宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)與財(cái)務(wù)知識(shí)分析規(guī)劃(英文版)

Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-1,CHAPTER11,ExtendingtheSticky-PriceModel:IS-LM,InternationalSide,andAS-AD,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-2,Questions,Whatismoney-marketequilibrium?WhatistheLMcurve?WhatdeterminestheequilibriumlevelofrealGDPwhenthecentralbankpolicyistokeepthemoneysupplyconstant?WhatistheIS-LMframework?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-3,Questions,WhatisanISshock?WhatisanLMshock?WhatistherelationshipbetweenshiftsintheequilibriumontheIS-LMdiagramandchangesintherealexchangerate?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-4,Questions,WhatistherelationshipbetweenshiftsintheequilibriumontheIS-LMdiagramandchangesinthebalanceoftrade?Whatistheaggregatesupplycurve?Whatistheaggregatedemandcurve?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-5,TheDemandforMoney,Threefactsaboutbusinessandhouseholddemandformoneymoneydemandisproportionaltototalnominalincome(PY)moneydemandhasatimetrend,theresultofslowchangesinthebankingsectorstructureandtechnologymoneydemandisinverselyrelatedtothenominalinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-6,TheDemandforMoney,Moneydemandisinverselyrelatedtothenominalinterestrate(i=r+)becausethenominalinterestrateistheopportunitycostofholdingmoneymoneybalanceslosepurchasingpowerattherateofinflation()ifmoneybalanceswereplacedinsomeotherasset,theywouldearntheprevailingmarketrealinterestrate(r),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-7,TheDemandforMoney,Tokeepourmodelsimple,wewillignorethetimetrendinvelocityThedemandformoneycanbeexpressedas,MoneydemandisproportionaltorealGDPandadecreasingfunctionofthenominalinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-8,MoneyMarketEquilibrium,Inasticky-pricemodel,thepricelevelispredetermineditcannotmoveinstantlytomakemoneysupplyequaltomoneydemandThenominalinterestratemustadjusttokeepthemoneymarketinequilibrium,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-9,Figure11.1-MoneyDemandandMoneySupply,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-10,MoneyMarketEquilibrium,Ifmoneysupplymoneydemandbusinessesandhouseholdsareholdinglargermoneybalancesthantheywantsotheydepositthematthebankbankswanttoincreaseloansandthusrespondbyloweringinterestratesasthenominalinterestratefalls,thequantityofmoneydemandedrisesthisprocesscontinuesuntilthequantityofmoneydemandedisequaltothemoneysupply,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-12,TheLMCurve,BecausethedemandformoneydependsonthelevelofrealGDP,ifthemoneystockisconstant,theequilibriumnominalinterestratewillvarywheneverrealGDPvaries,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-13,Figure11.2-MoneyDemandVariesasTotalIncomeYVaries,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-14,TheLMCurve,TheLMcurveshowstherelationshipbetweenthelevelofrealGDPandtheequilibriumnominalinterestratethatclearsthemoneymarketTheLMcurveslopesupwardatahigherlevelofrealGDP,moneydemandishigherandthereforetheequilibriumnominalinterestrateishigher,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-15,Figure11.3-FromMoneyDemandtotheLMCurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-16,TheLMCurve,TheequationfortheLMcurveis,IncreasesinthemoneysupplyshifttheLMcurvetotherightAdeclineinthepricelevelshiftstheLMcurvetotheright,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-17,TheIS-LMFramework,Aslongasweknowtheexpectedinflationrate,wecanplottheISandLMcurvesonthesameaxisTheequilibriumlevelsofrealGDPandtheinterestrateoccuratthepointwheretheISandLMcurvesintersecttheeconomyisinequilibriuminboththegoodsmarketandthemoneymarket,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-18,Figure11.4-TheIS-LMDiagram,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-19,IS-LMEquilibrium,Example(assumethatisconstantat3%)IScurve:Y=$10,000-$20,000rLMcurve:Y=$1,000+$100,000(r+),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-20,Figure11.5-IS-LMEquilibriumExample,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-21,ISShocks,AnychangeineconomicpolicyortheeconomicenvironmentthatincreasesautonomousspendingshiftstheIScurvetotherightthenewequilibriumwillhaveahigherlevelofrealGDPandahigherrealinterestratehowthetotaleffectisdividedbetweenincreasedinterestratesandincreasedrealGDPdependsontheslopeoftheLMcurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-22,Figure11.6-EffectofaPositiveISShock,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-23,AnISShock,ExampleinitialIScurve:Y=$10,000-$20,000rLMcurve:Y=$1000+$100,000(r+3)initialequilibrium:r=5%;Y=$9,000autonomousspendingincreasesnewIScurve:Y=$10,300-$20,000r,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-24,Figure11.7-CalculatingtheEffectofanISShift,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-25,LMShocks,AnincreaseinthemoneystockwillshifttheLMcurvetotherightthenewequilibriumpositionwillhaveahigherlevelofequilibriumrealGDPandalowerinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-26,Figure11.8-EffectofanExpansionaryLMShock,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-27,AnLMShock,ExampleIScurve:Y=$10,000-$20,000rinitialLMcurve:Y=$1000+$100,000(r+3)initialequilibrium:r=5%;Y=$9,000themoneysupplyincreasesnewLMcurve:Y=$2200+$100,000(r+3),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-28,Figure11.9-AnExpansionaryShiftintheLMCurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-29,InterestRateTargets,ThecaseinwhichthecentralbankistargetingtheinterestratecanbeviewedintheIS-LMframeworkAninterestratetargetcanbeseenasaflat,horizontalLMcurveatthetargetleveloftheinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-30,Figure11.10-IS-LMFrameworkwithanInterestRateTarget,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-31,ChangesthatAffecttheLMCurve,Anychangeinthenominalmoneystock,inthepricelevel,orinthetrendvelocityofmoneywillshifttheLMcurveAnychangeintheinterestsensitivityofmoneydemandwillchangetheslopeoftheLMcurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-32,ChangesthatAffecttheLMCurve,TheIS-LMdiagramisdrawnwiththelong-term,risky,realinterestrateontheverticalaxisTheLMcurveisarelationshipbetweentheshort-runnominalinterestrateandthelevelofrealGDPatafixedlevelofthemoneysupply,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-33,ChangesthatAffecttheLMCurve,Aslongasthespreadbetweentheshort-term,safe,nominalinterestrateandthelong-term,risky,realinterestrateisconstant,therearenocomplicationsindrawingtheLMcurveontothesamediagramastheIScurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-34,ChangesthatAffecttheLMCurve,Iftheexpectedrateofinflation,theriskpremium,orthetermpremiumbetweenshort-andlong-terminterestrateschanges,theLMcurvewillshiftchangesinfinancialmarketexpectationsoffutureFederalReservepolicy,futureinterestrates,orchangesintherisktoleranceofbondtraderswillshifttheLMcurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-35,Figure11.11-AnIncreaseinExpectedInflationMovestheLMCurveDownward,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-36,ChangesthatAffecttheISCurve,ShiftsintheIScurvearemorefrequentthanshiftsintheLMcurveAnychangeintheinterestsensitivityofinvestment,thesensitivityofexportstotheexchangerate,orthesensitivityoftheexchangeratetothedomesticinterestratewillchangetheslopeoftheIScurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-37,ChangesthatAffecttheISCurve,AnythingthataffectsMPEwillchangetheslopeandthepositionoftheIScurvethisincludeschangesintheMPC,taxrates,andthepropensitytoimportAnychangeinautonomousspendingwillshifttheIScurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-38,TheIS-LMFrameworkandtheExchangeRate,Inthesticky-pricemodel,therealexchangerate()isequalto,Aslongasthedomesticrealinterestratedoesnotchange,domesticconditionswillhavenoimpactontheexchangerate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-39,TheIS-LMFrameworkandtheExchangeRate,ChangesintheISandLMcurvesthatchangethedomesticrealinterestratewillaltertherealexchangeratebyanamountequalto(rr)arightwardshiftintheIScurveoraleftwardshiftintheLMcurvewilllowertherealexchangeratealeftwardshiftintheIScurveorarightwardshiftintheLMcurvewillraisetherealexchangerate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-40,Figure11.12-IS-LMandtheExchangeRate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-41,TheIS-LMFrameworkandtheBalanceofTrade,ChangesinthedomesticinterestrateaffecttherealexchangeratewhichaffectsgrossexportsChangesintotalincomeaffectimportsTheeffectonnetexportsisthedifferencebetweenthesetwoeffects,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-42,Figure11.13-EffectofaChangeinDomesticConditionsontheExchangeRateandtheBalanceofTrade,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-43,AnLMShockandtheBalanceofTrade,ExampleinitialIScurve:Y=$10,000-$20,000rinitialLMcurve:Y=$1000+$100,000(r+3)initialequilibrium:r=5%;Y=$9,000themoneysupplyincreasesnewLMcurve:Y=$2200+$100,000(r+3)newequilibrium:r=4%;Y=$9,200,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-44,Figure11.14-EffectsofExpansionaryMonetaryPolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-45,AnLMShockandtheBalanceofTrade,Example(continued)thedecreaseintherealinterestrateincreasestheexchangerateby(-rr)=-10(-.01)=0.10andtheriseintherealexchangerateincreasesgrossexportsby(X)=$2000.1=$20theincreaseinrealnationalincomeincreasesimportsby(IMyY)=$0.15$200=$30netexportsfallsby$10,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-46,InternationalShocks,ThreetypesofinternationalshockswillaffecttheIS-LMequilibriumashiftinforeigndemandforexportsashiftintheforeignrealinterestrateachangeinforeignexchangespeculatorsviewaboutthefundamentalvalueoftheexchangerate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-47,InternationalShocks,Anincreaseinexportdemandisanincreaseinautonomousspending(A0)theIScurveshiftsrightwardbyanamountequaltoA0/(1-MPS)equilibriumrealGDPrisesandtherealinterestraterisesaswell(iftheLMcurveisupwardsloping),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-48,Figure11.15-EffectofanIncreaseinForeignDemandforExports,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-49,InternationalShocks,AnincreaseintheforeigninterestrateraisesthevalueoftheexchangerateandboostsexportstheIScurveshiftstotherightequilibriumrealGDPrisesandtherealinterestratealsoincreases(iftheLMcurveisupwardsloping),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-50,InternationalShocks,Ifforeignexchangespeculatorsloseconfidenceintheirhomecurrency,theexchangeratewillrisetheIScurvewillshifttotherightequilibriumrealGDPwillriseandtherealinterestratewillincrease(assumingthattheLMcurveisupwardsloping),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-51,InternationalShocks,ExampleLMcurve:Y=$1000+$100,000(r+3)initialIScurve:Y=$10,000-$20,000rinitialequilibrium:r=5%;Y=$9,000foreignexchangespeculatorsloseconfidenceinthevalueofhomecurrencynewIScurve:Y=$10,120-$20,000rnewequilibrium:r=5.1%;Y=$9,100,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-52,AggregateDemand,Ifthenominalmoneysupplyisfixed,anincreaseinthepricelevelshiftstheLMcurvetothelefttheequilibriumrealinterestraterisestheequilibriumlevelofrealGDPfallsIfweplotthelevelofequilibriumrealGDPforeachpossiblepricelevel,wewillgettheaggregatedemandcurveitwillbedownwardsloping,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-53,Figure11.16-AnIncreaseinthePriceLevelShiftstheLMCurveLeft(IftheNominalMoneySupplyisFixed),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-54,Figure11.17-FromtheIS-LMDiagramtotheAggregateDemandCurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-55,MonetaryPolicyandAggregateDemand,Moderncentralbanksalterthemoneysupplyinresponsetochangesintheeconomywheninflationrises,thecentralbanktendstoincreasetherealinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-56,MonetaryPolicyandAggregateDemand,TheTaylorruleisasimplemodelofhowcentralbanksactthecentralbankhasatargetvalueofinflation()andanestimateofwhatthenormalrealinterestrateshouldbe(r*)ifinflationishigherthan,thecentralbankraisestherealinterestrateifinflationislowerthan,thecentralbanklowerstherealinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-57,MonetaryPolicyandAggregateDemand,TheTaylorrulecanbeexpressedinequationform:,where”determineshowaggressivelythecentralbankreactstoinflation,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-58,MonetaryPolicyandAggregateDemand,TheTaylorrulecanbesubstitutedintotheequationfortheIScurve,Simplifying,weget,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-59,MonetaryPolicyandAggregateDemand,ThemonetarypolicyfunctionisarelationshipbetweentheinflationrateandrealGDPitassumesthattheFederalReserveisengagedintheeconomytryingtokeepinflationclosetoitstarget,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-60,Figure11.18-TheMonetaryPolicyReactionFunction,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-61,AggregateSupply,WhenrealGDPisgreaterthanpotentialoutput,inflationislikelytobehigherthanpreviouslyanticipatedinflationwilllikeaccelerateWhenrealGDPislowerthanpotentialoutput,inflationislikelytobelowerthanpreviouslyanticipatedtheinflationratewilllikelyfall(mayevenendupwithdeflation),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-62,AggregateSupply,TherelationshipbetweenrealGDP(relativetopotentialoutput)andtherateofinflation(relativetoitspreviously-expectedvalue)istheshort-runaggregatesupplycurve,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-63,AggregateSupply,Theshort-runaggregatesupplycurvecanbeexpressedinequationform,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-64,Figure11.19-OutputRelativetoPotentialandtheInflationRate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-65,AggregateSupplyandAggregateDemand,WheretheaggregatesupplyandaggregatedemandcurvescrossisthecurrentlevelofrealGDPandthecurrentinflationrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-66,Figure11.20-AggregateSupplyandAggregateDemand,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-67,Short-RunAggregateSupply,HighlevelsofrealGDPareassociatedwithhighinflationandahighpricelevelformanyreasonswhendemandforproductsisstrongerthananticipated,firmsraisetheirpriceswhenaggregatedemandishigherthanpotentialoutput,someindustriesmayreachthelimitsofcapacity,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-68,ChapterSummary,Themoneymarketisinequilibriumwhentheleveloftotalincomesandoftheshort-termnominalinterestrateisjustrighttomakehouseholdsandbusinesseswanttoholdalltherealmoneybalancesthatexistintheeconomy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-69,ChapterSummary,Whenthecentralbankspolicykeepsthemoneysupplyfixed-orwhenthereisnocentralbank-theLMcurveconsistsofthosecombinationsofinterestratesandrealGDPlevelsatwhichmoneydemandequalsmoneysupply,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-70,ChapterSummary,Whenthecentralbankspolicykeepsthemoneysupplyfixed-orwhenthereisnocentralbank-thenthepointatwhichtheISandLMcurvescrossdeterminestheequilibriumlevelofrealGDPandtheinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-71,ChapterSummary,TheIS-LMframeworkconsistsoftwoequilibriumconditionstheIScurveshowsthosecombinationsofinterestratesandrealGDPlevelsatwhichaggregatedemandisequaltototalproductiontheLMcurveshowsthosecombinationsofinterestratesandrealGDPlevelsatwhichmoneydemandisequaltomoneysupply,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,11-72,ChapterSummary,AnISshockisanyshocktotheleveloftotalspendingasafunctionoft