東盟與世界：大到不容忽視

1、By: Joseph Incalcaterra and James PomeroyEconomicsGlobalNovember 2019 HYPERLINK / ASEAN and the world Too big to ignoreWith booming demographics,an infrastructure spending spree, and FDI renaissance, ASEANs global relevance is rising sharplyWith ASEANs share of global GDP set to rise to 8% by 2030 i

2、n PPP terms, investors can no longer overlook the regionWe go through the main themes where the regions global influence is on clear displayPlay video withJoseph Incalcaterra and James PomeroyDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in th

3、e Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Executive summaryToo big to ignoreFor large periods in the last two millennia, Southeast Asia was the centre of global commerce: nearly all trade between East and West flowed through the Straits of Malacca at one point or another

4、, facilitated by traders from a host of Hindu, Buddhist, and Muslim empires that reigned from these shores. By the 21st century, a still-diverse ASEAN is witnessing a renaissance as it once again plays a dominant role in global trade. Only this time, the focus is on semiconductors and services rathe

5、r than spices and silk.However, for many investors, ASEAN is still but a footnote to the global growth story. That view is likely to change as the diverse bloc of ten countries from wealthy Singapore to expansive Indonesia and newly integrated Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar (see: ASEAN Perspectives: Th

6、e last frontier) grows in importance. Over the next five years alone, ASEAN is set to add nearly as much to global output as the Eurozone, and if policymakers enact the right reforms the region can lift its share of global GDP to as much as 5% by 2030 in nominal USD terms and more than 8% in PPP ter

7、ms.In this report we outline the growing significance that ASEAN will garner on the global stage. We look at its many growth engines and assess where the risks and bottlenecks are.A young, fast-growing and urbanising population is just one part of the story. Based on UN population estimates, ASEAN w

8、ill be home to more than 725m people by 2030 one in every 12 people in the world and with a median age of just 33. And the region is urbanising as quickly as anywhere on earth, bringing more people within reach of public services, with better jobs and opportunities than heretofore.But theres far mor

9、e to it than that.In addition to the demographic boom, we believe ASEAN is set to see a surge in investment after years of neglect (see: ASEAN Perspectives: The next investment cycle). Indeed, investment is already flooding in from a mixture of growing public infrastructure spending, booming manufac

10、turing FDI commitments, Chinas Belt & Road Initiative, and Japanese infrastructure financing (see: ASEAN Perspectives: Keeping up with FDI and Re-assessing Belt and Road. All these factors not only raise these countries potential growth and stand to improve per capita incomes, but also provide the i

11、ndustrial foundation for a bigger role to play in global trade.Integration across ASEAN is the third key part of the story, with the move towards the seamless movement of goods, services and people across the regions national borders. While this process may be occurring at a slower pace than we orig

12、inally hoped for, it would nonetheless be foolish to ignore the benefits of past and future integration. In addition to the gains from the eventual realisation of the ambitious ASEAN Economic Community (see: ASEAN Economic Community: The next level of economic integration), we believe progress in fi

13、nancial sector integration can have tangible benefits for growth. ASEAN banks will increasingly have preferential access to regional markets, which should boost financial penetration.ASEAN also happens to be a driving force for global trade integration in an era beset with growing protectionism. For

14、 example, the worlds largest free trade agreement in the making, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), has ASEAN firmly at its core, pulling together the countries with which the bloc already has separate free trade agreements. Four ASEAN economies are signing members of the CPTPP,

15、 with two others interested in joining.At the same time, individual countries continue to push for free trade deals. Vietnam recently signed a landmark free trade deal with the European Union, while Indonesia and the Philippines are looking to do the same.The region is already very much open to FDI

16、and trade. In 2018, ASEAN attracted a greater share of FDI than China (almost 11% of global FDI) and, based on the latest forward-looking FDI data, this trend is likely to continue, driven in party by US-China trade tensions (see: ASEAN Perspectives: Trade wars, this time is different). A large and

17、growing electronics industry, including a strong tie-in to global semiconductor supply chains that gives the region its global industrial significance, enables ASEANs foundries to export nearly 35% of processor and controller chips globally and nearly half of all amplifier chips while Samsung now as

18、sembles most of its smartphones in Vietnam (see: ASEAN Perspectives: All about semis).Moreover, the regions industry composition helps position it to take advantage of future global growth trends such as 5G-adoption and the electric vehicle supply chain.ASEAN remains a key player in the global commo

19、dity space. Although countries dont rely as heavily as they once did on commodities such as oil, rubber, nickel, or palm oil, the region nonetheless plays a significant role on the global stage especially Indonesia. There is scope for this to grow further thanks in part to the regions vast nickel de

20、posits, as we explain in the Commodities section of this report.But of course, its not all positive.There are a number of risks to the outlook for the region. The pace of reform, infrastructure investment and regional integration may not be quick enough, and growth may disappoint once more. We could

21、 see a demographic dividend become a demographic drag if a sufficient number of jobs cant be created, especially in the regions more populous nations: Indonesia and the Philippines. Such a scenario could entail risks related to political unrest and growing inequality.These risks notwithstanding, ASE

22、ANs influence is likely only to rise further given its strategic geopolitical location, its growing industries, and an unstoppable wave of new spenders coming from the region. Global corporations and investors will not fail to take note of the region, a boon for local asset markets. We estimate that

23、 ASEAN GDP as a whole should grow by close to 4.5% per year out to 2030 in real terms numbers that much of the world will envy.Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Executive summary1 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Too big to ignore1 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Growing significance5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Starting

24、 to matter for global growth5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 A big part of the worlds population7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 The ASEAN story10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 All the ingredients10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Integration and reforms16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Trading nations at heart19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250

25、008 No newcomer to trade19Who does ASEAN trade with today? 25 ASEAN: a force for regionaltrade liberalisation26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 ASEAN integration: It matters29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Commodities33 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Commodity complication33Palm oil: ASEAN successstory or future liabili

26、ty?35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 ASEAN Demographics39 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Young populations, booming39Case study: Philippineoverseas workers44 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 ASEAN urbanisation47 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Disclosure appendix54 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Disclaimer56ASEAN nations: Key factsASEAN

27、 nations account forc9%of the worlds potentialworkforceBy 2030, ASEAN countries could account for roughly8% of global GDPin PPP terms and nearly 5% in nominal USD terms if reforms are successfulMyanmarVietnamGDP per capita60% of GDPin the region isin the region is roughly 1/3 of theexportsglobal ave

28、rageLaosTourism is a growing opportunity for ASEAN nations- nearly 14% ofGDP in ThailandThailandCambodiaPhilippinesBruneiMalaysiaSingaporePapua New GuineaIndonesiaTimor Leste and Indonesia adds more than Germany each year the Philippines nearly as much as SpainThailand and Malaysia add more than Ita

29、ly.ASEAN countries are adding more to global demand:By 2030The population of ASEAN nationswill be 725mwith a median age of just 33Trend growth across the regionshould be between4-4.5%Urbanisation rates are expected torise by 10pptsin most countries Source: HSBC estimates Growing significanceASEAN co

30、untries will account for more than 8% of world GDP by 2030 on PPP termsbut already adds more to growth than most of Europeas this importance continues to rise as potential growth stays highStarting to matter for global growthIn both China and the world: New frontiers, fresh connections (19 May 2016)

31、 and India and the world: Stronger roots, greater reach (12 September 2017) we highlighted how both nations were becoming major players in driving global growth. In terms of rising importance, ASEAN is next. The intergovernmental organisation, The Association of Southeast Asian Nations consists of t

32、en states: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. All ten countries are very different, speaking different languages, with different currencies and political systems and while the individual country stories are key, the bloc as whole is on

33、e that is quickly gaining more global importance.1. ASEAN comprises 10 nations 2. that are very differentLaosVietnamCambodiaPhilippinesBrunei IndonesiaMy anmarThailandMalay siaSingaporeCountryPopulation (m)GDP (USDbn) Brunei0.4415 Cambodia16.526 Indonesia2701075 Laos7.120 Malaysia32.5365 Myanmar54.3

34、74 Philippines108332 Singapore5.9350 Thailand69.3484Vietnam97.4241ASEAN6612982ASEANSource: HSBCNote: GDP is nominal value for 2018Source: National Sources, Wikimedia commons, HSBCThe ASEAN bloc currently accounts for around 2.8% of global GDP, but this is changing quickly: by 2022, ASEAN as a whole

35、will account for more of global GDP than the UK, Italy and France, countries which collect far more of the attention of investors. By 2030, on a conservative base case, the bloc will account for 4% of global GDP and dwarf the size of other large European countries, and this could rise to as much as

36、6% if reforms help to lift underlying growth rates.As we show in chart 3, on PPP terms, ASEAN will account for as much as 8% of global GDP.ASEAN as a whole is becoming more important%ASEAN share of World GDP%998877665544332211and bigger than economies that get far more attention%Share of global GDP%

37、5544332211001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Nominal USDPPPASEANFranceUKItaly 200020192030Source: IMF, HSBC estimatesSource: IMF, HSBC estimatesWhile the ASEAN bloc is still small on a global scale, its role in the global economy is increasing with the 4%-plus growth rates for the region

38、set to lift both the size and contribution to growth in the coming years. By 2023, the ASEAN bloc will account for nearly as much of global growth as the Eurozone, and based on our longer-term forecasts, it should overtake the Eurozone in terms of contributions to global growth by 2030, given the fa

39、ster trend growth rates.ASEAN is close to overtaking the Eurozone as a contributor to global growthpptsContribution to global growth, selected years1.00ppts1.000.800.800.600.600.400.40020002005ASEAN201020182023fEurozone2028f0.00Source: HSBC calculations, IMFAnd its not just total GDP wher

40、e ASEAN is starting to matter on the global stage. Domestic growth is picking up sharply and is now adding to global demand. ASEAN consumer spending is already higher than that in France or Italy (data which get more global attention) and is set to overtake the UK in the coming years. In 2000, ASEAN

41、 consumer spending was only 30% of that of the UK, and by 2021 it will likely be greater. As GDP per capita rises, a new wave of middle class consumers can be unlocked, helping to create more domestic, consumer-led growth.ASEAN consumers are starting to matter as they get steadily wealthier%Share of

42、 global consumption 6543210%000s PPP6USD305254203152101500GDP per Capita000s PPP USD302520151050ASEANFranceUKItaly 200020192030Note: Based on assumption that consumption growth rises at GDP growth pace 2018-3019801990200020102020ASEANMainland ChinaIndiaSource: HSBC estimates, World BankSource: IMFA

43、big part of the worlds populationThe region can become a big player on the global stage due to its fast-growing and large population. 9% of the worlds working-age population live in ASEAN, with the total population estimated to be around 660m in 2019. This is set to rise to 725m by 2030 and possibly

44、 even just shy of 800m by 2050. We outline on page 11 why this is so key to the future of growth in the region and on page 40, look at the regions demographics in more detail.ASEAN accounts for roughly 9% of the worlds working-age population%ASEANs share of global population%10109988776655441950 195

45、5 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Children (65)Source: UN Population DivisionIn most of the markets, the demographics are favourable with the share of the population that is of working-age set to keep rising over the course of the next de

46、cade. There are two notable exceptions Thailand and Singapore where the fertility rate is very low and working-age populations are starting to shrink (Thailands will shrink in 2019 and Singapore in 2022), but both these countries benefit from tourism and immigration respectively, which may limit any

47、 demographic drag to growth.This bodes well for trend growth across the region. Our model from The World in 2030: Our long-term projections for 75 countries (25 September 2018) favours countries with a low starting point in terms of GDP per capita, favourable demographics and relatively high-quality

48、 institutions. Most of the ASEAN nations fare well in this sort of modelling: particularly Philippines and Vietnam, which are coming off lower bases. Indonesia, which makes up around half of the ASEANpopulation is also likely to see its growth rate settle just below 5% per annum over the next decade

49、 an assumption that may prove too conservative if the government can deliver crucial reforms (see: Escaping the 5% trap: Indonesias task ahead, 28 June 2019). The size of the economy is set to overtake in nominal size Spain by 2030 and is already adding as much as Germany to global demand in 2019 an

50、d 2020.Trend growth should be in the mid-4% range for ASEAN as a whole2018-232023-282028-302018202320282030Indonesia1075135517101880Thailand3.63.02.4484576667700Malaysia365446546597Singapore2.52.01.9350396436454Philippines332432571644Vietnam241312412464Myanmar4.64

51、.24.27492114123Cambodia26344550Laos20253236Brunei15161616ASEAN2982368545494965US20413223012420125183China14093182082367525957Japan5167533455125550Germany4212458848544941UK2936317934243523India2848383651705858 G

52、rowth (% Yr, real) GDP (2018 USDbn) Source: HSBC estimates from The World in 2030. Note: The same model is applied to Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Brunei. Ranked by 2018 GDP in USD.And these numbers have potential to be even higher. We could see substantial reforms that allow faster growth in key cou

53、ntries the region, as we discuss later in this report. We could see a number of structurally favourable drivers support growth too urbanisation rates could rise and support the productivity of this fast growing population, while the spread of smartphones could help to lift education rates, healthcar

54、e access and productivity, all of which could mean higher growth rates and a faster pace of convergence. With such reforms, the regions growth rates over the coming decade could be 0.5-1.0ppts higher by country, lifting real GDP growth in the region to just shy of 5% per year. This would be enough t

55、o lift the region to roughly 5% of global GDP by 2030 on nominal USD terms and more than 8% of world GDP in PPP terms (from 6.5% today).Even over the course of the next five years the contribution of these countries in terms of driving global growth is substantial comparable to large European countr

56、ies whereas in the past they may have been seen to be simple rounding errors on the global growth sum.ASEAN economies growing size means they can move the dial on global growth2018 USDbnAverage addition to global GDP, 2019-23 70605040302010IndonesiaGermanyUKFranceSpainPhilippinesNetherlands02018 USD

57、bn70605040302010ThailandMalaysiaItaly0Source: HSBC estimates based on HSBC and IMF forecastsAnd there is lots of room to catch up although it varies greatly by country. The current GDP per capita (in 2010 USD) in Cambodia is 19% of that of Thailand, which in itself is just over half of that of Malay

58、sia. Brunei and then Singapore are far wealthier than the others on a per-capita basis. The average for ASEAN is around the same as Chinas was in the year 2010, and if we see a similar period of growth in ASEAN over the next twenty years then by 2040 incomes would be 60% higher across the region.Man

59、y ASEAN countries have a lot of room to grow into000 USDGDP per Capita (2018 unless specified otherwise, real 2010USD)1412108642CambodiaMyanmarLaosVietnamIndiaPhilippinesIndonesiaASEANMainland China(2010)ThailandMainland ChinaWorldBrazil0000 USD1412108631.458.242MalaysiaBruneiSingapore0Source: World

60、 BankThe economies in the region are all at very different stages of their development, with some countries being much more agriculturally focused and some much more service heavy (table 12). But one near-constant is that all the countries are reasonably open (with the exceptions of Indonesia and My