《我國(guó)現(xiàn)有自貿(mào)區(qū)貿(mào)易伙伴與我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易額的變化計(jì)算分析》3300字

我國(guó)現(xiàn)有自貿(mào)區(qū)貿(mào)易伙伴與我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易額的變化計(jì)算分析由于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化內(nèi)部關(guān)稅水平較低甚至沒有關(guān)稅，必然促進(jìn)了貿(mào)易來往，同時(shí)在貿(mào)易自由化程度的增高下，便利化程度也有所加深。以下從我國(guó)與各自貿(mào)區(qū)伙伴國(guó)的貿(mào)易總額、貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)率以及凈出口率三個(gè)方面來分析我國(guó)由自由貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的具體貿(mào)易影響。1.1貿(mào)易總額表12002-2020年我國(guó)與已簽自貿(mào)區(qū)伙伴進(jìn)出口總額（單位：萬美元）年份東盟中國(guó)香港中國(guó)澳門智利巴基斯坦新西蘭20025,478,1256,918,939101,839256,535179,961139,93120037,825,4598,739,303146,563353,160242,993182,609200410,586,68011,266,529183,348535,516306,054249,058200513,036,13913,669,803186,961714,102426,083269,944200616,083,77316,608,883244,243884,490524,658293,421200720,253,26219,724,045292,1371,469,616689,327369,792200823,131,97020,364,488290,7961,735,962705,787440,188200921,300,58317,493,107209,6301,783,880678,834456,352201029,286,05323,056,247226,4352,597,771866,862652,741201136,308,87128,347,550251,7543,138,5291,055,833871,801201240,014,62034,131,100298,7393,322,6121,241,365967,483201344,359,81340,070,147355,7913,381,3151,421,6441,238,490201448,028,61437,569,852380,5273,400,3381,599,8351,424,347201547,176,57234,320,860477,5943,172,9291,891,6651,150,284201645,237,55530,395,369328,1513,141,1711,914,7061,190,891201751,545,31628,652,856327,2953,558,5382,008,4011,449,120201858,760,41431,052,397315,3274,260,4341,910,5401,685,803201964,169,30728,821,965311,1954,094,1041,797,3051,829,429202068,531,23427,955,819229,1164,526,8541,748,2541,812,915表1（續(xù)）年份新加坡秘魯哥斯達(dá)黎加中國(guó)臺(tái)灣冰島瑞士20021,403,07897,82526,6144,464,7113,293267,46120031,934,862111,37565,9425,836,4476,830352,22420042,668,207194,13079,5717,930,3747,331511,89320053,314,686288,687115,0859,122,98912,143582,75120064,085,791391,639215,60210,783,17211,765676,37220074,714,398601,639287,34212,448,68812,796944,44320085,247,707726,648288,96812,921,49912,8241,126,23920094,785,587655,025“318,410”10,622,1518,747954,390”20105,707,598993,457379,48814,541,31411，2412，007，03920116,371,0061,250,999472,85516,001,76115，2183，090，85520126,927,2651,379,883617,20016,898,10618,4352,630,89320137,589,6381,459,690568,50319,703,89622,2445,958,76220147,973,9911,424,172529,58119,828,37520,3524,352,90020157,952,3201,430,489215,66418,809,66819,1094,426,34920167,052,5921,548,237219,27117,908,84322,9124,300,29720177,926,8922,032,624228,67019,993,91222,1923,605,29220188,276,4402,297,899243,99522,624,29242,1334,253,16120199,003,6312,370,868224,38922,812,20725,7563,181,64520208,924,4192,360,122220,49226,061,53620,5522,242,270表1（續(xù)）年份韓國(guó)澳大利亞馬爾代夫格魯吉亞毛里求斯柬埔寨20024,410,2571,043,5612981,1519,46727,61120036,322,2821,356,3653352,8121,105032,06520049,004,5662,039,0748095,70615,78448,171200511,192,8182,725,5131,6964,34218,56256,334200613,424,6353,294,8181,6008,53120,50873,286200715,985,0814,883,0002,50719,23328,94293,399200818,606,9915,968,2403,29729,64132,579113,437200915,621,4796,012,9974,07920,98029,79994,415201020,711,5128,834,2326,35232,01840,339144,097201124,562,63511,658,3099,72679,91750,661249,911201225,641,52912,234,6257,66777,37463,088292,343201327,423,77113,650,8229,78391,65566,157377,314201429,044,22213,677,68410,43796,17975,938375,765201527,579,24711,381,66117,28381,24685,644442,999201625,270,34910,822,24132,11879,90077,847476,067201728,025,69313,644,73529,62598,02178,45579,078201831,339,95515,314,07339,721114,94384,162738,418201928,453,34416,951,92238,170148,27984,527942,585202028,558,07417,116,22628,147137,65672,645955,198資料來源：根據(jù)歷年《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》的數(shù)據(jù)整理而得注：標(biāo)紅數(shù)據(jù)為自貿(mào)協(xié)定還未生效的年份數(shù)據(jù)，用于區(qū)別簽訂前后數(shù)據(jù)變化從簽訂貿(mào)易協(xié)議前后我國(guó)與各伙伴國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額數(shù)據(jù)來看，在簽訂貿(mào)易協(xié)議附近年份及以后進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額出現(xiàn)上漲趨勢(shì)，體現(xiàn)出來在簽訂自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定時(shí)期附近，在協(xié)議生效前的談判時(shí)期就尤為明顯，大部分存在一段時(shí)間的爆發(fā)性增長(zhǎng)。從智利、新西蘭、秘魯及巴基斯坦的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額的數(shù)據(jù)可以明顯看出，從簽署協(xié)定至2020年，貿(mào)易總額增長(zhǎng)倍數(shù)分別為6.3倍、4.1倍、3.6倍及3.3倍，貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)速度相對(duì)明顯。自2003年內(nèi)地與香港和澳門、2010年與臺(tái)灣簽署自貿(mào)協(xié)定以后，雙邊貿(mào)易總額分別從8,739,303萬美元、146,563萬美元和14,541,314萬美元增長(zhǎng)到27,955,819萬美元、229,116萬美元和26,061,536萬美元，增長(zhǎng)了3.19倍、1.56倍和1.79倍，在一國(guó)兩制特殊國(guó)情下，自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)自治區(qū)域的貿(mào)易也有著推進(jìn)作用。此外由簽訂時(shí)間順序來看，在簽署自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定并建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)以后，我國(guó)與各貿(mào)易伙伴增長(zhǎng)率隨時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短呈現(xiàn)簽署協(xié)定越早成效越大的趨勢(shì)。例如最早簽訂的中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定從協(xié)議生效至2020年增長(zhǎng)倍數(shù)為6.47倍，而2015年生效的中國(guó)-澳大利亞自貿(mào)協(xié)定至2020年的增長(zhǎng)倍數(shù)僅為1.50倍。1.2貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)率表52003-2020年國(guó)與已簽自貿(mào)區(qū)伙伴貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)率（單位：%）年份東盟中國(guó)香港中國(guó)澳門智利巴基斯坦新西蘭新加坡秘魯哥斯達(dá)黎加200342.8526.3143.92200435.2928.9225.10200523.1421.331.9733.35200623.3821.5030.6423.8623.14200725.9218.7619.6166.1531.39200814.213.25-0.4618.122.3919.0411.31--2009-7.92-14.10-27.912.76-3.823.67-8.81-9.86-201037.4931.808.0245.6227.7043.0319.2751.6719.18201123.9822.9511.1820.8221.8033.5611.6225.9224.60201210.2120.4018.665.8717.5710.988.7310.3030.53201310.8617.4019.101.7714.5228.019.565.78-7.8920148.27-6.246.950.5612.5315.015.06-2.43-6.852015-1.77-8.6525.51-6.6918.24-19.24-0.270.44-59.282016-4.11-11.44-31.29-1.001.223.53-11.318.231.67201713.94-5.73-0.2613.294.8921.6812.4031.294.29201814.008.37-3.6619.72-4.8716.334.4113.056.7020199.20-7.18-1.31-3.90-5.938.528.793.18-8.0420206.80-3.01-26.3610.57-2.730.90-0.88-0.45-1.74表5（續(xù)）年份中國(guó)臺(tái)灣冰島瑞士韓國(guó)澳大利亞馬爾代夫格魯吉亞毛里求斯柬埔寨2003200420052006200720082009201036.90201110.0420125.60201316.6020.6620140.63-8.51-26.952015-5.14-6.111.69-5.04-16.792016-4.7919.90-2.85-8.37-4.92201711.64-3.14-16.16109.26.08-7.7622.68--201813.1689.8617.9711.8312.2334.0817.26--20190.83-38.87-25.19-9.2110.70-3.9029.00--202014.24-20.21-29.520.370.97-26.26-7.16-14.06-資料來源：根據(jù)歷年《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》的數(shù)據(jù)整理而得注：“-”為未簽署自貿(mào)協(xié)定的年份，數(shù)據(jù)僅從簽署自貿(mào)協(xié)定的年份開始統(tǒng)計(jì)由表5可以看出，簽署自貿(mào)協(xié)議后我國(guó)與貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)的貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)率總體呈正數(shù)，并且在部分年份增速迅猛，最高達(dá)到了89.86%，平均增速為6.76%。說明自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立對(duì)我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易起到了一定程度的積極作用，這正說明了自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立為我國(guó)與其簽署伙伴國(guó)的貿(mào)易在一定程度上起到了積極正向作用。并且在簽署早期會(huì)有一定時(shí)間的大幅提升，然后逐漸趨于平穩(wěn)。按貿(mào)易區(qū)伙伴經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度來看，中國(guó)與發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的自貿(mào)協(xié)議效果與發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的效果基本相當(dāng)，與發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體自貿(mào)協(xié)定生效后的平均增速為6.78%，與發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的平均增速為6.75%，這表明經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度對(duì)雙方貿(mào)易的影響決定性不是絕對(duì)的，還需考慮多方因素。對(duì)于個(gè)別年份與某些貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)的雙邊貿(mào)易總額增長(zhǎng)率呈負(fù)數(shù)的情況，主要原因是受大環(huán)境的影響，例如在2008次貸危機(jī)影響下，與各已生效自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的貿(mào)增長(zhǎng)率幾乎均降為負(fù)數(shù)，僅智利與新西蘭還能保持著2.76%和3.67%的緩慢增速。但在危機(jī)過后出現(xiàn)了顯著的反彈趨勢(shì)，平均貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到了32.07%超高數(shù)值。同樣的情況出現(xiàn)在了2019年，在新冠疫情的影響下，貿(mào)易受到了長(zhǎng)達(dá)幾年的打擊，并且至2022年初還未結(jié)束。為了避免大環(huán)境影響造成的貿(mào)易動(dòng)蕩，繼續(xù)深化自貿(mào)區(qū)的升級(jí)建設(shè)，追求達(dá)到更高層次的貿(mào)易合作變成了如今外貿(mào)工作重點(diǎn)之一。1.3貿(mào)易差額表62002-2020年國(guó)與已簽自貿(mào)區(qū)伙伴貿(mào)易差額（單位：萬美元）年份東盟中國(guó)香港中國(guó)澳門智利巴基斯坦新西蘭2002-761,2272003-1,640,0816,515,571109,4552004-2,006,8018,907,185140,172-197,829--2005-1,962,69711,224,847134,053-284,206--2006-1,821,54114,452,931192,835-262,684323,216-2007-1,423,90317,163,205236,061-586,504468,483-2008-268,61517,781,318229,627504,427504,42761,7182009-49,21115,752,607160,389426,832426,832-39,2862010-1,654,09120,604,163201,725-992,845520,658-99,8422011-2,294,75125,249,065219,300-975,183632,109-124,4632012836,29630,555,025242,903-802,722613,714-194,57520134,448,15336,828,831278,367-760,222782,276-412,15320146,380,52035,045,577338,045-796,8381,049,061-476,75920158,281,60531,771,698440,522-514,8641,396,713-166,47220165,976,12927,055,235300,084-579,8221,532,187-237,23520174,355,17927,189,419306,495-676,5681,641,757-429,10020185,039,04729,351,923302,510-1,085,7081,476,123-530,86320197,732,97827,008,533297,779-1,151,7361,436,079-682,16820208,204,72326,559,263216,539-1,459,54813,45,280-602,299表6（續(xù)）年份新加坡秘魯哥斯達(dá)黎加中國(guó)臺(tái)灣冰島瑞士20022003200420052006200720081,213,45520091,224,801-235,2352010761,848-283,523-241,881-8,606,416--2011743,021-320,343-295,951-8,979,972--20121,221,109-313,387-436,848-9,542,621--20131,576,735-221,922-383,107-11,577,0867,084-20141,808,244-204,002-307,673-10,573,0518,400-3,735,20420152,436,168-159,49550,472-9,831,1755,895-3,792,91720161,849,742-349,92579,789-9,860,6034,034-3,666,43720171,076,968-640,85070,346-11,198,206174-2,973,19220181,530,886-684,96188,551-12,895,6818,982-3,450,00720191,956,067-668,25279,877-11,790,345-2,782-2,272,71520202,600,805-586,97386,707-14,038,050-377-1,233,780表6（續(xù)）年份韓國(guó)澳大利亞馬爾代夫格魯吉亞毛里求斯柬埔寨20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015-7,321,970-3,320,3602016-6,524,558-3,356,7612017-7,484,937-5,357,08929,50184,503--2018-9,588,726-5,848,06139,514104,165