有色金屬-金屬及金屬新材料行業(yè)9月策略：政策落地看銅鋁鋼黃金預(yù)期兌現(xiàn)中-廣發(fā)證券宮帥,王樂-20230903

有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值免責(zé)聲明發(fā)現(xiàn)價值金屬及金屬新金屬及金屬新材料行業(yè)9月策略政策落地看銅鋁鋼，黃金預(yù)期兌現(xiàn)中核心觀點(diǎn)：廠高達(dá)資源、赤峰黃金等。池級碳酸鋰價格下跌25.05%至20.80萬元/噸，氫氧化鋰價格下跌池，制造業(yè)韌性較強(qiáng)，密切關(guān)注9月需求改善情況。建議況不及預(yù)期。業(yè)評級告日期相對市場表現(xiàn)3-09-031/2203/2305/2307/237%1/2203/2305/2307/232%-7% 有色金屬滬深300SFCCENoBOB2136627shuaigfcomcn03617請注意，王樂并非香港證券及期貨事務(wù)監(jiān)察委員會的注冊持牌人，不可在香港從事受監(jiān)管活動。金屬及金屬新材料行業(yè):黃金金屬及金屬新材料行業(yè):堅(jiān)定金屬及金屬新材料行業(yè):堅(jiān)守23-08-2723-08-202023-08-12陳琪henqiwei@黃士uangshihan@月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值司估值和財(cái)務(wù)分析表稱碼報(bào)告日期級合理價值(元/股)2023E2024E2023E2024E2023E2024E2023E2024E神火股份.SZ/10/1703.423.634.994.712.972.860.SZ/08/300.750.869.087.924.503.978.SH/07/311.471.508.828.653.943.999.SH/09/010.580.6510.979.784.103.82.SZ/08/2931.581.7900銀泰黃金.SZ/08/180.580.6224.8423.246.SH/08/251.852.2610.208.712.SH.73/03/282.933.5700金鉬股份8.SH/08/210.910.997.607.1100.SZ/08/17.390.901.2439.0428.3431.2022.950.SZ/08/231.361.396.636.46.SZ/03/1931.731.978.557.515.134.6500.SZ/08/231.361.598.747.473.673.337.SH5/08/3030.530.7749.5334.0911.959.79K.69/08/280.490.609.547.814.933.98K/08/29.920.450.478.468.074.423.88K/09/071.902.244.113.491.400.67K/08/300.580.84K.00/08/316.633.752.213.11贛鋒鋰業(yè)K/08/314.884.037.689.30按照最新收盤價計(jì)算月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值 (一)基本金屬：國內(nèi)一攬子“穩(wěn)經(jīng)濟(jì)”政策密集出臺提振信心，美聯(lián)儲如期加息，預(yù) 價高位運(yùn)行或超預(yù)期 8 發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值表索引 發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值 月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值一、核心觀點(diǎn)計(jì)基本金屬價格震蕩上行人可向承貸金融機(jī)構(gòu)提出申請，由該金融機(jī)構(gòu)新發(fā)放貸款置換存量首套住房商業(yè)性鋅：月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值E(三)貴金屬：美國就業(yè)市場壓力漸顯，金價中長期上行預(yù)期繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)及美元、美債收益率等高頻數(shù)據(jù)。月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值(四)能源金屬：需求韌性依舊，鋰價高位運(yùn)行或超預(yù)期d(五)其他小金屬：鉬價上行，密切關(guān)注8月需求改善情況鎢：鎢價上漲ind月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值二、有色金屬行業(yè)8月表現(xiàn)指數(shù)(上漲2.78%)，收于13286.66點(diǎn)；申萬小金屬指數(shù)(下跌10.00%)，收于000000/8/31/2/28/8/31/2/2800%%%%%%0%0%0%.4800000/8/31/2/28/8/31/2/28%%%%%%%%%鋼鋼月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值-10%-12%%-10%-15%月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值8%8%6%4%2%0%-10%-15%100、標(biāo)普金屬與礦業(yè)與金甲蟲指數(shù)004,50025,000000000015,0002,0001,0009,0000/12/31022/8/312022/10/31/12/31022/8/312022/10/312023/2/282023/4/30月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值%)月漲跌累計(jì)年漲跌-10%-15%銅鋁鉛鋅錫鎳金銀月31日40%20% 月漲跌累計(jì)年漲跌鏑鋱鎢鉬銻鋰鍺鎂鈦銦鐠釹鏑鋱鎢鉬銻鋰鍺鎂鈦銦月31日月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值三、金屬價格格至今鋰碳酸鋰(電池級)05%2%7%7%鈷09%1%MB鈷(高級)6%MB鈷(低級)6%鎳硫酸鎳%0%.0000%%噸00%銅00%6%噸0000%鋁500%8%噸%鉛00%%噸鋅0000%4%噸.005%錫.00000%噸0.00.00%6%鈦%0%鈦精礦03%錳%8%鍺鍺錠1%銻銻錠鈮鈮克031%鎂鎂錠金0%克2.46銀5%/千克50%5%8%鎢鎢精礦%鉬45%-50%鉬精礦/噸度35.00月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值00000LME銅庫存(左軸，噸)LME銅價(右軸，美元/噸)00000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31,000000LME鉛庫存(左軸，噸)LMELME鉛價(右軸，美元/噸)0/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/3100000LME鋅庫存(左軸，噸)LME鋅價(右軸，美元/噸)0000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/3100000SHFESHFE銅價(右軸，元/噸)00000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/3100000SHFESHFE鉛價(右軸，元/噸)/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/3100,000000SHFESHFE鋅價(右軸，元/噸)000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值0LME鋁庫存(左軸，噸)LME鋁價(右軸，美元/噸)000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31,000000LME錫價(左軸，美元/噸)LME錫庫存(右軸，噸)0000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/3100000LME鎳庫存(左軸，噸)LME鎳價(右軸，美元/噸)00000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/310,00000000SHFESHFE鋁價(右軸，元/噸)000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/3100000SHFESHFE錫價(右軸，元/噸),000,00000000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/3100000SHFESHFE鎳價(右軸，元/噸)00000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值454035302520151050454035302520151050LiCO噸)00,000000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31長江有色市場：鈷(元/噸)00,000000/08/31/08/31/08/31/08/31長江有色市場：硫酸鎳(元/噸),000000/08/31/08/31/08/31/08/31LiOH00,000000/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31MB鈷：合金級(美元/磅)MB鈷：合金級(美元/磅)MB鈷：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)級(美元/磅)/31/08/31鍺錠(元/千克)00000/08/31/08/31/08/31/08/31發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值8642000000/8/31/8/31長江有色市場：電解錳(元/噸),000,000000002021/08/312022/08/312023/08/31SHFE銀(元/千克，左)SHFE銀(元/千克，左)255,000000/8/30/8/30/8/30/8/30/8/30鈦精礦(元/噸)000/08/31/08/31/08/31/08/31SHFE金490(元/克，左) (美元/盎司，2500440200039015003401000290500240/8/300/8/30 /8/30 /8/3065%黑鎢精礦(萬元/噸，左)445%鉬精礦(元/噸度，右)/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值50(萬元/(萬元/噸)/8/31/8/31/8/3100(萬元/噸，左) (萬元(萬元/噸，左) 氧化鐠釹(萬元(萬元/噸，右)00/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31/8/31格至今鋼格指數(shù):普鋼:綜合噸06.0000%價格指數(shù):普鋼:螺紋噸0%7%價格指數(shù):普鋼:線材噸18.0006%價格指數(shù):普鋼:熱卷噸19.00%價格指數(shù):普鋼:中厚噸%8%價格指數(shù):普鋼:冷板噸99.00%價格指數(shù):普鋼:鍍鋅噸64.000%6%價格指數(shù):普鋼:華東噸73.000%9%價格指數(shù):普鋼:華南噸95.0000%4%價格指數(shù):普鋼:華北噸26.000%價格指數(shù):普鋼:中南噸48.000%4%價格指數(shù):普鋼:東北噸76.000%7%價格指數(shù):普鋼:西南噸96.00%4%鐵礦石：鐵礦石噸5%價：焦炭噸000%1%鋼-噸000%1%月報(bào)|有色金屬發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值0021-0821-1222-0422-0822-1223-040002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31萬噸)(右軸)00001,0005000008-3108-3108-3108-31%%%%%%%%%%%%%2021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31期貨收盤價(活躍合約):鐵礦石(單位：元/噸)00,000,0000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31500000000312022-08-312023-08-31發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31中國:蘭格鋼鐵:價格:三級螺紋鋼(單位：元/噸)000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31中國:蘭格鋼鐵:價格:熱軋卷(單位：元/噸)0000008-3108-3108-3108-310%2021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31中國:蘭格鋼鐵:價格:高線(單位：元/噸)000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31中國:蘭格鋼鐵:價格:中厚板(單位：元/噸)000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值中國:蘭格鋼鐵:價格:冷軋卷(單位：元/噸)000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31蘭格鋼鐵:價格:華東(單位：元/噸)000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31蘭格鋼鐵:價格:華北(單位：元/噸)0000008-3108-3108-3108-31中國:蘭格鋼鐵:價格:鍍鋅板(單位：元/噸)000002021-08-312022-08-312023-08-31蘭格鋼鐵:價格:西北(單位：元/噸)000002021-08-312022-08-31