5標準貿(mào)易模型

1、1YOU ARE WELCOME !2International Economics國際經(jīng)濟學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟學(xué)主講：余道先主講：余道先3Chapter 5The Standard Trade Model標準貿(mào)易模型標準貿(mào)易模型4Chapter OrganizationlIntroductionlA Standard Model of a Trading Economy（開放經(jīng)濟的標準模型）（開放經(jīng)濟的標準模型）lInternational Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD Curve （國際收入轉(zhuǎn)移：相對需求曲線的移動）（國際收入轉(zhuǎn)移：相對需求曲線的移動）lT

2、ariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD（關(guān)稅和出口補貼：相對供給曲線和相對需求曲線同時移動）（關(guān)稅和出口補貼：相對供給曲線和相對需求曲線同時移動）lSummary5IntroductionlPrevious trade theories have emphasized specific sources of comparative advantage which give rise to international trade： （先前的貿(mào)易理論強調(diào)了貿(mào)易的起先前的貿(mào)易理論強調(diào)了貿(mào)易的起因因比較優(yōu)勢的特定來源比

3、較優(yōu)勢的特定來源）lDifferences in labor productivity (Ricardian model)lDifferences in resources (specific factors model and Heckscher-Ohlin model)lThe standard trade model is a general model of trade that admits these models as special cases.（標準貿(mào)易模型是一個一般性的模型，而上述模型是標準（標準貿(mào)易模型是一個一般性的模型，而上述模型是標準貿(mào)易模型的特例）貿(mào)易模型的特例）6

4、A Standard Model of a Trading EconomylThe standard trade model is built on four key relationships:lProduction possibility frontier and the relative supply curve（生產(chǎn)可能性邊界和相對供給曲線之間的關(guān)系）（生產(chǎn)可能性邊界和相對供給曲線之間的關(guān)系）lRelative prices and relative demand（相對價格和相對需求之間的關(guān)系）（相對價格和相對需求之間的關(guān)系）lWorld relative supply and wor

5、ld relative demand（世界相對供給和世界相對需求之間的關(guān)系）（世界相對供給和世界相對需求之間的關(guān)系）lTerms of trade and national welfare（貿(mào)易條件對國家福利的影響）（貿(mào)易條件對國家福利的影響）7A Standard Model of a Trading EconomylProduction Possibilities and Relative SupplylAssumptions of the model:lEach country produces two goods, food (F) and cloth (C)lEach country

6、s production possibility frontier is a smooth curve (TT)8A Standard Model of a Trading EconomylProduction Possibilities and Relative SupplylThe point on its production possibility frontier at which an economy actually produces depends on the price of cloth relative to food, PC/PF.(生產(chǎn)可能性邊界上的實生產(chǎn)可能性邊界上

7、的實際產(chǎn)出組合取決于棉布對于糧食的相對價格際產(chǎn)出組合取決于棉布對于糧食的相對價格)lIsovalue lines（等價值線）（等價值線）lLines along which the market value of output is constant9Figure 5-1: Relative Prices Determine the Economys OutputQIsovalue linesTTA Standard Model of a Trading Economy Cloth production, QCFood production, QF10Figure 5-2: How an In

8、crease in the Relative Price of Cloth Affects Relative SupplyQ1VV1(PC/PF)1Q2VV2(PC/PF)2A Standard Model of a Trading EconomyTT Cloth production, QCFood production, QF11lRelative Prices and DemandlThe value of an economys consumption equals the value of its production:PCQC + PFQF = PCDC + PFDF = VlTh

9、e economys choice of a point on the isovalue line depends on the tastes of its consumers, which can be represented graphically by a series of indifference curves. （一國在等產(chǎn)值線上生產(chǎn)點的選擇取決于該國消費者（一國在等產(chǎn)值線上生產(chǎn)點的選擇取決于該國消費者的偏好，而消費者的偏好可以通過一系列的無差異曲線圖的偏好，而消費者的偏好可以通過一系列的無差異曲線圖示出來）示出來）A Standard Model of a Trading Eco

10、nomy12lIndifference curveslEach traces a set of combinations of cloth (C) and food (F) consumption that leave the individual equally well off（無差異曲線是在同一消費效用水平（無差異曲線是在同一消費效用水平上棉布上棉布(C)和糧食和糧食(F)的消費組合的軌跡）的消費組合的軌跡）lThey have three properties:Downward slopingThe farther up and to the right each lies, the

11、higher the level of welfare to which it correspondsEach gets flatter as we move to the rightA Standard Model of a Trading Economy13TTFigure 5-3: Production, Consumption, and Trade in the Standard Model Cloth production, QCFood production, QFQDIndifference curvesFood importsCloth exportsA Standard Mo

12、del of a Trading Economy14lIf the relative price of cloth, PC/PF , increases, the economys consumption choice shifts from D1 to D2.lThe move from D1 to D2 reflects two effects:Income effectSubstitution effectlIt is possible that the income effect will be so strong that when PC/PF rises, consumption

13、of both goods actually rises, while the ratio of cloth consumption to food consumption falls.（有這樣一種可能，即當(dāng)（有這樣一種可能，即當(dāng)PC/PF 提高時，收入效應(yīng)大到使兩種產(chǎn)品的消費都增加，而棉提高時，收入效應(yīng)大到使兩種產(chǎn)品的消費都增加，而棉布消費與糧食消費的比率卻下降）布消費與糧食消費的比率卻下降）A Standard Model of a Trading Economy15TTFigure 5-4: Effects of a Rise in the Relative Price of Cloth

14、Q1VV1(PC/PF)1Q2VV2(PC/PF)2D2D1A Standard Model of a Trading Economy Cloth production, QCFood production, QF16lThe Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of TradelTerms of trade lThe price of the good a country initially exports divided by the price of the good it initially imports. （一國出口產(chǎn)品價格除以該國進口產(chǎn)品

15、價格）（一國出口產(chǎn)品價格除以該國進口產(chǎn)品價格）lA rise in the terms of trade increases a countrys welfare, while a decline in the terms of trade reduces its welfare. （個國家的福利隨著貿(mào)易條件的改善而上升，隨著（個國家的福利隨著貿(mào)易條件的改善而上升，隨著貿(mào)易條件的貿(mào)易條件的 惡化而下降。）惡化而下降。）A Standard Model of a Trading Economy17lDetermining Relative Prices（相對價格的確定）（相對價格的確定）lSup

16、pose that the world economy consists of two countries:lHome (which exports cloth)Its terms of trade are measured by PC/PFIts quantities of cloth and food produced are QC and QFlForeign (which exports food) Its terms of trade are measured by PF/PCIts quantities of cloth and food produced are Q*C and

17、Q*FA Standard Model of a Trading Economy18lTo determine PC/PF , one must find the intersection of world relative supply of cloth and world relative demand.lThe world relative supply curve (RS) is upward sloping because an increase in PC/PF leads both countries to produce more cloth and less food.lTh

18、e world relative demand curve (RD) is downward sloping because an increase in PC/PF leads both countries to shift their consumption mix away from cloth toward food.A Standard Model of a Trading Economy19Figure 5-5: World Relative Supply and DemandRSRDRelative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof

19、cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FA Standard Model of a Trading Economy(PC/PF)1120lEconomic Growth: A Shift of the RS CurvelIs economic growth in other countries good or bad for our nation?（他國的經(jīng)濟增長對本國是好是（他國的經(jīng)濟增長對本國是好是壞？壞？ ）lIt may be good for our nation because it means larger markets for our exports. （會對本國有好

20、處因（會對本國有好處因為這意味著本國的出口開辟了更大的市場）為這意味著本國的出口開辟了更大的市場）lIt may mean increased competition for our exporters.（也意味著本國出口產(chǎn)品面臨的競爭加劇了）（也意味著本國出口產(chǎn)品面臨的競爭加劇了）A Standard Model of a Trading Economy21A Standard Model of a Trading EconomylIs growth in a country more or less valuable when that nation is part of a closel

21、y integrated world economy?（當(dāng)一個國家是世界經(jīng)濟一體化的一員時，（當(dāng)一個國家是世界經(jīng)濟一體化的一員時，國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟的增長會給本國帶來更多的收益還是更少的收國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟的增長會給本國帶來更多的收益還是更少的收益？益？ ）lIt should be more valuable when a country can sell some of its increased production to the world market.（本國生產(chǎn)能力的加強使本國能向世界市場出口更多的（本國生產(chǎn)能力的加強使本國能向世界市場出口更多的產(chǎn)品，那么該國經(jīng)濟增長的積極作用就增強了）產(chǎn)品，那么該國

22、經(jīng)濟增長的積極作用就增強了） lIt is less valuable when the benefits of growth are passed on to foreigners rather than retained at home.（經(jīng)濟增長帶來的收益可能會以本國出口產(chǎn)品價格降低（經(jīng)濟增長帶來的收益可能會以本國出口產(chǎn)品價格降低的形式轉(zhuǎn)移到國外消費者手中而非本國所得，那么該國的形式轉(zhuǎn)移到國外消費者手中而非本國所得，那么該國的經(jīng)濟增長的積極作用就減弱了。的經(jīng)濟增長的積極作用就減弱了。 ）22lGrowth and the Production Possibility FrontierlE

23、conomic growth implies an outward shift of a countrys production possibility frontier (TT).lBiased growth（偏向型增長）（偏向型增長）lTakes place when TT shifts out more in one direction than in the otherlCan occur for two reasons:Technological progress in one sector of the economy Increase in a countrys supply o

24、f a factor of productionA Standard Model of a Trading Economy23Figure 5-6: Biased GrowthTT1TT1TT2TT2A Standard Model of a Trading EconomyCloth production, QCFood production, QF(a) Growth biased toward clothCloth production, QCFood production, QF(b) Growth biased toward food24lRelative Supply and the

25、 Terms of TradelExport-biased growth（出口偏向型增長）（出口偏向型增長）lDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it exports（使（使一國的生產(chǎn)可能性邊界的擴張偏向于出口產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)濟增一國的生產(chǎn)可能性邊界的擴張偏向于出口產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)濟增長）長）lWorsens a growing countrys terms of trade, to the benefit of the rest of the world（惡化了

26、本國的貿(mào)易條件，（惡化了本國的貿(mào)易條件，而使世界其他國家受益）而使世界其他國家受益）A Standard Model of a Trading Economy25A Standard Model of a Trading EconomylImport-biased growth（進口偏向型增長）（進口偏向型增長）lDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it imports（使（使一國的生產(chǎn)可能性邊界的擴張偏向于進口產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)濟增一國的生產(chǎn)可能性邊界的擴

27、張偏向于進口產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)濟增長）長）lImproves a growing countrys terms of trade at the rest of the words expense（改善了本國的貿(mào)易條件，但是（改善了本國的貿(mào)易條件，但是以犧牲世界其他國家的利益為代價的）以犧牲世界其他國家的利益為代價的）26Figure 5-7: Growth and Relative SupplyRelative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1(PC/PF)1RS2(PC/PF)22Relativ

28、e priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS2RD2(PC/PF)2RS1(PC/PF)11(a) Cloth-biased growth(b) Food-biased growthA Standard Model of a Trading Economy27lInternational Effects of GrowthlExport-biased growth in the rest of the world improves our terms of trade, while import-bia

29、sed growth abroad worsens our terms of trade.（世界其他國家的出口偏（世界其他國家的出口偏向型增長會改善本國的貿(mào)易條件，而其他國家的進口偏向型增長會改善本國的貿(mào)易條件，而其他國家的進口偏向型增長會惡化本國的貿(mào)易條件）向型增長會惡化本國的貿(mào)易條件）lExport-biased growth in our country worsens our terms of trade, reducing the direct benefits of growth, while import-biased growth leads to an improvement

30、 of our terms of trade.（本國的出口偏向型增長會惡化（本國的出口偏向型增長會惡化本國的貿(mào)易條件，減少經(jīng)濟增長帶來的直接收益；而本本國的貿(mào)易條件，減少經(jīng)濟增長帶來的直接收益；而本國的進口偏向型增長會改善本國的貿(mào)易條件。國的進口偏向型增長會改善本國的貿(mào)易條件。 ）A Standard Model of a Trading Economy28lImmiserizing growth（悲慘的增長）（悲慘的增長）lA situation where export-biased growth by poor nations can worsen their terms of trad

31、e so much that they would be worse off than if they had not grown at all（是指這樣一（是指這樣一種情況，窮國的出口偏向型增長使該國的貿(mào)易條件極度惡種情況，窮國的出口偏向型增長使該國的貿(mào)易條件極度惡化，以致于該國的福利水平還不及增長前）化，以致于該國的福利水平還不及增長前）lIt can occur under extreme conditions: Strongly export-biased growth must be combined with very steep RS and RD curves.lIt is r

32、egarded by most economists as more a theoretical point than a real-world issue.（大多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為這只是（大多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為這只是一種理論上的可能性而不是現(xiàn)實的議題）一種理論上的可能性而不是現(xiàn)實的議題）A Standard Model of a Trading Economy29Table 5-1: Average Annual Percent Changes in Terms of TradeA Standard Model of a Trading Economy30International Transfers

33、of Income: Shifting the RD CurvelInternational transfers of income, such as war reparations and foreign aid, may affect a countrys terms of trade by shifting the world relative demand curve.lRelative world demand for goods may shift because of:lChanges in tastes（消費者偏好的改變）（消費者偏好的改變）lChanges in techno

34、logy（技術(shù)的改變）（技術(shù)的改變）lInternational transfers of income（國際收入轉(zhuǎn)移）（國際收入轉(zhuǎn)移）31lThe Transfer ProblemlHow international transfers affect the terms of tradelEffects of a Transfer on the Terms of TradelWhen both countries allocate their change in spending in the same proportions (Ohlins point)（如果兩個國家增加或減少的支出在兩種

35、產(chǎn)品間的（如果兩個國家增加或減少的支出在兩種產(chǎn)品間的分配比例相同）分配比例相同）lThe RD curve will not shift, and there will be no terms of trade effect.International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD Curve32International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD CurvelWhen the two countries do not allocate their change in spending in the s

36、ame proportions (Keyness point):（如果兩個國家增加或減少的支（如果兩個國家增加或減少的支出在兩種產(chǎn)品間的分配比例不同）出在兩種產(chǎn)品間的分配比例不同）lThe RD curve will shift and there will be a terms of trade effect.The direction of the effect on terms of trade will depend on the difference in Home and Foreign spending patterns.（對貿(mào)易條件的影響的方向，取決于本對貿(mào)易條件的影響的方向，

37、取決于本國和外國支出方式的差異國和外國支出方式的差異 ）33Figure 5-8: Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade（從本國到外國的收入轉(zhuǎn)移）（從本國到外國的收入轉(zhuǎn)移）Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRSRD2RD1(PC/PF)221(PC/PF)1International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD Curve34lPresumptions about the Terms of

38、 Trade Effects of TransferslA transfer will worsen the donors terms of trade if the donor has a higher marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient. （如果收入轉(zhuǎn)出者對其出口產(chǎn)品的邊際支出傾（如果收入轉(zhuǎn)出者對其出口產(chǎn)品的邊際支出傾向大于收入轉(zhuǎn)入國，那么收入轉(zhuǎn)移會惡化轉(zhuǎn)出國向大于收入轉(zhuǎn)入國，那么收入轉(zhuǎn)移會惡化轉(zhuǎn)出國的貿(mào)易條件）的貿(mào)易條件）International Transfers of Income:

39、Shifting the RD Curve35International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD CurvelIn practice, most countries spend a much higher share of their income on domestically produced goods than foreigners do（在現(xiàn)實中，（在現(xiàn)實中，與別國相比大多數(shù)國家都更偏好自己生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品）與別國相比大多數(shù)國家都更偏好自己生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品）.lThis is not necessarily due to differences

40、in taste but rather to barriers to trade, natural and artificial. （這不一定是由偏好的差異引起的，而有可能（這不一定是由偏好的差異引起的，而有可能是由貿(mào)易、自然以及人為的壁壘引起的）是由貿(mào)易、自然以及人為的壁壘引起的）36lImport tariffs and export subsidies affect both relative supply and relative demand.lRelative Demand and Supply Effects of a TarifflTariffs drive a wedge b

41、etween the prices at which goods are traded internationally (external prices) and the prices at which they are traded within a country (internal prices).關(guān)稅將商品的世界市場價格（外部價關(guān)稅將商品的世界市場價格（外部價格）和國內(nèi)市場價格（內(nèi)部價格）分隔開來。格）和國內(nèi)市場價格（內(nèi)部價格）分隔開來。lThe terms of trade correspond to external, not internal, prices（貿(mào)易條件隨著外部而不

42、是內(nèi)部價格的變動而變（貿(mào)易條件隨著外部而不是內(nèi)部價格的變動而變動）動）.Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD37Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RDFigure 5-9: Effects of a Tariff on the Terms of TradeRelative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1RD2RS2

43、 (PC/PF)11(PC/PF)2238lEffects of an Export SubsidylTariffs and export subsidies are often treated as similar policies but they have opposite effects on the terms of trade.lExample: Suppose that Home offers 20% subsidy on the value of cloth exported:This will raise Homes internal price of cloth relat

44、ive to food by 20%.This will lead Home producers to produce more cloth and less food.lA Home export subsidy worsens Homes terms of trade and improves Foreigns.Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD39Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RDFigure 5-10: Ef

45、fects of a Subsidy on the Terms of TradeRelative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1RD2RS2(PC/PF)11(PC/PF)2240lImplications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses?lThe International Distribution of IncomelIf Home (a large country) imposes a tariff, its

46、welfare increases as long as the tariff is not too large, while Foreigns welfare decreases.（如果本國（大國）施加關(guān)稅，（如果本國（大國）施加關(guān)稅，只要稅率不是太高，那么本國的福利水平就會提高，而別國只要稅率不是太高，那么本國的福利水平就會提高，而別國的福利水平就會下降）的福利水平就會下降）lIf Home offers an export subsidy, its welfare deteriorates, while Foreigns welfare increases.（如果本國提供出口補貼，（如果

47、本國提供出口補貼，那么該國的福利水平會惡化，而別國的福利水平會改善）那么該國的福利水平會惡化，而別國的福利水平會改善）Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD41Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RDlThe Distribution of Income Within CountrieslA tariff (subsidy) has the direct effect of raising the internal relat

48、ive price of the imported (exported) good.（關(guān)稅（出口補貼）會直接提高進口（出口）商品的國（關(guān)稅（出口補貼）會直接提高進口（出口）商品的國內(nèi)相對價格）內(nèi)相對價格）lTariffs and export subsidies might have perverse effects on internal prices (Metzler paradox). （關(guān)稅和出口補貼對一國國內(nèi)價格可能產(chǎn)生相反的（關(guān)稅和出口補貼對一國國內(nèi)價格可能產(chǎn)生相反的影響影響 (梅茨勒悖論梅茨勒悖論). ）42Figure 5A-1: Homes Desired Trade at

49、a Given Relative Price（給定相對價格下本國意愿的貿(mào)易量）TDesiredimportsof foodDesiredexportsof clothHomesimports, DF - QFHomesexports, QC - DCOPC/PFAppendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves43Figure 5A-2: Homes Offer Curve（本國的提供曲線）（本國的提供曲線）CT2T1Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer CurvesHomesimpo