全球水泥業(yè)洞察：行業(yè)展望與供應數(shù)據(jù)庫

1、Global Cement Insights2019 Edition - Outlook and JPM Proprietary Cement Supply DatabaseWe present the 2019 edition of J.P. Morgans in-depth cement industry analysis which provides a comprehensive outlook for each region using a bottom-up approach from our regional analysts. We also update our JPM pr

2、oprietary cement supply database and rank individual regions and markets on attractiveness from a supply perspective. With the global cement sector trading on 7.8x 2020E EV/EBITDA, we present our four most preferred cement stocks among those covered by J.P. Morgan Global Cement Research Team.Global

3、demand (ex-China) expected to at 3% p.a. over 2020-21. We expect global cement demand to grow 1% over 2020-21 stable trend in China and +3% growth in rest of the markets. While broader macro concerns followed by oil price volatility resulted in recent years of EM cement demand, we expect a normalise

4、d growth environment with EM ex-China growing at +3%. For DM, we expect +2% CAGR, which is a continuation of the pace from the last threeyears.Supply situation unchanged in DM; continued increases in EM. expect utilisation rates in developed markets to continue to improve given limited supply additi

5、on and our demand growth forecast of +2%, thus providing a supportive backdrop for pricing. The pace of capacity addition announcements in EM has continued but has been mixed across regions given low incremental returns. Also, 40% of the identified projects are for grinding capacity, which is an inc

6、remental positive as clinker supply is growing at a slower pace. We identify intentions in Eastern Europe, while Latin America and Middle East Africa a rise in intentions, and slowdown to normalised levels in Asia. The outlook for EM ex-China cement margins is expected to improve marginally, driven

7、by recovering a demand outlook, partly tempered by sustained supply growth coming online in the nearMargin attractiveness ranking for markets from supply perspective. We rank broader regions and individual markets according to their levels of utilisation rates and expected supply addition over the t

8、hree years, which in identifying markets with positive outlook on pricing and as a result margins (the US) vs. tougher ones (largely in Africa andAsia).Stock recommendations and Valuations. The Global Cement sector trades on 7.8x EV/EBITDA, 16.1x P/E, 6.8% FCF yield and 2.6% Dividend yield, on our a

9、nd Bloomberg estimates for 2020E. From the 20+ cement stocks covered by J.P. Morgan Global Cement Research Team, our preferred stocks are: LafargeHolcim (OW), GCC (OW), Ultratech (OW), Indonesia (OW) and CR Cement(OW).Global Equity Research09 December 2019Global Building & Construction Elodie Rall A

10、C(44-20) 7134-5911 HYPERLINK mailto:elodie.rall elodie.rallJ.P. Morgan SecuritiesplcRajesh Patki AC(44-20) 7742-5874 HYPERLINK mailto:rajesh.patki rajesh.patkiJ.P. Morgan Securities plcAdrian E Huerta AC*(52-81) 8152-8720 HYPERLINK mailto:adrian.huerta adrian.huertaJ.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de

11、 C.V.,J.P. Morgan Grupo FinancieroBrook Campbell-Crawford, CFA AC(61-2) 9003 6101 HYPERLINK mailto:brook.campbell-crawford brook.campbell- HYPERLINK mailto:crawford crawfordJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedGunjan Prithyani AC(91-22) 6157-3593 HYPERLINK mailto:gunjan.x.prithyani gunjan.x.prith

12、yaniJ.P. Morgan India PrivateLimitedJeanette Yutan AC(63-2) 8878-1188 HYPERLINK mailto:jeanette.g.yutan jeanette.g.yutanJ.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.Indra Cahya, CFA AC(62-21) 5291-8575 HYPERLINK mailto:indra.cahya indra.cahyaPT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas IndonesiaSumedh Samant, CFA AC(66-2) 6

13、84 2682 HYPERLINK mailto:sumedh.y.samant sumedh.y.samant JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) LimitedPo Wei AC(852) 2800 8537 HYPERLINK mailto:po.wei po.weiJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limitedas a See page 206 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosur

14、es.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatmay a of interest the of as a HYPERLINK / Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Special Focus onSupplyDynamics9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 JPM Proprietary Global Supply Database HYPERLINK

15、 l _bookmark2 10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Top Picks28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Canada32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 United States39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 WesternEurope59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 France60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Germany66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Italy73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Spain79 HYPERLINK

16、 l _bookmark12 UK85 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Developed Asia91 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Australia -ModerationAhead92 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Australia Macro Outlook98 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 New ZealandMacroOutlook107 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Eastern Europe111 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Poland112 HYPERLINK

17、 l _bookmark19 Russia117 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Ukraine123 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 EmergingAsia129 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 China130 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 India: Expect growth trends to moderate after two strong HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 years HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Indonesia141 HYPERLINK l _bookma

18、rk27 Philippines146 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Thailand150 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Middle East & Africa157 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Algeria158 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Egypt162 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Nigeria166 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 LatinAmerica171 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Brazil172 HYPERLINK l _bookma

19、rk35 Colombia183 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Mexico193Global Cement Insights 2019 EditionWe present the 2019 edition of J.P. Morgans global cement industry in-depth analysis. J.P. Morgans global cement universe is covered by analysts based in the UK, Mexico, China, Indonesia, India, Philippines, Thailan

20、d, and Australia. In this report, each of our regional cement analysts has presented the outlook for their respective regions using a bottom-up approach. The report also includes comprehensive stock coverage, valuation summary and top picks of the J.P. Morgan Global Cement Research Team.J. P. Morgan

21、 Outlook Summary on Global Cement IndustryGlobal demand likely to remain stable in 2020-2021In 2019 YTD, global cement demand grew 3% driven by strong growth in China (+5%) but moderate growth in the rest of the world (+1%). Outside of China, growth was driven by developed markets (+2%) but partiall

22、y offset by a lack of growth at emerging markets ex-China (+0%).Over the next two years (2020-21), we expect global cement demand to grow at a+1% CAGR. This deceleration is driven by our expectation for stable trend in China. We expect growth to pick-up in the rest of the world to +3% driven by both

23、 DM (+2%) and EM ex-China: (+3%).Given its high weight-to-value ratio, the cement industry is fairly localized in nature, even on a country level. Over 30 years ago, emerging markets accounted for 60% of global demand but this figure has risen to 93% in 2015. We expect the ratio to remain approximat

24、ely the same by 2020.Figure 1: Emerging Markets account for 90%+ of global cement demand%19%9%19%9%7%7%40%93%81%60%91%93%80%60%40%20%0%19852005201020152020EEmergingMarketsDevelopedMarketsSource: International Cement Review, J.P. Morgan.Within emerging markets, China accounts for the majority of dema

25、nd. We note that China accounted for 60% of the global cement demand in 2015 (vs. 19% in 1985). Given our outlook, we expect China to continue to represent 60% of global demand by 2020.Figure 2: China accounts for more than half of global cement demand%53%42%53%42%40%40%81%60%60%19%47%58%0%20052010E

26、ChinaRest of theWorld2020ESource: International Cement Review, J.P. Morgan.Among the emerging markets and aside from China, India is the largest market at an estimated 342mt of consumption in 2019 by a wide margin. The next largest within emerging markets are Indonesia (102mt), Vietnam (71mt), and R

27、ussia (56mt).Figure 3: Global cement demand in 2018 by regionmt2,3716822,371682217131109112151157540Western EuropeNorth America Developed AsiaEastern Europe LatinAmericaMiddle AfricaAsia ex ChinaChinaSource: International Cement Review, J.P. Morgan.Developed Markets: Western Europe and North America

28、 continue to grow at moderate paceWhile the decreasing proportion of developed markets in global cement reflects the extremely strong growth in China over the previous two decades, we also note that demand in developed markets has declined by 31% from a peak of 432mt in 2006 to 299mt this year.Over

29、the last three years though, cement demand in developed markets has grown, driven by a moderate pick-up in North America with some growth in Western Europe, while Developed Asia has posted low growth (due to a lack of growth in Japan).From here, we expect the demand in the North America and Western

30、Europe to continue growing, albeit at a moderate pace in 2019-21 with slightly negative trends in Developed Asia. Overall for 2020 and 2021, we expect cement demand in developed markets to grow at +2% per year.Figure 4: J.P. Morgan outlook for cement demand in developed markets% chg y/y3%3%3%3%2%2%2

31、%2%2%2%2% 2%1%1%0%0% 0%4%2%0%-2%-4%WesternEuropeNorthAmericaDevelopedAsia 201720182019E2020E2021ESource: International Cement Review, J.P. Morgan.Emerging Markets: While trends have been mixed in recent years, we expect a more normalized growth environment in the next two years.Following strong grow

32、th previously (+5% CAGR 2010-2014), demand growth has been mixed in emerging markets since 2015 driven by the impact from the oil price volatility in recent years and a temporary slowdown in China.In 2019 YTD, however, growth picked up to +3% in all of emerging markets, driven up by a strong increas

33、e in China (+5% YTD), while emerging markets ex-China flat. Outside of China, growth was again mixed with Eastern Europe and Asia ex- China showing moderate growth (+2/+3%), while Latin America and Africa declined slightly (-1%). The performance in Middle East was weak (-8%) due to a sharp fall in T

34、urkey demandFor 2020 and 2021, we expect a more normalized growth rate of +1% per year for emerging markets overall, with no growth from China, but +3% growth in EM ex- China. We expect this growth to come from Asia ex-China (+5%, mainly attributed to mid-single-digit growth expectations for India a

35、nd Indonesia), Africa (+3%), and Eastern Europe (+3%).Figure 5: J.P. Morgan outlook for cement demand in emerging markets6%2%1%2% 6%2%1%2% 3% 3%1% 2%2%1%2%3% 3%3%3% 4%5%5%2%0% 0%-1%-1%-1%-2%0% -1%-3%-5%-8%8%4%0%-4%-8%-12%EasternEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastAfricaAsiaexChinaChinaSource: International

36、Cement Review, J.P. Morgan.201720182019E2020E2021EGreater contrast in utilisation rates and profitability evolutionImproving demand does not necessarily lead to improving margins, as supply discipline is the key driver of pricing and the ability of companies to cover cost inflation. Utilisation rate

37、s might decrease with capacity increases, despite volume growth, as has been the case in several emerging markets over recent years. In the following section, we review this theme in detail, through our updated J.P. Morgan proprietary supply database.Expect moderate demand improvement to support pro

38、fitability in DM We expect profitability in DM cement operations to be supported by moderate improvement in utilisation rates as we see (i) no major capacity addition announcements in developed markets and (ii) continued increase in demand atamoderate pace. We view both demand and supply perspective

39、s as broadly providing support to pricing trends and margins in the near to medium term.Picture for EM margins remains mixed although slightly improving Improving demand backdrop should help margins in EMs. J.P. Morgan regional analysts expect the outlook for margins to be broadly stable/slight impr

40、ovement in most EM markets, particularly in the backdrop of subdued inflation. We note that supply discipline is less straightforward than in DMs, in our view. Returns on incremental capacity declined over 2012-15 and stabilised over the last 3-4 years. Our proprietary supply database suggests that

41、the pace of capacity addition announcements in EM this year is mixed, with Eastern Europe showing minimal intentions, Latin America and Middle East Africa displaying a rise in intentions, and Asia exhibiting a slowdown in intentions but to more normalized levels. Also, 40% of the identified projects

42、 are for grinding capacity, which is an incremental positive as clinker supply is growing at a slower pace. The outlook for EM cement margins is expected to improve marginally, driven by a recovering demand outlook, partly tempered by sustained supply growth in the near term, although low returns lo

43、ok to be discouraging new intentions for capacity additions, which suggest potential for margin improvement in the mediumterm.Summary of expectations by regions and main marketsIn the following sections, we discuss the key markets in each region in detail and provide a summary of our outlook on thos

44、e markets in the table below.Table 1: J.P. Morgan Outlook on Global Cement IndustryCapacity2019-21CAGRLong term demand outlookUtilisation RateMarket ConsolidationCommentary on pricing2018,mt%(- - / - / = / +/+)2018,%Top 3 shareNorth AmericaUS116Canada202.5%2.0%(+)(=)85%42%Pricing expected to remain

45、solidPricing expected to hold well68%73%Western EuropeFrance28Germany53Spain51Italy52UK171.3%1.5%(+/=)(+/=)(=)(+/=)(+/=)62%63%79%Pricing expected to remain solid Pricing expected to hold upPricing to improve as utilisation rates pick upPricing showing signs of recovery given consolidationPricing exp

46、ected to hold well62%62%3.0%43%2.0%37%72%0.0%75%76%Eastern EuropeRussia111Poland24Ukraine182.0%(+/=)(+)(+)49%56%Pricing to improve with inflation Pricing expected to remain solidHigh inflation driving pricing but limited growth otherwise4.0%79%69%0.0%51%76%Middle East & AfricaAlgeria34Egypt83Nigeria

47、48-1.7%(+/=)(+/=)(+)68%68%81%Softer trends with concerns given further capacity additions Pricing expected to remain low due to oversupplyVolatile trends in the recent past-0.1%37%5.0%44%100%Developed AsiaAustralia18-2.0%(=)75%90%Steady trendsEmerging AsiaChina3,290India475Indonesia103Philippines38T

48、hailand600.0%(=)(+)(+)(+)(=)72%71%32%Continues to be driven by government policyPricing expected to be solid this year and flattish next year Pricing expected to increase with inflationPricing expected to be soft in next two years Pricing remains range-bound given low utilisation4.2%4.9%55%61%85%10.

49、0%75%66%2.0%56%85%Latin AmericaMexico62Brazil115Colombia242.5%(+)(+)(+)75%77%Pricing expected to increase on improving demand Limited improvement expected given low utilisation rate.Pricing expected to further increase in near-term3.3%3.0%50%60%70%84%Source: J. P. Morgan. Consolidation: Combined mar

50、ket share of the top 3 players.J.P. Morgan Global Economic OutlookTable 2: Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Economic OutlookSource: J. P. Morgan (Global Data Watch on 29 Nov 2019)9Special Focus 9Special Focus on Supply DynamicsJPM Proprietary Global Supply DatabaseWe had introduced the J.P. Morgan prop

51、rietary global cement supply database in our second edition of the Global Cement Insights report. In this version, we update the announced supply additions database and make the following key conclusions:Key ConclusionsOverall rate of capacity addition announcements has been broadly similar to the p

52、ace last year with:Continued lack of intentions to increase supply in developed markets(US and WesternEurope)Sustained pace of capacity addition announcements in EM, though the data is mixed by region dueto:minimal intentions in EasternEuropehigher announcements in Latin America and Middle EastAfric

53、aslowdown in intentions in Asia but to more normalizedlevelsConsiderable grinding capacity addition announcements accounting for around 40% of the total announcements in2019The top five markets in terms of absolute supply addition are mostly from Asia.While as a percentage of existing capacity, the

54、top five markets from a supply addition perspective are mostly fromAfrica.As we had highlighted, incremental returns on new capacity had broadly declined over the recent years and have indeed resulted in a slowdown in clinker capacity addition announcements, which has acted as support to the average

55、 margins in some emerging markets over the last 12-24 months, although we note that this is not the generalized case and there are a few markets which saw difficult margins as a result of capacity additions, particularly in the North African region. With incremental returns on new capacity remaining

56、 at low levels, we expect clinker capacity addition to be minimal while increased grinding capacity is likely to result in higher utilisation of the clinkercapacity.We rank individual markets according to their levels of utilisation rates and expected supply addition, which help in identifying attra

57、ctive markets vs. those likely headed towards a potential margincollapse.Figure 6: Global Cement Capacity Additions ADJUSTED (ex-China)3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%201420152016201720182019Total ex-ChinaFigure 7: EM Cement Capacity Additions ADJUSTED (ex-China)6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%2014201520162

58、0172018Eastern Europe Latin America Asia ex-China Middle EastAfricaSource:J.P.Morgan.Source: J.P. Morgan.Figure 8: Supply Addition vs. Capacity UtilisationFigure 9: Incremental returns on new supply seem to have troughed30%2018 Utilisation Rate (%)2018 Utilisation Rate (%)20%10%0%2013201420152016201

59、720182019EasternEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastAfricaAsiaSource: J.P. Morgan.2019-2021 Supply Addition (%)Source: International Cement Review and J.P. Morgan.Table 3: Top Five Markets in absolute terms from a supply perspectivemtCapacity additions scheduled for2019-21Capacityin2018%India68.5475.014%Phi

60、lippines23.737.963%Vietnam18.4124.915%Nigeria13.048.027%Pakistan12.659.421%Source: J.P. Morgan.Table 4: Top Five Markets as a % of existing capacity from a supply perspectivemtCapacity additions scheduled for2019-21Capacity in 2018%Cameroon4.04.393%Tanzania7.011.163%Philippines23.737.963%Kenya5.310.