesadiversemarketofend-usesincluding

shocks

plastics,adhesives,fertilisers,anddetergents.Platinum’scatalyticpropertiessupport

itsuseacrossseveralchemicals’derivativesincludingparaxylene,mono-ethylglycol,

nitricacid,propylene,silicone,anddehydrogenation.

Inthemajorityofchemicalapplications,platinumisusedasacatalysttospeedup

reactions,toreducetheenergyrequirementsofaprocess,and/ortoimprovetheyield.

Ingeneral,theplatinumcatalystsareuseduntiltheyhavebeendegraded,atwhich

pointtheyarerecycledwithintheindustry,withasmallamountofadditionalplatinum

addedtotopupforanylossesthathaveoccurredduringthemanufacturingprocess.

Anexceptiontothisisplatinumcuredsilicones,wheretheplatinumbecomeslocked

upwithinthesiliconeandisthereforeconsumedduringmanufacturing.

Figure1.Platinumchemicaldemandbroadlytrackslong-terminstalled

capacitytrendsofthepetrochemicalsindustry(indexed2013=1.0)

Platinumchemicaldemandhasgrownat3.4%CAGRsince2013

Source:NexantECA,SFA(Oxford)2013to2018,MetalsFocus2019to2021,WPICresearch,

*NoforecastdataforPara-Xylenecapacity

Year-to-yearchemicalsdemandislinkedtobroadereconomicgrowth.Whilst

macroeconomicvolatilitymayimpactshort-termoutputfromexistingplants,capacity

investmentdecisionsmustbeundertakenwithalong-termviewofglobaleconomic

growthwhichgenerallyresultsingreaterconsistencyinthetimingofnewplant

commissioning.

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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Trackingunderlyingolefinscapacity,ethylene,andpropylene,toapproximatethebroadchemicalsindustry,installedcapacityhasincreasedby3.5%and3.7%CAGRsince2013,respectively.Installedcapacitygrowthbroadlyreflectsplatinumchemicaldemandgrowthwhich,netofclosed-looprecycling,hasrunata3.4%CAGRsince2013.Comparativegrowthratessuggestastrongcorrelationbetweeninstalledchemicalscapacityandplatinumchemicaldemand(seefig.2).Weattributethecorrelationbetweencumulativeinstalledchemicalscapacityandplantdemandto“top-up”consumptionwhichisnecessarytoreplaceounceslostduringtheproductionprocess.

“Top-up”platinumconsumptionistypicallylessthantheplatinumrequirementsforcapacityadditions,howeversomewhatsurprisingly,thereisnoevidentcorrelationbetweenchemicalsplatinumdemandandchemicalscapacitycommissioning’s(seefig.3).

Figure2.Platinumchemicaldemandversusannualchemicalplantcapacityadditions

Source:NexantECA,SFA(Oxford)2013to2018,MetalsFocus2019to2022,WPICresearch

Lookingahead,NexantECAforecaststhatethyleneandpropyleneinstalledcapacitywillincreaseby2.6%and3.1%CAGRto2030respectively,supportingongoingplatinumchemicaldemandgrowth(bothnewcommissioningandtop-upounces).

Platinumindustrialdemand

constitutesanumberofdistinctend-markets

Assuminga2.85%CAGRinchemicalscapacitygoingforwards(themid-pointofthe

NexantECAestimatesabove),wouldresultinplatinumchemicaldemandbeing~100

kozhigherin2027fthaninourmostrecentlypublishedtwo-to-five-yearsupply/demand

outlook(seefig.4)anda~25%increaseinplatinumchemicaldemandby2030f.Note

thatourcurrenttwo-to-five-yearplatinumsupplydemandoutlookassumeschemical

sectorplatinumdemandof693kozin2027fwhichislessthantheaveragedemand

between2021to2023of716koz,withtheassumptionsreflectingcurrenteconomic

uncertainties.

Figure3.CorrelatingPtchemicaldemandgrowthtoinstalledcapacitygrowth

implies100kozadditionalPtdemandaboveour2027forecast

Source:NexantECA,SFA(Oxford)2013to2018,MetalsFocus2019to2023,WPICresearch

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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Chemicals,aconsistentindustrialdemandsource

Platinumdemandfromindustrialapplicationscomprisesthechemical,petroleum,electrical,glassandmedicalsectors.Eachindividualindustrialend-useexperiencesspecificfactorswhichmayimpactdemandandsubsequenttimingandmagnitudeofannualplatinumconsumption.Diversificationappearstomitigateindividualend-usedemandvolatilitysupportingbroadlyconsistenttotalindustrialplatinumdemandgrowth.Thecombinationofdiversedemandend-usescouldbeconsideredtonetoffandapproximateglobaleconomicgrowth.However,thegrowingappreciationofplatinum’scatalyticpropertieswhichenhanceprocessefficiencywithlowerenergyuseandincreaseyieldshasunderpinnedindustrialplatinumdemandgrowthof4.0%CAGRbetween2013to2022(seefig.5),aheadofglobalGDPof2.7%overthesameperiod.

Figure4.Platinumchemicaldemandaccountsforthelargestportionof

industrialplatinumdemandonaverage

Source:SFA(Oxford)2013to2018,MetalsFocus2019to2023,WPICresearch

Platinumchemicaldemandactsasabroadandstableunderpinfortotalindustrialplatinumdemand

Althoughplatinumpriceshavedecreasedsince2013,increasingindustrialplatinum

demanddoesnotappeartobestronglycorrelatedtochangesintheplatinumprice

(seefig.6).Platinumcatalysts’yieldandenergyefficiencybenefitsinindustrial

applicationsthereforemustoutweighpriceconsiderationsaschangesinindustrial

platinumdemandandtheplatinumpricehavebeenmodestlypositivelycorrelated

since2000(R2of0.49),suggestinginelasticdemand(anegativecorrelationwould

indicatepriceelasticdemand).Industrialplatinumdemandhasagreatercorrelationto

globalGDP(R2of0.56)thantoplatinumprices.

Figure5.Since2000,annualplatinumindustrialdemandhasshownno

specificcorrelationtoplatinumprices,which,particularlyinthelackofa

negativecorrelation,suggestsdemandinelasticity

Source:JohnsonMatthey2000to2012,SFA(Oxford)2013to2018,MetalsFocus2019to

2022,WorldBank,WPICresearch

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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Since2013thechemicalsub-sectorhasreporteddemandgrowth(3.4%p.a.),slightlybelowthecollectiveindustrialsectorat4.0%p.a.Whilstunderperformingthecollectiveindustrialplatinumdemand,wehighlightthatplatinumchemicaldemandhasingeneralreportedlessvolatilegrowthpatternsthanotherindustrialsegments(seefig.7).NotablyglassandpetroleumarehighlyvolatilealbeitwithdemandrunningaheadofcollectiveIndustrialdemandat16%and12%CAGRrespectivelysince2013.Webelieveplatinumpetroleumdemandvolatilityisindicativeofbroaderenergymarketsandexpectthesectortobecomeadragasenergymajorsdiversifyfurtherintopetrochemicalstomitigateriskstheenergytransitionweighsonunderlyingcrudeoilandgasdemand.Asinstalledpetrochemicalsproductioncapacityincreases,thechemicalsub-segmentislikelytoremainthecoreconstituentofindustrialplatinumdemand(whichhasaveraged30%oftotalplatinumdemandoverthepastfive-years)overthemedium-term.

Figure6.Platinumchemicaldemandislessvolatilethanmostotherindustrialend-uses,particularlypetroleumandglassdemand

Source:SFA(Oxford)2013to2018,MetalsFocus2019to2022,WPICresearch

Platinum’sdiversificationisarelativeadvantage

Aswellasthediverseendusesofplatinumindustrialdemand,totaldemandisalsodiverse,beingsplitacrosstheindustrial,automotive,jewellery,andinvestmentsegments(seefig.8).Incomparisontoplatinum,palladiumandrhodiumdemandarefarmoreconcentratedtotheautomotivesector,withdemandforautocatalystsrepresenting82%and85%ofdemand,respectivelyonaverageoverthepastfiveyears(vs.37%ofplatinumdemand).

Figure7.Platinum’sdemandconstituentsaremorediversethanitssisterPGMswhichareheavilyexposedtotheautomotivesector

Source:MetalsFocus2019to2022,WPICresearch

Platinum’sdiverseend-marketsbetterinsulatedemandfrom

sectorspecifictrends

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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Platinum’sdiverseofenduses,whichhaveindividualeconomicandapplicationspecificdemanddrivers,implyplatinumisrelativelylessexposedtoindustryspecificriskssuchastheelectrificationofthedrivetrain.Moreover,theongoingpricepremiumofpalladiumandrhodiumhasfurtherincentivisedthriftingandsubstitutiontowardsplatinuminindustrialapplications.Platinumindustrialdemandgrowthof4.0%CAGRsince2013standsinsharpcontrasttodecliningindustrialdemandforbothpalladium(-2.8%CAGR)andrhodium(-4.1%CAGR).Thetrendofswitchingtoplatinumandthriftingofpalladiumandrhodiumbecamemoreprevalentwithprice.Platinumindustrialdemandhasbeensustainablyhigherthanpalladiumindustrialdemandsince2018whichwasayearafterplatinumpricesbegantradingatadiscounttopalladiumprices(seefig.9).

Figure8.PlatinumIndustrialdemandincreasedaboveindustrialpalladiumdemandaspalladiumpricesbegantradingatapremiumtoplatinumprices

Source:Bloomberg,SFA(Oxford)2013to2018,MetalsFocus2019to2022,WPICresearch

Potentialheadwinds

Increasingplatinumchemicaldemandfacestwopotentialheadwinds,namely,risinginterestratesandreversesubstitution.

Higherinflation,risingratesandslowereconomicgrowth

Likemanycommodities,thechemicalssectoriscyclical.Althoughchemicaldemandandpricesfacevolatility,thepetrochemicalindustryhasexhibitedconsistentgrowthininstalledproductioncapacity.Whilsteconomicuncertaintymaybeoverlookedinlong-termcapacityinvestmentdecisions,theriseininterestratessinceearly2022mayweighonreturnprojectionsandcauseaslowingofchemicalcapacitygrowthcapex.

Figure9.TheinvertedUSyieldcurvesuggestsmarketsexpecttheFederalReservetoreverseitscurrentrestrictivemonetarypolicy

Source:Bloomberg,WPICresearch

Interestrateuncertaintydetracts

fromlong-terminvestmentdecisions

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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Interestrateshaverisenbyanaverageof500basispointsintheUnitedStatessince

quarteroneof2022.Centralbankshaveincreasedborrowingcoststomanage

inflation.However,invertedyieldcurvessuggestthatCentralBankswillbeginreducing

interestratesasinflationrevertstotargetrangesfrom2024(seefig.10).Should

Risingpriceshavelikely

borrowingcostsbereducedfromcurrentlevels,weexpectgrowthinvestmentsinthe

underpinnedpalladiumandrhodium

petrochemicalssectorcouldnormalise.

thriftinginindustrialenduses

Ashiftinpreferenceawayfromplatinumtopalladium/rhodiumforindustrial

Anexampleofsubstitutionbeingin

applications

theglassindustry,whichhasmoved

Asdiscussedabove,platinumindustrialdemandhasgrown,incontrasttoindustrialdemandforpalladiumandrhodium,bothofwhichhaveshrunk.Thedivergentdemandtrendsresultedfromrisingautomotivepalladiumandrhodiumdemandthatcaused

towards100%platinumbushingsattheexpenseofusinglessrhodium

supplydeficitsleadingtorisingpalladiumandrhodiumprices,therebydisincentivising

industrialdemand.

Pricedifferencesbetweenplatinumandpalladiumincentivisesubstitutionofplatinum

forpalladiumingasolineinternalcombustionengines.InourlatestPlatinumQuarterly

forQ12023,wehighlightourautomotivepalladiumforplatinumsubstitutionestimate

is615kozin2023,supportinga2023platinumsupplydeficitof983koz.Sustained

platinumdeficitsandaclosingofthepricingdifferentialwithpalladiumcouldincentivise

reversesubstitution,causingindustrialplatinumuserstoexploreincreaseduseof

palladiumorrhodium.

Afurtherconsiderationofreversesubstitutionwouldbetheimpactofreturningmetal

tothemarket.ThroughQ12023,rhodiummarketsentimentandpriceshavebeen

negativelyimpactedbyglassmanufacturersreturningrhodiumtothemarketas

rhodiumwasthriftedandsubstitutedfrombushingsinfavourofplatinum.Thenegative

responseofrhodiumhighlightsitsilliquidandundiversifiedmarket,whereasplatinum

marketswhichconstitutediverseparticipantsarelikelytobelessresponsivetosuch

reversesubstitutionfromasingleend-use.

Conclusion

Platinumdemandisdiversifiedamongstanumberofend-uses,moresothanitssister

metalspalladiumandrhodium.Withtheautomotivesectoraccountingfor37%of

platinum’sdemandoverthepastfiveyearscomparedto82%ofpalladiumand85%of

rhodiumdemand,webelievethatplatinum’sdemanddiversitybetterinsulatesthe

metalfromdrivetrainelectrificationrisksandotherexogenousfactors.Lookingahead,

platinum’sdemandenduseswillfurtherdiversifyasthehydrogeneconomycontinues

togrow(boththroughinstalledelectrolysercapacityandfuelcells,includingFCEVs).

Thehydrogeneconomyhasitsowneconomicandapplicationspecificdriverswhich

weexpecttoplayaroleinfutureplatinumdemand.

Whilstreducingplatinum’sconcentrationrisks,industrialend-useshavealsoprovenresilientoverthelong-term,increasingplatinumconsumptionbya4.0%CAGRsince2013.Withinindustrialdemand,thechemicalsectorhasprovedparticularlyresilient,reportingplatinumdemandgrowthof3.4%p.a.since2013andconstitutingthelargestcomponentofindustrialplatinumdemandat~30%.

Giventhecorrelationbetweenplatinumchemicaldemand,chemicalcapacityadditionsandinstalledcapacity,weestimatethatplatinumchemicaldemandcouldaddanincremental~100kozby2027ifchemicaldemandgrowthmatchesthirdpartyprojections.Thiswouldaccentuateourforecastsforplatinumsupplydeficits.Wenotethatourcurrent

twotofive-yearplatinumsupplydemandoutlook

(seefig.11)assumesplatinumchemicaldemandof693kozin2027fwhichislessthantheaveragedemandoverthepastthreeyearsof716koz.

Platinummarketsareforecasttoenterasustainedperiodofsupplydeficitsfrom2023

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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Figure10.Platinummarketsareforecasttoenterasustainedsupplydeficit

from2023,suggestingasupportiveinvestmentcase

Source:SFA(Oxford)from2013to2018,MetalsFocusfrom2019to2023,Companyguidance,

WPICResearchfrom2024-2027

WPICaimstoincreaseinvestmentinplatinum

WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil(WPIC)wasestablishedbytheleadingSouthAfricanPGMminersin2014toincreaseinvestmentownershipinplatinum.Thisisdonethroughbothactionableinsightsandtargeteddevelopment.Weprovideinvestorswiththeinformationtosupportinformeddecisionse.g.the

PlatinumQuarterly

andmonthly

PlatinumPerspectives

and

PlatinumEssentials.

Wealsoanalysetheplatinuminvestmentvaluechainbyinvestor,product,channelandgeographyandworkwithpartnerstoenhancemarketefficiencyandincreasetherangeofcost-effectiveproductsavailabletoinvestorsofalltypes.

?2023WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

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IMPORTANTNOTICEANDDISCLAIMER:Thispublicationisgeneralandsolelyforeducationalpurposes.Thepublisher,TheWorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil,hasbeenformedbytheworld’sleadingplatinumproducerstodevelopthemarketforplatinuminvestmentdemand.Itsmissionistostimulateinvestordemandforphysicalplatinumthroughbothactionableinsightsandtargeteddevelopment:providinginvestorswiththeinformationtosupportinformeddecisionsregardingplatinum;workingwithfinancialinstitutionsandmarketparticipantstodevelopproductsandchannelsthatinvestorsneed.

Thispublicationisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedtobe,anoffertosellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurity.Withthispublication,thepublisherdoesnotintendtotransmitanyorderfor,arrangefor,adviseon,actasagentinrelationto,orotherwisefacilitateanytransactioninvolvingsecuritiesorcommoditiesregardlessofwhethersuchareotherwisereferencedinit.Thispublicationisnotintendedtoprovidetax,legal,orinvestmentadviceandnothinginitshouldbeconstruedasarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyinvestmentorsecurityortoengageinanyinvestmentstrategyortransaction.Thepublisherisnot,anddoesnotpurporttobe,abroker-dealer,aregisteredinvestmentadvisor,orotherwiseregisteredunderthelawsoftheUnitedStatesortheUnitedKingdom,includingundertheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000orSeniorManagersandCertificationsRegimeorbytheFinancialConductAuthority.

Thispublicationisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedtobe,personalizedinvestmentadvicedirectedtoorappropriateforanyparticularinvestor.Anyinvestmentshouldbemadeonlyafterconsultingaprofessionalinvestmentadvisor.Youaresolelyresponsiblefordeterminingwhetheranyinvestment,investmentstrategy,securityorrelatedtransactionisappropriateforyoubasedonyourinvestmentobjectives,financ