2025菲律賓海上風(fēng)電整合競爭性可再生能源區(qū)

IntegratingOffshoreWindIntoCompetitiveRenewableEnergyZones(CREZ)forthePhilippinesPrateekJoshi,Sophie-MinThomson,andAmbarishNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory

PrateekJoshiSophie?MinThomsonAmbarish20251 IntegratingOffshoreWindIntoCompetitiveRenewableEnergyZones(CREZ)forthePhilippines

源區(qū)（CREZ）ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat/publicationsTheauthorsthanktheU.S.DepartmentofStateandZacharyHauserattheU.S.DepartmentofEnergyforsupportingthiswork,alongwithstaffatthePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergyfortheirengagementandfeedbackthroughout.Furthermore,theauthorsthankLyanVillacortaandLilyGutierrezattheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentPhilippinesmissionforassistancewithprojectscopingandstakeholdercoordination,aswellasRMIwiththeirtechnicalfeedbackonoffshorewindinthePhilippines.Theauthorsalsowishtothankseveralcolleaguesfortheirpeerreviews,detailedcomments,insights,andcontributionstothisreport:BarbaraO’Neill,DerinaMan,andAdamWarren(NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,NREL),alongwithIsabelMcCanandLizBreazeale(NREL)foreditorialassistance.Anyerrorsandomissionsarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthors.

RMI同行評審、詳細評論、見解和對本報告的貢獻：BarbaraO’NeillDerinaManAdamWarren（國家可再生能源實驗室，NREL），IsabelMcCanLizBreazeale（NREL）在編輯方面的協(xié)助。任何錯誤和遺漏均由作者負責。Listof competitiverenewableenergy levelizedcostof levelizedcostof NationalGridCorporationofthe NationalRenewableEnergy offshore PhilippinesDepartmentof RenewableEnergyPotential RenewableEnergy U.S. variablerenewable

CREZLCOEMWMWhNGCP菲律賓國家NRELOSW海上風(fēng)電ExecutiveThePhilippinesisaimingtobuildadomesticoffshorewindindustryandhasincorporatedoffshorewindintoseveralpolicyanddeploymentinitiatives.Inparallel,thePhilippineshasalsobeenaleaderinincorporatingrenewableenergyzones(REZs)intopowersectordevelopmentandtransmissionplans.Theobjectiveofthisstudy,conductedbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)inpartnershipwiththePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergy,istoincorporateoffshorewindresourcesintothePhilippines’alreadyestablishedcompetitiverenewableenergyzones(CREZs)tosupportnationaltransmissionplanning,therebyconnectingthesetwopreviouslydisparateworkstreamsandimplementingakeyrecommendationfromtheWorldBank’soffshorewindroadmapforthecountry(WorldBank2022).AsummaryofprioroffshorewindandCREZ-relatedeffortsinthePhilippines,culminatinginthisanalysis,isshowninFigureES-1.FigureES-1.PriorREZsandoffshorewindworkinthePhilippinesleadingtothisThisprojectfocusesonsevenoffshorewinddevelopmentzones(A,B,C,D,E,F,andG)identifiedinpriorstudies,alongwith10outofthe25onshoreCREZs(L2,L3,L6,L10,Mr1,Mr2,N1,N2,Py1,andPy2).FigureES-2showstheseoffshorewindzonesandlinkedonshoreCREZs.Dataontheoffshorewindresourceandoffshorewindzones,alongwithtechnologyperformanceandcostassumptions,wasusedinNREL’sRenewableEnergyPotential(reV)model(FigureES-3)tocalculatetechnicalpotentialdataforeachoffshorewindzone(i.e.,capacity,capacityfactors,levelizedcostofelectricity[LCOE],etc.).

菲律賓在將可再生能源區(qū)（REZs）納入電力部門發(fā)展與輸電計劃方面也處于領(lǐng)先地位。由美國能源部國家可再生能源實驗室（NREL）與菲律賓能源部合作開展的本研究的目的是將近海風(fēng)資源納入菲律賓已建立的競爭性可再生能源區(qū)（CREZs），以支持國家輸電規(guī)劃，從而連接這兩個先前獨立的業(yè)務(wù)流程，并實施世界銀行（2022年）為該國近海風(fēng)電路線圖提出的重點建議（2022年）CREZ相關(guān)ES?1圖ES?1REZs本項目重點關(guān)注先前研究中確定的七個近海風(fēng)電開發(fā)區(qū)（ABCDEFG），25CREZs10（L2L3L6L10Mr1Mr2N2Py1Py2）ES?2CREZs。NRELreV）模型（ES?3），以計算每個近海風(fēng)電區(qū)的技術(shù)潛力數(shù)據(jù)（即容量、容量LCOE）。/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat FigureES-2.OnshoreCREZs(L2–Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzonesNote:OnshoreCREZcentroidsareshownwitha50-kmradius

FigureES-2.OnshoreCREZs(L2?Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzonesNote:OnshoreCREZcentroidsareshownwitha50-kmradius/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat FigureES-3.SchematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthePhilippinesFutureoffshorewinddevelopmentandgridinterconnectioninthePhilippineswillimpactthetransmissionsystemandselectsubstations.TheWorldBankroadmap(WorldBank2022)includesaLow-GrowthandaHigh-Growthscenarioforoffshorewindinthecountry,whilethePhilippineEnergyPlan2023?2050(PDOE2023)includesaReferencescenarioandtwoCleanEnergyscenarios(TableES-1).TableES-1.AnticipatedOffshoreWindDeploymentinthePhilippinesUnderDifferentFutureOffshoreWindCapacityWorldPhilippineEnergyCleanEnergyScenarioCleanEnergyScenarioItisimportanttounderstandhowthesefuturescenariosforoffshorewinddeploymentcouldimpactinfrastructuredevelopmentinthesevenoffshorewindzonesandtransmissioninterconnectionforthe10linkedonshoreCREZsthatareanalyzedinthisstudy.Toassesstheleast-costdevelopmentofoffshorewindinthePhilippines,thesupplycurveandtotalLCOEdataforeachoffshorewindzoneisdisaggregatedbybothlinkedonshoreCREZandturbinetype(i.e.,fixed-bottomandfloatingturbines).AsummaryoftheseresultsisshowninFigureES-4.TheseestimatedLCOEvaluesdonotaccountforthecostofpotentialportorgridinfrastructureupgradesthatcouldbenecessarytosupportoffshorewinddeploymentintheoffshorewindzonesandCREZs.Thus,offshorewindzonesandCREZswithhigherLCOEscouldbemoreviablefornear-termdevelopmentdependingonthestateofthenearbyportandgridinfrastructure(i.e.,transmissionlinevoltage,substationcapacity,etc.).

FigureES-3.SchematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthePhilippines（2022）為該國的海上風(fēng)電制定了低增長和高增長兩種情景，而菲律賓能2023?2050（PDOE2023）則包括基準情景和兩個清潔能源情景（ES?1）。CREZ的輸電互聯(lián)非常重要。為了評估菲律賓海上風(fēng)電的最小成本開發(fā)，每個海上風(fēng)電LCOECREZ和渦輪類型（即固定底座和浮式渦輪）進ES?4LCOECREZ的潛在港口或電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施升級的成本。因此，LCOECREZ可能更適合近期開發(fā)，具體/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat FigureES-4.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzoneandlinkedonshoreCREZ,disaggregatedbyturbinetypeKeyTakeaway#1:Offshorewindhasamorestablegenerationprofilecomparedtoonshorewindandsolarphotovoltaics,supportingfurthergridintegrationofvariablerenewableenergyintheForeachoffshorewindzone,theaveragedailygenerationprofileforoffshorewindisrelativelyflat,despitedifferencesincapacityfactors(i.e.,theaveragecapacityfactorrangesfromahighofapproximately35%inOffshoreWindZoneAtoalowofapproximately21%inOffshoreWindZoneB)andseasonalgeneration(i.e.,lowercapacityfactorsoccurinthespringandsummermonths,whilehighercapacityfactorsoccurintheautumnandwintermonths).Offshorewind’srelativelystablegenerationprofilecontrastswiththegenerationprofilesofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)andonshorewindforthe10impactedonshoreCREZs.SolarPVpeaksinthemiddleoftheday,onshorewindpeaksintheevening,andoffshorewindiscomparativelyflatthroughouttheday.Overall,theadditionofoffshorewindreducesthevariabilityoftotalvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)generation,andthis“smoothing”oftheaggregateVREgenerationprofileisbeneficialforgridoperatorsandsupportsthegridintegrationofthesecleanresources.

1：與陸上風(fēng)電和太陽能光伏相比，近海風(fēng)電具有更穩(wěn)定的發(fā)電曲線，對于每個海上風(fēng)電區(qū)，海上風(fēng)電的平均日發(fā)電曲線相對平坦，盡管其容量因子（即，平A35%B21%）和季節(jié)性發(fā)電（即，春季和夏季月份的容量因子較低，而秋季和冬季月份的容量因子較高）存在差10（CREZ的太陽能光伏（PV）和陸地風(fēng)電的發(fā)電曲線形成對比。太陽能光伏在白天中間達到峰值，入降低了總可變可再生能源（VRE）VREKeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloatingturbines.Acrossthesevenoffshorewindzonesassessedinthisstudy,mostofthetechnicalpotentialcapacityconsistsoffloatingturbines(almost40GW,approximately93%)comparedtofixed-bottomturbines(almost3GW,approximately7%).OffshoreWindZoneDhasthehighesttechnicalpotentialcapacity(approximately27,220MW),whileOffshoreWindZoneEhasthelowesttechnicalpotentialcapacity(approximately573MW).TheaveragetotalLCOEvaluesrangefromalowofapproximately$69/MWh(fixed-bottomturbinesinOffshoreWindZoneD)toahighofapproximately$165/MWh(floatingturbinesinOffshoreWindZoneB),showninTableES-2.ThesetotalLCOEvaluesaccountforthecostoftransmissiontotheonshoreCREZ,butnotanypotentialportorgridupgrades,andarebasedon2022costestimates.TableES-2.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforEachOffshoreWindZone,DisaggregatedbyTurbineType

KeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloatingturbines.在本研究中評估的七個海上風(fēng)電區(qū)中，大部分技術(shù)潛在容量由浮式風(fēng)機組成（4093），而固定底座風(fēng)機（37）D最高的技術(shù)潛在容量（27,220），E（573）LCOE69（D的固定LCOECREZ的成本，但未考慮任何潛在的港口或電網(wǎng)升級,，2022 OffshoreWind

AverageTotalLCOE

TechnicalPotentialCapacity(MW)

元/兆瓦時

OffshoreOffshoreWindZoneDOffshoreWindZoneFOffshoreWindZoneF

區(qū)域區(qū)域

OffshoreWindZoneEOffshoreWindZoneE

區(qū)域區(qū)域

OffshoreWindZoneBOffshoreWindZoneB

BB

OffshoreWindZoneDOffshoreWindZoneD

OffshoreWindZoneFOffshoreWindZoneF

ZoneZone

OffshoreWindZoneG

OffshoreWindZoneG

OffshoreWindZoneBOffshoreWindZoneBOffshoreWindZoneBKeyTakeaway#3:SelectonshoreCREZswillbeimpactedbyoffshorewind,providingopportunitiesforstrategictransmissioninvestmentsinthePhilippines.Thesevenoffshorewindzonesareanticipatedtoimpact10onshoreCREZsinthePhilippines.Usingleast-costcapacityexpansionprinciples,thepotentialimpactoneachCREZvariesbasedonscenariosforfutureoffshorewinddeployment.Forinstance,theCREZwiththehighestoffshorewindcapacityin2030underthedifferentscenariosisL6,rangingfromalowofapproximately461MWintheWorldBankLow-Growthscenariotoahighofapproximately2,699MWinthePhilippineEnergyPlanCleanEnergyScenario2.Theresultsforallyears,scenarios,andCREZsareshowninFigureES-5.ThePhilippines’stakeholderscanusethisinformationtoplanandprioritizestrategictransmissioninvestments,inlinewiththeirexistingCREZandtransmissionplanningprocesses.FigureES-5.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZforthedifferentgrowth

3CREZCREZ。根據(jù)未來海上風(fēng)電部署的不同情CREZ的潛在影響有所不同。例如，在不同情景下，2030CREZL646122,699CREZ的結(jié)果 TableofExecutive KeyTakeaway#1:Offshorewindhasamorestablegenerationprofilecomparedtoonshorewindandsolarphotovoltaics,supportingfurthergridintegrationofvariablerenewableenergyinthe KeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloating KeyTakeaway#3:SelectonshoreCREZswillbeimpactedbyoffshorewind,providingopportunitiesforstrategictransmissioninvestmentsinthe RenewableEnergy RelevantBackground ProjectMotivationand OffshoreWindResource

TableofExecutive Ke1生能源的進一步電網(wǎng)集成 要點#K#3：CREZ引言.RenewableEnergy RelevantBackground ProjectMotivationand OffshoreWindResource Dataand CapacityFactor SupplyCurve OffshoreWindTransmission CREZ PotentialInfrastructure

方法 CREZ

........... Key KeyTakeaway#1:OffshorewindhasamorestablegenerationprofilecomparedtoonshorewindandsolarPV,supportingfurthergridintegrationofVREinthe KeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloatingturbines. KeyTakeaway#3:SelectonshoreCREZswillbeimpactedbyoffshorewind,providingopportunitiesforstrategictransmissioninvestmentsinthe Next

結(jié)論. 1：與陸上風(fēng)電和光伏相比，海上風(fēng)電具有更穩(wěn)定的發(fā)電曲線，支持VRE3324. #3：部分陸上CREZ將受海上風(fēng)電影響，為菲律賓的戰(zhàn)略輸電投資提供機遇. AppendixA.Additional

A.附加數(shù)據(jù).

ListofFigureES-1.PriorREZsandoffshorewindworkinthePhilippinesleadingtothis FigureES-2.OnshoreCREZs(L2–Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzones FigureES-3.Schematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthe FigureES-4.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzoneandlinkedonshoreCREZ,disaggregatedbyturbine FigureES-5.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZforthedifferentgrowth Figure1.Componentsofcandidate Figure2.Selectbarriersforrenewableenergydevelopmentintraditionaltransmission Figure3.SelectREZcasestudiesimplementedthroughouttheworld(UnitedStates,Mexico,SouthAfrica,India,Bangladesh,Australia,NewZealand,andthe Figure4.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidononshorewindresource

ES?2CREZ（L2–Py2）與近海風(fēng)電開發(fā)區(qū)（A–G）ES?3.圖2.傳統(tǒng)輸電規(guī)劃中可再生能源發(fā)展的選擇障礙圖3.全球范圍內(nèi)實施的選擇可再生能源區(qū)案例研究（西蘭和菲律賓）4CREZ

... ...................Figure5.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidonsolarresourcedata...................................................................... Figure5.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidonsolarresource Figure6.OffshorewinddevelopmentzonesfromtheWorldBankroadmap(A–F)andRMIstudy Figure7.Gridcellsinoffshorewinddevelopmentzones,separatedbyfixedandfloatingturbine Figure8.Schematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthe

6。世界銀行路線圖（A?F）RMI研究（G）中的近海風(fēng)電開發(fā)區(qū)7。近海風(fēng)電開發(fā)區(qū)中的電網(wǎng)單元，由固定式和浮式風(fēng)機區(qū)域分隔8

............Figure9.SoutheastAsiawindresource Figure10.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)foreachoffshorewindzone Figure11.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)permonthforeachoffshorewindzone

Figure9.SoutheastAsiawindresource Figure10.A平均offshorewind容量ityf參與者(%)foreachoffshorewindzone 11。每個近海風(fēng)電區(qū)的月平均近海風(fēng)電容量因子（）（2009?2021）Figure12.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzone,disaggregatedbyturbinetype Figure13.Averagesite-basedLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzone,disaggregatedbyturbine Figure14.Averagelevelizedcostoftransmission($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzone,disaggregatedbyturbinetype

12。每個近海風(fēng)區(qū)的技術(shù)潛在容量（MW）LCOE（$/MWh）13LCOE（$/MWh），平準 輸 區(qū)域F 14.平 cost ($/MWh)for平準 輸 區(qū)域

......Figure15.Supplycurveforoffshorewindzones....................................................................................... Figure15.Supplycurveforoffshorewind Figure16.Supplycurveforoffshorewindzones,disaggregatedbyturbine Figure17.Diagramofradial(left)versusnetworked(right)offshore Figure18.OnshoreCREZs(L2–Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzones

17。徑向（左）與網(wǎng)絡(luò)化（右）18CREZs（L2–Py2）與海上風(fēng)電開發(fā)區(qū)（A–G）

........Figure19.CREZL2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with

圖19。CREZL2：2017年平均月份的可再生能源發(fā)電小時變化率（），包含（和不含（太陽能光伏+陸andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure20.CREZL3:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure21.CREZL6:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind

上風(fēng)電）圖21。CREZL6：2017年某月VRE發(fā)電小時變化率（%），包含（和不包含（太陽能光伏+陸上風(fēng)電海上風(fēng)電）

.......Figure22.CREZL10:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewindincluded Figure23.CREZMr1:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewindincluded Figure24.CREZMr2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure25.CREZN1:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure26.CREZN2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind

圖22。CREZL10：2017年某月VRE發(fā)電小時變化率（%），包含（全部）和不包含（太陽能光伏+風(fēng)電）海上風(fēng)電）......23。CREZMr1：2017VRE（），包含（全部）和不包含（+上風(fēng)電）海上風(fēng)電）24。CREZMr2：2017VRE（），包含（全部）和不包含（+陸上風(fēng)電）海上風(fēng)電）圖25。CREZN1：2017年某月VRE發(fā)電小時變化率（%），包含（和不包含（太陽能光伏+陸上風(fēng)電海上風(fēng)電）26。CREZN2：2017VRE發(fā)電小時變化率（），包含（和不包含（+陸上風(fēng)電）海上風(fēng)電）

..........Figure27.CREZPy1:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind

27。CREZPy1：2017年某月VRE（），包含（全部）和不包含（太陽能光伏+Figure28.CREZPy2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewindincluded Figure29.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,andturbinetypefortheWorldBankLowGrowthscenario Figure30.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,andturbinetypefortheWorldBankHighGrowthscenario

28。CREZPy2：2017（），包含（全部）（太陽能光伏+陸上風(fēng)電）29CREZ、連接的海上風(fēng)電區(qū)和渦輪機類型的世界銀行低增長情景下的最低成本海上風(fēng)電部署。30CREZ

......Figure31.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,andtypeforthePhilippineEnergyPlanReference Figure32.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,and

31CREZ..圖32。基于CREZ、連接的海上風(fēng)電區(qū)和渦輪機類型的最低成本海上風(fēng)電部署 typeforthePhilippineEnergyPlanCleanEnergyScenario

..Figure33.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,and

33CREZ2typeforthePhilippineEnergyPlanCleanEnergyScenario Figure34.PriorREZsandoffshorewindworkinthePhilippinesleadingtothis Figure35.CREZL2:VREdailygenerationprofilesforanaveragemonthof Figure36.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzoneandlinkedonshoreCREZ,disaggregatedbyturbine Figure37.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZforthedifferentgrowth FigureA-1.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneA FigureA-2.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneB FigureA-3.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneC FigureA-4.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZone

34。菲律賓先前可再生能源區(qū)（REZ）35。CREZL2：201736CREZ（MW）LCOE（$/MWh），37CREZFiA1A（2009?2021）每小時平均近海風(fēng)電容量因子（）FiA2B（2009?2021）每小時平均近海風(fēng)電容量因子（）FigureA?3C（2009?2021）每小時平均容量因子（）FigureA-4.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZone

.............. FigureA-5.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZone

FigureA-6.Averageoffshorewindcapacity FigureA-6.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneFigureA6F（2009?2021）每小時平均容量因子（） ...FigureA-7.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneA?7G（2009?2021）每小時平均離岸風(fēng)容量因子（ ListofTableES-1.AnticipatedOffshoreWindDeploymentinthePhilippinesUnderDifferentFuture TableES-2.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforEachOffshoreWindZone,DisaggregatedbyTurbineType

ES?2LCOE

... Table1.DetailsofOffshoreWindZones..................................................................................................... Table1.DetailsofOffshoreWind Table2.OffshoreWindTechnologyPerformance Table3.OffshoreWindCost Table4.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforEachOffshoreWindZone,DisaggregatedbyTurbineType

3.4LCOE

...........Table5.DetailsofCREZsLinkedtoOffshoreWindZones...................................................................... Table5.DetailsofCREZsLinkedtoOffshoreWind Table6.AnticipatedOffshoreWindDeploymentinthePhilippinesUnderDifferentFutureScenarios...24Table7.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforOffshoreWindWithPotentialtoInterconnectattheDifferentOnshoreCREZs,DisaggregatedbyOffshoreWindZoneandTurbine Table8.OffshoreWindCapacityImpactingEachCREZUnderDifferent

7CREZsLCOE和技術(shù)潛在容量，按海上8CREZ

.....Table9.CREZsandAssociatedTransmissionProject(s),notAccountingforFutureOffshore

/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryatRenewableEnergyArenewableenergyzone(REZ)isageographicareathatenablesthedevelopmentofcost-effectiveutility-scalerenewableenergyandischaracterizedbyhigh-qualityrenewableenergyresources,suitabletopographyandlandusedesignations,andstrongcommercialinterest(Lee,Flores-Espino,andHurlbut2017).High-qualityrenewableenergyresourcescanbeestimatedwithsolarirradianceandwindspeeddata;suitabletopographycanbeassessedviadataonprotectedenvironmentalareas,urbanareas,waterbodies,andslope;andstrongcommercialinterestcanbeconfirmedusinginformationoneconomicdevelopmentareasordemonstratedprivatesectorinvestment.TheseREZcomponentsaredisplayedinFigure1.Figure1.ComponentsofcandidateSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),adaptedfromLopezTheREZconcept,firstpioneeredintheU.S.stateofTexas,wasdevelopedasatransmissionplanningframework,enablingstateregulatorstoproactivelyplan,approve,andbuildtransmissioninfrastructuretoconnecthigh-qualityandlarge-scalerenewableresourcestothebulkpowersystem(Hurlbut,Chernyakhovskiy,andCochran2016).ThisapproachoftransmissionplanningusingREZsisintendedtoremovesomeofthebarrierstorenewableenergydevelopmentinherentintraditionaltransmissionplanning,showninFigure2.Onebarrierisamisalignmentoftimescales,asbulktransmissioncantakeseveraldecadestoplanandconstruct,whileplanningandconstructionofrenewableresourcessuchaswindandsolarcantakeseveralyearsincomparison.Anotherbarrieriswhatisknownasthe“circulardilemma,”inwhicharenewableenergydeveloperhasdifficultyobtainingfinancingbecausethelenderswantconfidenceaboutadequatetransmissioncapacity,whiletransmissionrequiresregulatoryapproval,andultimatelytheregulatorswanttoensurethatthetransmissioninvestmentcanrecoveritscoststhroughusebyagenerator.TheREZtransmissionplanningprocess,particularlyapplicableforrenewableenergyexpansionthatisconstrainedbyinsufficientgridcapacity,canhelpaddressthesebarriersbyproactivelycoordinatingrenewableenergyandtransmissiondevelopmentinordertoconnectlow-costresourceswithdemandcenters.

可再生能源區(qū)（REZ）以及濃厚的商業(yè)興趣（LeeFlores?EspinoandHurlbut2017）。高質(zhì)量的可再生REZ1圖1.候選REZBillyRoberts（NREL）Lopez（2016）可再生能源區(qū)（REZ）的概念最早在美國德克薩斯州提出，最初作為輸電規(guī)劃框架發(fā)展而來，使州監(jiān)管機構(gòu)能夠主動規(guī)劃、批準和建設(shè)輸電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以將高質(zhì)量和大規(guī)模的可再生能源資源連接到主要電力系統(tǒng)（HurlbutChernyakhovskiyCochran2016）REZ2 Figure2.SelectbarriersforrenewableenergydevelopmentintraditionaltransmissionSource:Leeetal.KeyenablersofREZsincludeprocessclarity(i.e.,outliningclearandtransparentprocessesforREZselectionandbuildout),strongstakeholderengagement(i.e.,engagingprivatedevelopers,landowners,andgovernmentministries,etc.),high-qualitydata(i.e.,makingdecisionsusingbestavailableresource,land-use,andeconomicdata),andregulatoryweight(i.e.,ensuringthattheREZtransmissionprocessisincorporatedintoregulatoryproceedingsfortransmissionapproval)(JoshiandDesai2023).RelevantBackgroundTheREZprocesshasbeenimplementedtovaryingdegreesthroughouttheworld,includinginthePhilippines,andhasbeentailoredtoeachcountryorregion’sparticularresourcemix,geography,andelectricindustrystructure(Figure3).Figure3.SelectREZcasestudiesimplementedthroughouttheworld(UnitedStates,Mexico,SouthAfrica,India,Bangladesh,Australia,NewZealand,andthePhilippines)Sources:Hurlbut,Harrison-Atlas,andGu(2022);Brachoetal.(2022);DFFE(2022);Deshmukhetal.(2017);Joshietal.(2023);AEMO(2022);TranspowerNewZealandLimited(2022);Leeetal.(2020).

Figure2.SelectbarriersforrenewableenergydevelopmentintraditionaltransmissionSource:Leeetal.REZ（REZ）、強有（即使用最佳可用資源、土地利用和經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)做決策），以及監(jiān)管權(quán)重（REZ電流程納入輸電審批的監(jiān)管程序）（JoshiDesai2023）。REZ源組合、地理和電力行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行了定制（3）圖3.世界各地實施的REZ案例研究（美國、?西哥、南非、印度、孟加拉國、澳大利?、新西蘭和菲律來源：HurlbutHarrison?AtlasGu(2022Bracho2022DFFE2022；Deshmukh2017Joshi2023；AEMO(2022Transpower2022Lee2020)。ThePhilippineshasbeenaleaderinincorporatingREZsintotheirpowersectordevelopmentplans.AgridintegrationstudyfortheLuzon-Visayassystemassessedthefeasibilityofachieving30%and50%renewableenergyintheelectricitymixby2030,andoneofthekeyfindingsisthatachievinghighlevelsofwindandsolarintegrationwillrequirecoordinatedplanningofgenerationandtransmissiondevelopment,potentiallythroughacompetitiverenewableenergyzones(CREZs)approach(Barrowsetal.2017).ThisrecommendationwasenactedinPhase1ofthePhilippinesCREZproject,whichidentified25individualCREZsacrossthePhilippineswithhigh-qualityresources,limiteddevelopmentconstraints,andstrongprivatesectorinterest.Thestudyfocusedprimarilyononshorewindandsolarphotovoltaics(PV)toidentifytheCREZs,andsubsequentlyquantifiedbiomass,geothermal,andhydropowerresourceswithintheseCREZs(Leeetal.2020).The25CREZs,overlayedonmapsofthePhilippines’onshorewindandsolarresources,areshowninFigure4andFigure5,respectively.Figure4.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidononshorewindresourceSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),fromLeeetal.

菲律賓在將可再生能源區(qū)（REZs）納入其電力部門發(fā)展計劃方面一直處于領(lǐng)先地位。對?Visayas20303050需要協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)電和輸電發(fā)展計劃，可能通過競爭性可再生能源區(qū)（CREZs）的方法（Barrows2017）CREZ25CREZs。該研究主要關(guān)注陸上風(fēng)電和光伏（PV）CREZsCREZs物質(zhì)能、地熱能和水電資源（Lee2020）25CREZs45Figure4.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidononshorewindresource來源：BillyRoberts（NREL）Lee（2020）/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat Figure5.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidonsolarresourceSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),fromLeeetal.TeamsfromthePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergy,theNationalGridCorporationofthePhilippines,andtheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)modeledtransmissionexpansionoptionsinsummer2019toconnecttheseCREZstothemaingrid,examiningthecostsandbenefitsbybuildingupontheproductioncostmodeldevelopedfortheLuzon-Visayasgridintegrationstudy(Barrowsetal.2017).Phase2ofthePhilippinesCREZprojectinvolved,amongotheractivities,enhancingthePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergy’scapabilitiesforlong-termelectricityloadmodeling,whichisakeyinputingenerationandtransmissionplanning(Zhouetal.2023).ThisreportispartofPhase3ofthePhilippinesCREZproject,whichbuildsuponthefoundationofthispriorworkandincorporatesoffshorewindintotheCREZtransmissionplanningframework.

5.菲律賓CREZsSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),fromLeeetal.菲律賓能源部、菲律賓國家電網(wǎng)公司和美國能源部國家可再生能源實驗室（NREL）的2019CREZs?（Barrows2017）開發(fā)的生產(chǎn)成本模型基CREZZhou2023）CREZCREZ/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryatProjectMotivationandThePhilippinesisaimingtobuildadomesticoffshorewindindustryandhasincorporatedoffshorewindintoseveralplanningefforts.Forinstance,theWorldBankhasdevelopedacomprehensiveoffshorewindroadmapforthePhilippines,includingtwogrowthscenariosandidentifyingseveraloffshorewindzones,alongwithanalysisaboutenergycosts,supplychains,transmissioninfrastructure,ports,financing,andmore(WorldBank2022).OneoftherecommendationsfromtheWorldBankroadmapisforthePhilippinestoincorporatetheoffshorewinddevelopmentzonesfullyintoCREZsandtransmissiondevelopmentplanning.RMIhasconductedapre-feasibilitystudyandinterconn