現(xiàn)金流量與財務(wù)分析知識分享

1、現(xiàn)金流量與財務(wù)分析A-1 Users of Financial InformationnInvestors and Financial AnalystsnMajor part of analysts job is to make a careful study of recent financial statementsnVendors/CreditorsnUse financial information to determine if the firm is expected to make good on loansnManagementnpinpoint strengths and w

2、eaknesses in operationsA-2 Sources of Financial Information (財務(wù)資訊的來源)p.59nAnnual Report (主要的資訊來源) nRequired of all publicly traded firmsnTend to portray firm in a positive light, so tend to biased in favor of managements performancenBrokerage firms and investment advisory services provide reports on

3、 most large firms.nExample: Value Line (價值線), Moodys, S&PA-3 The Orientation of Financial Analysis (財務(wù)分析的導(dǎo)向)p.62nAccounting is concerned with financial statementsnFinance is concerned with using the data contained within financial statements to make decisions (使用財報上的資料去作決策)B The Statement of Cas

4、h Flows (p.63)nConstructed from the Balance Sheet and Income Statementn需要2個連續(xù)年度的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表及當(dāng)年的損益表來形成現(xiàn)金流量表n編表的方式有2種n依據(jù)3個不同的活動(operating, investing, and financing activities)n依據(jù)現(xiàn)金的來源與使用B-2 Business Cash Flows (p.66)nCash Flows RulesnAsset increase use of cashnAsset decrease source of cashnLiability increas

5、e source of cashnLiability decrease use of cashB-3 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows (Example:p.69)-1Belfry CompanyBelfry CompanyBalance SheetIncome StatementFor the period ended 12/31/X2For the period ended 12/31/X2Sales10,000$ 12/31/X112/31/X2COGS6,000$ Cash1,0001,400Gross margin4,000$ Acco

6、unts receivable3,0002,900Inventory2,0003,200Expense1,600$ CURRENT ASSETS6,0007,500Depreciation500$ Fixed assetsEBIT1,900$ Gross4,0006,000Interest400$ Accumulated deprec.-1,000-1,500EBT1,500$ Net3,0004,500Tax500$ TOTAL ASSETS9,00012,000Net Income1,000$ Accounts payable1,5002,100Accruals500400CURRENT

7、LIABILITIES2,0002,500Long-term debt5,0006,200Equity2,0003,300TOTAL CAPITAL7,0009,500TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY9,00012,000AssetsLiabilitiesBelfry CompanyBelfry CompanyBalance SheetIncome StatementFor the period ended 12/31/X2For the period ended 12/31/X2Sales10,000$ 12/31/X112/31/X2COGS6,000$ Cash1

8、,0001,400Gross margin4,000$ Accounts receivable3,0002,900Inventory2,0003,200Expense1,600$ CURRENT ASSETS6,0007,500Depreciation500$ Fixed assetsEBIT1,900$ Gross4,0006,000Interest400$ Accumulated deprec.(1,000)(1,500)EBT1,500$ Net3,0004,500Tax500$ TOTAL ASSETS9,00012,000Net Income1,000$ Accounts payab

9、le1,5002,100Accruals500400CURRENT LIABILITIES2,0002,500Long-term debt5,0006,200Equity2,0003,300TOTAL CAPITAL7,0009,500TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY9,00012,000AssetsLiabilitiesB-3 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows (Example:p.69)-1Also assume firm paid a $500 dividend and sold stock for $800 dur

10、ing the year.B-3 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows (Example:p.69)-2While the firm was profitable, it still had to borrow money and sell stock to finance the increase in Fixed Assets.Belfry CompanyStatement of Cash FlowsFor the period ended 12/31/X2CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIESNet income1,000

11、$ Depreciation500$ Net changes in current accounts(600)$ Cash from operating activities900$ CASH FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIESPurchase of fixed assets(2,000)$ CASH FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIESIncrease in long-term debt1,200$ Sale of stock800$ Dividend paid(500)$ Cash from financing activities1,500$ NET CAS

12、H FLOW400$ Beginning cash balance1,000$ Net cash flow400$ Ending cash balance1,400$ B-4 Free Cash Flows-1 (p.73)nUnder normal conditions most firms generate positive cash flow from operationsnSome of these funds are used to maintain long-run competitive positionnReplace worn-out fixed assetsnPay div

13、idends on Preferred Stock B-4 Free Cash Flows-2(p.73)nFree cash flow (自由現(xiàn)金流量) is the cash generated beyond reinvestment needs (所產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金超過再投資所需的資金)n Free CFs = Net CF non-operating cash requirements (to maintain a long-run competition position)nFree cash flow is the cash available for distribution to c

14、ommon stockholders.C Ratio Analysis (財務(wù)比率分析) p.73-90nComparisonsnHistoryexamine trends (how the value has changed over time)nCompetitioncompare with other firms in the same industrynBudgetcompare actual values with expected or desired valuesC Ratio Analysis-1nCommon Size Statements (共同比報表/同基財務(wù)報表)是將報

15、表中的數(shù)字利用一個共同的基準(zhǔn)轉(zhuǎn)換成百分比，除了能規(guī)避規(guī)模不一的影響外，也可以分解出各會計科目所占的重要性，呈現(xiàn)出結(jié)構(gòu)性的資訊，故稱結(jié)構(gòu)性分析。nCommon size income statementnPresents each line as a percent of revenuenCommon size balance sheetnPresents each line as a percent of total assetsC Ratio Analysis-2nCommon Size Statements (共同比報表)nThe common size analysis leads us

16、 to ask the right questions. It doesnt give us the answers, but it gets our investigation of problems started in the right direction.nCommon size analysis is particularly useful in comparing a firms performance with its own history.nExample: p.74-75C Ratio Analysis-3nTrend analysis by Common-base-ye

17、ar statements (同基年財務(wù)報表)趨勢分析是指選定某一會計年度為基年(base year)，將所欲分析的各年度財務(wù)報表數(shù)額以此基年數(shù)額為相同分母平減， 化為指數(shù)的型態(tài)， 以觀察公司資產(chǎn)、 負(fù)債及損益狀況的消長情形。趨勢分析適合進(jìn)行長期性的分析-多樣本的分析。而轉(zhuǎn)化成指數(shù)值的報表稱為同基年財務(wù)報表。Common Size Statements$%$%Sales2,187,460$ 100.0%150,845$ 100.0%COGS1,203,103$ 55.0%72,406$ 48.0%Gross margin984,357$ 45.0%78,439$ 52.0%Expenses50

18、5,303$ 23.1%39,974$ 26.5%EBIT479,054$ 21.9%38,465$ 25.5%Interest131,248$ 6.0%15,386$ 10.2%EBT347,806$ 15.9%23,079$ 15.3%Tax118,254$ 5.4%3,462$ 2.3%Net Income229,552$ 10.5%19,617$ 13.0%AlphaBetaC-3 Ratios-1 (p.76)nCategories of Ratios (Table 3.1)nLiquidityindicate firms ability to pay its bills in th

19、e short runnAsset Managementshow how the company uses its resources to generate revenue, profit and to avoid costC-3 Ratios-2nCategories of Ratios (Table 3.1)nDebt Management show how effectively the firm has used borrowed funds and whether or not it has a high amount of leveragenProfitability allow

20、 assessment of the companys ability to make moneynMarket Value give an indication of how investors feel about the companys financial futureC-3 Ratios-3n(1) Liquidity ratiosn流動比率(has to exceed 1.0)n速動比率/酸性測驗比率 (不考慮存貨的比率)C-3 Ratios-4n(2) Asset management ratios(資產(chǎn)管理/利用比率)n平均收款期間(days;太高的ACP可能是存在有收不回來的

21、應(yīng)收帳款之暗示)n存貨週轉(zhuǎn)率(times; a higher turnover is better)n固定資產(chǎn)週轉(zhuǎn)率(times(次); 衡量長期績效)n總資產(chǎn)週轉(zhuǎn)率(times(次); 衡量長期績效)C-3 Ratios-5n(3) Debt Management Ratios (債務(wù)管理比率/財務(wù)槓桿比率/長期償債能力):Debt是指長期債務(wù)與流動負(fù)債的總和n負(fù)債比率(比率越高則被投資人視為高風(fēng)險)n負(fù)債對權(quán)益比率 (fixed financial charge & risk)n利息保障倍數(shù)(TIE;比率越高隱含安全性越高)n現(xiàn)金涵蓋比率n固定費(fèi)用涵蓋比率C-3 Ratios-6n

22、Profitability Ratios (獲利能力比率):一般以百分比的方式表示n銷貨報酬率(ROS); profit margin; net profit marginn資產(chǎn)報酬率(ROA)n權(quán)益報酬率(ROE)C-3 Ratios-7nMarket Value Ratios (市價比率)n價盈比(P/E ratio; 越高越好)n市價對帳面價值比 (穩(wěn)健的公司會產(chǎn)生股票市價高於帳面價值)C-3 Ratios-8anDu Pont Equations (杜邦恆等式):利用比率之間的關(guān)係以洞悉營運(yùn)之成功與否Net IncomesalesROA Total AssetssalesorNet IncomesalesROA sales Total AssetsorROE = ROS total asset turnover C-3 Ratios-8bnExtended Du Po