航空的未來場景

1、Table of Content HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Summary 5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 About this study 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Setting the scene 11Scenarios HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Scenario 1: Mad Max 25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Scenario 2: Tech for You 33 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Scenario 3: Stripping Down 41

2、 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Scenario 4: Optimising Together 47 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 The Future of Aviation for EREA 55 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Moving forward towards a technological strategy for R&D 61 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 EREA, its mission, goal and strategy 63Colophon 67SummaryThe “EREA Vision

3、Study The Future of Aviation in 2050” is the update of the previously released “EREA vision for the future Towards the future generation of Air Transport System” published in 2010. This new study, describing EREAs own vision, has as objec- tives: (i) to share EREAs vision with external stakeholders

4、to help enhance cooperation; (ii) to form the basis for EREA to support policy makers at national and European level; (iii) to motivate EREA and its members to work together to common and ambitious goals; and(iv) to engage with the general public, particularly on societal needs and sustainability fo

5、r the aviation sector.The outcome of the study is presented in two parts:a first document, which describes the current societal and aviation context and imagines four alternative future sce- narios for 2050, exploring how aviation could contribute in each scenario;a second document, which provides t

6、he technical over- view of the research and development (R&D) activities needed to realise EREAs vision for the Future of Aviation.In the first document, four future, alternative scenarios are presented, built in a series of workshops by a range of EREA experts in the spring of 2020.Although the fou

7、r scenarios are all different, they result in common themes about the future of the air transport system:The integration of aviation into a broader, comprehen- sive, transport system. Transportation itself and all ancil- lary activities will be integrated, resulting in an intercon- nected, multi-mod

8、al transportation solution.Drones and urban air mobility vehicles, will become part of the everyday panorama. Their applications will vary greatly depending on specific societal conditions and will cover already-emerging markets, such as logistics and security, and others which have not yet been for

9、eseen.An increase in the costs, and consequently in the price of aviation, both for producers and users. Whether it is driv- en by low demand, internalisation of external costs or by increases in the price of (customised) products, flying will become more expensive.An increase in alternative technol

10、ogies to classic aviation and mobility. Whether out of security concerns or sustain- ability awareness, travelling and commuting will be reduced and be replaced by digital interaction or by differ- ent forms of transportation.An increased awareness and demand for security and safety and an increase

11、in related challenges. Either caused by societal instability, by increased aversion to perceived risk or by increases in traffic, safety and security will be paramount aspects for aviation (and all transport modes).The Scenarios for the Future of AviationMad Maxaviation: a luxury for the few in a wo

12、rld of consumerism, challenges and conflictA world characterised by deglobalisation and fragmen- tation; extreme nationalism and populism; instability; protectionist economies; high levels of inequality; low sustainability; climate crisis; low levels of R&D.Aviation is an expensive, luxurious and hi

13、ghly desirable product but is unreliable due to climate change and different sources of instability. There are few industrial players with no innovation and limited R&D.Tech for Youaviation: side by side alternative technology in islands of choice, competition, and customisationA world characterised

14、 by multipolarity and competition; high-cost, low economy-of-scale production offset by widespread automation; market driven by consumer choice and desires; free market economies; high R&D with national and short-term focus; different approach- es to and meaning of sustainability in different island

15、s. Mobility is flexible with air transport part of the local, intermodal transport system. The overall approach is to strive for door-to-door mobility.Stripping Downaviation: sustainability achieved by a world of centralised com- mand and controlA world characterised by political stability; command

16、economies; centralised government; prescriptive regula- tion; slow but stable economic growth; standardisation and uniformity; prioritised and government-directed sustainability.There is limited and highly controlled mobility due to high prices, security threats, flight shaming and regula- tion. Sus

17、tainable intermodal generic solutions are enforced. There are few industrial players due to highcost and low demand.Optimising Togetheraviation: unlimited freedom in a world of common purpose, col- laboration and cohesionA world characterised by unification and harmony; glob- al cooperation and coll

18、aboration; global legal and insti- tutional frameworks; high stability and growth; sustain- ability; market-driven economies and liberalisation; high standardisation and confidence.Mobility is growing and is fully sustainable. Different avi- ation solutions are available for all journey segments fro

19、m UAM through formation flying to sub-orbital flights.INTRODUCTIONAbout this studyThis study has created EREAs vision for the Future for Aviation in the year 2050. This Future is used to understand the potential impacts on aeronautical research and develop- ment (R&D) activities. The study was perfo

20、rmed in the context provided by Flightpath 20501, describing Europes vision for aviation alongside the more detailed strategic research and innovation agenda2 (SRIA) developed by the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE).The complete study is presented in two docume

21、nts:this report, which describes the current societal and aviation context and imagines four alternative scenarios for how the world could look in 2050;a second document, which provides the technical overview of the R&D activities needed to realise EREAs vision for the Future of Aviation.Aviation is

22、 a vast subject that incorporates many different definitions often for the same terms; the definitions used in this document are those that align most closely with EREAs mission in civil aeronautics. In particular, throughout this study, Aviation means the Civil Air Transport System, encompassing th

23、e movement of civilian passengers and cargo in the Earths atmosphere, from both private and com- mercial perspectives. Defence and/or space aspects are only touched upon when they are foreseen as having significant impact on the civil panorama and are not investigated in depth.The outlook year selec

24、ted for this study is 2050. Although sev- eral studies have already been produced which give a view on how aviation might evolve to be in 2050 or what aviation should aim at becoming in 2050, a number of significant changes in the political and societal landscape indicated the need to re-evaluate th

25、ose studies and re-assess the potentialrange of Futures of Aviation in the light of new events.The study is broad and non-specific in geographical scope. The scenarios can be applied to global, regional or national scales or to international blocs and could be mixed to allow for different developmen

26、t paths in different places.This study is directed to connect and to engage all of the dif- ferent stakeholders essential for a healthy R&D ecosystem.First, and most important, the study aims to enthral and moti- vate EREA and its individual research establishments, as rep- resentatives of the Europ

27、ean Research Community. The vision has been created by EREA experts for EREA experts, in order to connect all EREA members, at all levels, from the Board to the youngest of the researchers. The vision should be used to guide EREA through the decisions which will need to be made and to inspire the ER

28、EA members.Second, this study enables the EREA vision to be presented to its external stakeholders. Several groups are active in Europe, with the common interest of maintaining European aviations competitiveness, safety and security, whilst mini- mising negative environmental impacts and maximising

29、posi- tive socio-economic benefits. These groups include ACARE, the Clean Sky Joint Undertaking, the SESAR Joint Undertaking, the European Aeronautics Science Network (EASN) and oth-1 Flightpath 2050, Europes Vision for Aviation, Report of the High Level Group on Aviation Research,https:/ec.europa.e

30、u/transport/sites/transport/files/modes/air/doc/flightpath2050.pdf2 Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda, ACARE, HYPERLINK /sria /sriaers. Even though there is a shared purpose, multiple voices with different emphases may hinder even the most robust of messages. By sharing its vision, EREA hopes

31、 to create a plat- form for dialogue to reach a single, communal vision and boost cooperation.With a strong, coherent and common vision, EREA and its stakeholders can then approach policy makers at national and European level to support their decision-making process, as a credible, coherent, indepen

32、dent and trustworthy voice. Engaging policy makers and government bodies will ensure that R&D outcomes are not confined to laboratories and aca- demic publications, but are used practically and effectively in a broad, multi-interest environment to maximise positive socio-economic and environmental i

33、mpact.Finally, this study wants to engage the general public by showing that EREA and its members have an ambitious vision which can ensure a thriving aviation industry without com- promising on societal needs and sustainable goals3. The study means to show the public that their concerns are also ER

34、EAs, and that research choices will be made together, towards a common goal.The scenarios described in this document are the outcome of a series of workshops performed in the spring of 2020 and attended by EREA members experienced in scenario thinking and future strategy. The context in which those

35、workshops took place is given, together with a short description of the workshops themselves. Given the background of the partici- pants in this study, this vision should be seen as the opinion of EREA R&D experts, from different technical and cultural backgrounds, all functioning at the interface o

36、f different spheres of influence: academia, industry and governments. No pretence of scientific validation has to be assumed.3 /goalsSetting the scene.on Civil AviationAviation as we know it, with airports and passenger flights, is a relatively young concept. Since its beginnings around a cen- tury

37、ago, civil aviation has been steadily making the world smaller, more connected and accessible to its citizens. Currently, there is no other way of travelling quickly and effi- ciently over long distances around the world. Aviation is also by far the safest and most secure means of travel. Given the

38、estimated worldwide air traffic in 2019 of about 39,000,000 flights, the accident rate is one fatal accident per almost two million flights4.Aviation is a strategically important industry to individual sov- ereign States, but it cannot fulfil its potential without a seam- less, global, world network

39、. A specialised United Nations agency, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) works with its 193 member states to manage the governance and administration of the global civil air transport system. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is the glob- al trade association for

40、the worlds airlines. ICAO and IATA promote interoperability and standardisation to support a safe, efficient, secure, economically sustainable and environ- mentally responsible civil aviation sector. In Europe, the European Commission (EC), the European Aviation SafetyAgency (EASA) and EUROCONTROL,

41、all have their roles in the operation of the European aviation single market, regulatory and technical harmonisation, compliance, and research and innovation and external relations.Aviations contribution to the global economy is undisputed. ICAO estimates5 that in 2018, the direct contribution of av

42、ia- tion to the global economy supported 10.2 million jobs and contributed $704 billion to gross domestic product (GDP). If indirect, induced and catalytic effects are included these fig- ures increase to 65.5 million jobs and $2.7 trillion. Within Europe6, the aviation sector directly employs betwe

43、en 1.4 and2.0 million people and contributes 110 billion to the European Unions gross domestic product (GDP). When multi- plier effects are included these figures rise to 4.8 to 5.5 mil- lion jobs and 510 billion respectively.Aviation also makes a significant contribution to social well-being. It en

44、ables citizens mobility, connecting remote and peripheral regions as well as ensuring that these regions are accessible for the delivery of essential supplies, such as food and health care, especially in times of crisis. It also facili- tates cultural links between communities distributed across the

45、 world, in the event of emigration or diaspora. Travel by air4 /2020/01/01/aviation-safety-network-releases-2019-airliner-accident-statistics5 Aviation benefits report, Report of the Industry High Level Group, 20196 An aviation strategy for Europe, Communication from the Commission to the European P

46、arliament, the Council, the EuropeanFigure 1: Comparison of aviation jobs and contribution to GDP for Europe and worldwideis often essential for visiting distant friends and relatives, ena- bling a flexible and mobile workforce. Aviation is one of the critical enablers of tourism, allowing people to

47、 make best use of their leisure time and broadening experience and aware- ness of other cultures.In its beginnings and reflecting its strategic importance, civil aviation was heavily State controlled and governed by trea- ty-like agreements between States on a bilateral basis, under the global ICAO

48、umbrella. From the early 1990s, the sector has been gradually evolving from State-controlled provider perspective to a more consumer-focused industry. This evo- lution started initially through the creation of competitive internal aviation markets within the US and Europe; the relax- ation of bilate

49、ral agreements followed, with some constraints remaining, to govern the travel between some countries or blocs. This progressive liberalisation of the industry is not yet complete on a global scale and is accompanied by continuedstrict regulation to ensure safety, security and global interoperabilit

50、y.Liberalisation, achieved in part through the application of competition law, has resulted in the replacement of restric- tive bilateral air services agreements with open skies agree- ments, and the creation of multilateral common aviation areas, such as the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA). Co

51、mpetition on routes has emerged along with new business models, such as low cost carriers. This has reduced prices the unit price of air travel has reduced by around 80% since 1950 and increased access to air travel for the world popu- lation. What started as a luxury commodity for the rich has beco

52、me highly accessible in both the developed and develop- ing worlds. For example, World Bank data7 shows that global- ly in 1975 there were approximately 432 million air trips with a world population of approximately 4.1 billion. In 2018, there were approximately 4.2 billion air trips with a populati

53、on ofapproximately 7.7 billion.As people become more affluent, their desire to fly also increases. All other things being equal, the chart in Figure 2 shows that, following even small increases in wealth in a large population (indicated by bubble size), developing countries will lead to large increa

54、ses in demand for air travel. It is also in these developing countries, such as India and China, that wealth is increasing the fastest, signalling a potential expo- nential growth of demand for air travel.Traditionally therefore, aviation is a growth industry, albeit with some glitches caused by dis

55、ruptive events, such as eco-nomic crises and the terrorist attack on 9/11. The growth to 2019 is shown in Figure 3. This situation, however, has been challenged by environmental groups and dramatically changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. on Current ChallengesAs would be expected in such competitiv

56、e growth industry, there are direct challenges on capacity, efficiency, quality of service and resilience. As the sector strives to meet increas- ing demand, capacity constraints start to bite. When looking at airspace and airports, this increases congestion and delays, especially at key nodes in th

57、e network, resulting in0.00United Arab EmiratesThailandHong KongNetherlandsNorway0.00Brazil Malaysia GreeceSingaporeColombiaPortugalSpainCanadaChinese TaipeiItalySwedenUnited KingdomPhilippinesTurkeyPolandSwitzerlandViet NamUnited StatesJapanFrance Germany1.00Saudi ArabiaRussian FederaonMexicoKorea,

58、 Republic OfAustraliaChinaSouth Africa0.10IndiaIndonesia0.0110Annual air trips per capita10102030405060708090100GDP per capita (000s US$)Figure 2: Correlation between increase in GDP and increase in annual air trips (Source: Taylor Airey analysis, using data from Airports Council International (ACI)

59、, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Bank, 2019)7 /indicator/IS.AIR.PSGRpoor punctuality and increased costs to airlines and passen- gers alike. Strains on the aeronautical manufacturing indus- try and supply chain have resulted following the high produc- t

60、ion rates set up by aircraft OEMs8,9. As the system starts to operate near to its capacity, the impact of even small disrup- tions is amplified and resilience the ability to mitigate and recover from disruption becomes compromised. Air trans- port is a highly interconnected network, so disruptions c