2025美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)改善報(bào)告

本文檔由funstory.ai的開源PDF翻譯庫(kù)BabelDOCv0.3.27(http://yadt.io)翻譯，本倉(cāng)庫(kù)正在積極的建設(shè)當(dāng)中，歡迎star和關(guān)注。22IMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGOFHARVARD

22JointCenterforHousingStudiesofHarvardHarvardGraduateSchoolofDesign|HarvardKennedy

HarvardGraduateSchoolofDesign|HarvardKennedyTableofIntroductionand

EvolvingTrendsinIndustry

RemodelingMarketsin ChangingHousehold

andClimate

and Remodelingand

和氣候改造趨勢(shì)的演變

TheJointCenterforHousingStudiesthanksABCSupplyCompanyforsponsoringtheproductionofImprovingAmerica’sHousingPrincipalsupportforthisreportwasprovidedbythePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies.PolicyAdvisory

TheJointCen感謝ABC供應(yīng)公司贊助ImprovingAmericasHousing2025的出 ABCSupplyCompanyAndersenCorporationBuildersFirstSourceCornerstoneBuildingBrandsFergusonEnterprisesFortuneBrandsInnovationsTheHomeDepot

Louisiana-PacificCorporationLutronElectronicsMarvinWindowsandDoorsMascoCorporationNationalGypsumCompanyOldcastleAPG,aCRHCompanyPellaCorporationSaint-

StandardIndustriesU.S.WellsFargo

ABC商第一源基石建筑品牌菲爾格

APG，CRH

Sherwin?WilliamsUSGAdditionalsupportwasprovidedbymembercompaniesoftheRemodelingFuturesSteering

ACREWindows&DoorsBuildingIndustryPartnersBuildingSupplyChannel,Inc.CaseArchitects&RemodelersClearwaterExteriorsCustomDesign&ConstructionDAPProducts,Inc.TheFarnsworthGroupFeldcoHomeRenewalFSBrandsInforma

JacuzziBathJohnBurnsResearchandConsultingLavinMediaLowe’sCompanies,Inc.MosbyBuildingArts,NationalAssociationofHomeNationalAssociationofNationalAssociationoftheRemodelingIndustryOwensConstructionProfessionalRemodelerMagazineProfessionalRemodelingCollectiveRenewalbyAndersenofGreaterWisconsin

RenovationSellsServiceFinanceCompanySolaGroup,Inc.SouthwestStyleSynchronyFinancialSystemPaversThompsonCreekU.S.CensusU.S.DepartmentofU.S.DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentWestShoreWestlakeRoyalBuilding

ACRE窗戶和門建筑行業(yè)合作伙伴建筑材料供應(yīng)渠道公司案例建筑師和翻新商清水外立面定制設(shè)計(jì)及施工DAP產(chǎn)品公司EverFenceFarnsworth集團(tuán)Feldco家居翻新FS品牌Google漢高公司家居改善研究學(xué)院HouzzInforma市場(chǎng)公司

JacuzziBathJohnBurnsResearchandConsultingLavinMediaLowesCompanies,Inc.MosbyBuildingArts,NationalAssociationofHomeNationalAssociationofNationalAssociationoftheRemodelingIndustryOwensConstructionProfessionalRemodeler雜志安德森翻新公司（威斯康星州大區(qū)

翻新銷售Renovo家居合作伙伴Rockwool服務(wù)金融公司Sola集團(tuán)股份有限公司西南風(fēng)格斯蒂夫斯父子有限公司Synchrony金融系統(tǒng)鋪路工ThompsonCreek美國(guó)人口普查局美國(guó)能源部美國(guó)住房和城市發(fā)展部西岸之家西爾克湖皇家建筑材Foradditionalinformation,datatables,andinteractivecharts,ortodownloadaPDFofthisreport,visit?2025bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardTheopinionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofHarvardUniversity,thePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies,sponsorsoftheRemodelingFuturesProgram,orotherpersonsororganizationsprovidingsupporttotheJointCenterforHousingStudies.

?2025bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardTheopinionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofHarvardUniversity,thePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies,sponsorsoftheRemodelingFuturesProgram,orotherpersonsororganizationsprovidingsupporttotheJointCenterforHousingStudies.JOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITSpendingintheUSresidentialremodelingmarketreachedunprecedentedheightsinthewakeoftheCOVID-19pandemic,soaringabove$600billionin2022.Despitemodestdeclinesin2023and2024,marketexpendituresforimprovementsandrepairstoowner-occupiedandrentalpropertiesremainedfarabovepre-pandemiclevels.Thisextraordinaryboomwasdrivenbystronggrowthinthenumberofownersundertakingprojectsandinaveragespending,bolsteredbyahealthylabormarket,record-highpropertyvalues,andaginghomesinneedofinvestment.Manyownerscontinuetoadapttheirpropertiesforchangingneedsanduses,evenastoday’slowerratesofpersonalsavingsandhouseholdmobilitydampenimprovementandrepairspending.

在COVID?19大流行之后，美國(guó)住宅翻新市場(chǎng)支出達(dá)到了前所未有的高度，2022年飆升至6000億美元以上。盡20232024Significantinflationinthecostsofbuildingmaterialsandlaborcoupledwithalargeandpersistentskilledtradelaborshortagehavechallengednotonlyownersseekingtoupdateandmaintaintheirproperties,butalsoprofessionalcontractingfirms.Overcomingtheseobstaclesisessentialinordertomeetthecurrent

futuredemandformodernizingandpreservingtheinrecentyears,muchmoreinvestmentisrequiredtoenergyefficiency,disasterresiliency,andaccessibilityforthenation’s145millionhomes.

步改善國(guó)家1.45億住房的能源效率、災(zāi)害恢復(fù)能力和無障FigureTheHomeRemodelingMarketIsExpectedtoRemainAbove$600Billionin

Figure2025年6000 MarketMarketSpending(Billionsof603300 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023HomeownerImprovements HomeownerMaintenance RentalImprovements RentalMaintenance

MarketSpending(Billionsof 609603300 MarketSpending(Billionsof 609603300 336HomeownerImprovements HomeownerMaintenance RentalImprovements RentalMaintenance

INTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYNote:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LeadingIndicatorofRemodelingActivity(LIRA).Source:JCHSanalysisofUSDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment(HUD),AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,SurveysofResidentialAlterationsandRepairs(C-50);USINTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;and

Note:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LeadingIndicatorofRemodelingActivity(LIRA).Source:JCHSanalysisofUSDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment(HUD),AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,SurveysofResidentialAlterationsandRepairs(C-50);USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andREMODELINGEXPENDITURESREMAINELEVATEDThepandemicsparkedaspendingboominimprove-ments—whichincludeprojects,whetherdiscretionaryorrequired,thattypicallyboosthomevalues—andinroutinemaintenanceandrepairsthat

Thesharpincreasesince2019waspropelledbytheowner-occupiedsegment,whichaccountsformorethan80percentoftotalexpenditures.In2023,boththenumberandtheshareofhomeownersspendingonimprovementsremainedabovepre-pandemiclevelsandratesatalmost26millionhouseholds

201980%。2023占比均保持在疫情前水平之上，幾乎達(dá)到260萬(wàn)戶家庭和29.7%。201922006000到6500萬(wàn)戶，但業(yè)主在維護(hù)上的支出占比從2019年2023752023preventdepreciation.Sincepeakingat$611billionin2022,theremodelingmarkethascontractedslightlyinthefaceofmixedeconomicandindustrialcondi-remainnearitspeakthrough2025,accordingtothelatestestimatesandprojectionsfromtheJointCenterforHousingStudies.Themarketdeclineintheaftermathofthepandemic

28.0percentofowners,wereundertakingimprove-ments.Theshareofownersspendingonmaintenanceasthenumberincreasedfrom60millionto65million.Onaverage,homeownersspentalmost$4,700onimprovementsin2023,nearly9percentaboveperafteradjustingforinflation.Additionally,averageperownermaintenancespendinghitanewhighof

翻新市場(chǎng)在面臨混合的經(jīng)濟(jì)和工業(yè)條件下略有收縮（見圖1）。改善支出接近4.7萬(wàn)美元，比2007年市場(chǎng)繁榮時(shí)期的每戶然而，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年，支出最終將保持在峰值附近 支出高出近9%，經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后。此外，平均每戶維護(hù)支ofconsumerdemandforhomeimprovementsandtobeshort-livedandmild,especiallycomparedtothepreviousdownturnduringtheGreatRecession,whenfrompeaktotrough(Figure2).TheCenterforecaststhattheremodelingmarketwillreturntogrowthin2025,butataratewellbelowthehistoricalaverageannualgainofabout5percent.

Someearlypandemicshiftsinthecompositionofhomeimprovementspendinghavesincerevertedtopre-pandemictrends.Aggregateimprovementexpendituresbecamemoreconcentratedamonghigh-spendinghouseholdsbetween2021and2023ashomeownersfocusedrelativelylessondo-it-lations.Duringthesameperiod,ownerexpendituresonprojectsthatoftenrequireskilledlabor—such

比，當(dāng)時(shí)房屋改善和維修支出從峰值到谷底下降了17%（見圖表）2025但增長(zhǎng)率將遠(yuǎn)低于約5

前趨勢(shì)。2021年至2023年間，隨著業(yè)主相對(duì)減少對(duì)DIYFigure FigureTheTheRemodelingDownturnIsExpectedtoBeShort-Livedand

200520062007200820092010 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

10

200520062007200820092010 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

ChangeinHomeImprovement&MaintenanceSpendingHistoricalAverageAnnualGrowth

ChangeinHomeImprovement&MaintenanceSpendingHistoricalAverageAnnualGrowthNotes:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LIRA.Historicalaverageannualgrowthisfrom1995to2023.Source:JCHSanalysisofHUD,AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,C-50;USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andLIRA.

Notes:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LIRA.Historicalaverageannualgrowthisfrom1995to2023.Source:JCHSanalysisofHUD,AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,C-50;USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andLIRA.JOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITkitchenandbathremodels,interiorreplacementsincludingflooring,systemreplacementslikeelectricalandHVAC,anddisasterrepairs—increasedatafasterpacethantheimprovementmarketoverall.Annualspendingonprofessionallyinstalledprojectsgrew14spendingdeclined13percent.DEMOGRAPHICCHANGESTRANSFORMTHEChanginghomeownerdemographicsareimpactingthesizeandcompositionoftheimprovementmarket.oftotalimprovementoutlays,upfrom14percenttwodecadesearlier.Thisgainreflectsthelargeincreaseinthenumberofolderhomeownersandtheconsid-erablegrowthintheiraveragespending.Between2003and2023,thenumberofownersage65andovergrewby12million,pushingtheirshareofownersfrom24percentto34percent.Overthesametime,theiraverageperownerspendingclimbedfromanmorethantwicethe48percentgrowthinpercapitaspendingamongallhomeowners.

Youngerhomeownershavealsoincreasedtheirimprovementspendinginthepastdecade,althoughtheworseninghousingaffordabilitycrisissuppressestheirranksandtheircontributionstotheremodelingmarket.AfterasteepdeclineinthewakeoftheGreatRecession,thenumberofhomeownersunderage35grew15percentto8millionbetween2015and2023,thanduringthemid-2000shousingboom.Whilerealaggregatespendingbyownersunderage35jumped51percentoverthesameperiod,theirmarketexpen-ditureremained14percentbelowthepriorpeak.Astheoverallpopulationbecomesmoreraciallyandethnicallydiverse,householdsheadedbyapersonofcolorcontributemoretothehomeimprovementmarketdespiteenduringdisparitiesinincome,home-ownership,andhomeequity.In2023,homeownersofcoloraccountedfor23percentofaggregateimprovementexpenditures,upfrom14percentin2003.Thiscorrespondedwithanearly9percentagepointincreaseintheshareofhomeownerhouse-holdsheadedbyapersonofcolor.Immigrantownersaccountforagrowingshareofthemarketaswell,upfrom8percentofaggregateimprovementexpen-dituresin2003to13percentin2023.Foreign-

2021年至2023年間，專業(yè)安裝項(xiàng)目的年度支出在真實(shí)意義上增長(zhǎng)了14%，而DIY支出下降了13%。2023年，65歲及以上的業(yè)主貢獻(xiàn)了總改善支出的27%，2014%。這一增長(zhǎng)反映了老年業(yè)主數(shù)量的大幅增加以及他們平均支出的顯著增長(zhǎng)。在2003年至2023業(yè)主份額從24%推高到34%。在同一時(shí)期，他們的人均支出從2003年的通貨膨脹調(diào)整后的1800美元增加到2023年的3800美元——比所有業(yè)主的人均支出增長(zhǎng)48%還要

貢獻(xiàn)。在大衰退之后急劇下降后，2015年至2023年間，35歲以下的房主數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)了15%，達(dá)到800萬(wàn)，但比20002535房主在同期內(nèi)的實(shí)際總支出增長(zhǎng)了51%，但他們的市場(chǎng)支出仍比之前的高峰低14%。房屋所有權(quán)和房屋凈值方面仍然存在差距。2023年，有色人種房主占總體改善支出的23%，比2003年的14%增長(zhǎng)9920038202313FigureOwnerOwnerMobilityHasDroppedAfteraPandemic-Induced20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NumberofRecentMoversRecentMoverShareofOwners(Rightscale)Notes:Recentmoversboughttheirhomeswithinthepreviousyear.Estimatesfor2020areomittedduetodatacollectionissuesexperiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Year

20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NumberofRecentMoversRecentMoverShareofOwners(Rightscale)experiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Yearownersrepresentmuchlargersharesofmetrohomeimprovementmarketswhereimmigranthouseholdsconstitutegreaterproportionsofhomeowners.Althoughthenumberandshareofhomeownerschangingresidencesincreasedearlyinthepandemic,homeownermobilityhassincedroppedbelowitspre-pandemicrateamidelevatedinterestrates,highAccordingtotheAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS),thenumberofownerswhomovedinthepreviousyearfellfrom5.7millionto4.7millionbetween2021and2023aftergrowingbyabout800,000householdsbetween2019and2021.Elevatedmortgagerateswilllikelycontinuetoconstrictmobility,leavingmanywould-bebuyersunabletoaffordahomeanddisincentivizingownerswithbelow-marketratesfromselling.Homeownermobilitytypicallyboostsimprovementspendingasownerspreparehomesforsaleandbuyersprioritizeimprovementsduringthefirstyearsafterpurchase.Ownerswhoundertakepre-saleproj-ectstypicallyspendtwiceasmuchasownersoverall,whilerecenthomebuyersconsistentlyoutspendnon-moversbymorethanathird.Accordingly,fallingmobilityratesareexpectedtoreducedemandforthesortsofimprovementsthatoftenaccompanyahomesale.However,underthecurrentcircumstances,theordi-narilynegativeeffectoflowermobilityonhomeimprovementspendingmaybesomewhatoffsetbyotherspendingpatternsthatstemfromthedeclineofhousingturnover.Thatis,ownerswhoremaininimprovementstofacilitatelongertenuresandaddresschangingneeds.Forexample,ownersplan-ningtostayputmaydecidethatanewrooforamoreenergy-efficientHVACsystemisabetterinvestmentmarketforcesremainstobeseen.

AGINGHOUSINGSTOCKCALLSFORREINVESTMENTThehousingstockisolderthaneverbefore.Withamedianageof44yearsin2023,thestockhasagedconsiderablysincetheGreatRecessiondrovehome-buildingtohistoriclows(Figure4).Atthesametime,improvementsinbuildingconstructionstandardsandmaterialshaveextendedthelongevityofhomes,furthercontributingtoaging.Butashomesage,moreimprovementsareneededtoreplaceworncompo-nentsandsystems,suchasroofsandHVAC,inaddi-tiontothestandardmaintenance.In2023,averageperownerimprovementspendingforhomesbuiltbefore1980was24percenthigherthanspendingonhomesbuiltsince2010,andaverageperownermaintenancespendingwas76percenthigher.TheongoingagingofthehousingstockwilldrivestrongrepairandimprovementspendingforyearstoPublicandnonprofitassistanceisalsorequiredtoaddressinadequatehousingconditionsforhouse-holdsthatlacktheresourcestofundneededrepairsandupgrades.Homeownerswithlowerincomesspendmuchlessonimprovementandrepairthantheirhigher-incomecounterparts,whichjeopar-dizessafeandhabitablelivingconditions.In2023,averageperownerimprovementandmaintenancespendingamonghomeownerswithannualhouseholdincomesinthelowestquintile(lessthan$37,500)was$3,100comparedto$10,900amongthosewithincomesinthehighestquintile(morethan$172,000).Consequently,6percentofownerswiththelowestincomesliveinmoderatelyorseverelyinadequatehousingthathasstructuraldeficienciesorlacksbasicfeaturessuchasrunningwater,electricity,andheat,nearlydoubletheshareofownersoverall.Thereisbothamarketopportunityandamoralimperativeforexpandingdirecthomeimprovementandrepairservices,financingtools,andcounselingprogramsthathelptopreservetheaffordablehousingstockandensurethatallhouseholdsliveinsafeandadequatehousing.

流動(dòng)性自那時(shí)以來已降至疫情前的水平（見圖3）。根據(jù)美國(guó)社區(qū)調(diào)查（ACS），2021年至2023年間，上一年搬家的房主數(shù)量從570萬(wàn)下降到470萬(wàn)，而在2019年HVAC系統(tǒng)比臨時(shí)維修投資更好。這些相互對(duì)抗的市場(chǎng)

住房庫(kù)存比以往任何時(shí)候都要老。2023歲，自大衰退迫使住宅建設(shè)達(dá)到歷史低點(diǎn)以來，庫(kù)存已經(jīng)顯著老齡化（4）。與此同時(shí)，建筑構(gòu)造標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和材料的改進(jìn)延長(zhǎng)了房屋的使用壽命，進(jìn)一步加劇了老齡化。但是，隨著房屋的變老，需要更多的改善來更換磨損的組件HVAC，以及標(biāo)準(zhǔn)維護(hù)。2023201024%76%。住房庫(kù)存的持續(xù)老齡化將在未來幾年推動(dòng)強(qiáng)勁的維修和改善支出。還需要公共和非營(yíng)利機(jī)構(gòu)的援助來解決缺乏資金進(jìn)行必要維修和升級(jí)的家庭的住房條件不足問題。低收入房主的改善和維修支出遠(yuǎn)低于高收入房主，這威脅到安全和適宜的居住條件。2023（375003100109006FigureFigureFigureFigureJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITTheHousingStockHasAgedMedianAgeofHousingUnits

TheHousingStockHasAgedMedianAgeofHousingUnits Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All

Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All

Note:AllincludesvacantSource:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousing

Note:AllincludesvacantSource:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousingIMPROVEMENTSPENDINGInconfrontingglobalclimatechange,theneedtoimprovetheenergyperformanceanddisasterresilienceofthehousingstockgrowsincreasinglyurgent.Themarketforhomeimprovementproj-ectsthatinfluenceandthushavethepotentialtoreducehomeenergyconsumption,suchasroofing,HVAC,andwindows,hasnearlyquadrupledinthelasttwodecadescomparedtoatriplingofoverallspending.SpurredinpartbyincentivesforenergyretrofitsfollowingtheGreatRecession,theshareofaggregatehomeownerspendingonenergy-relatedmorethan7percentagepointsto36percentandhassincemaintainedanelevatedmarketshare.In2023,projectsthataffecthomeenergyuseaccountedforpercentofthenationaltotal.Inaddition,17percentofhomeowners(nearly15millionhouseholds)reportedundertakingoneormoreprojectsintheprevioustwoyearsexplicitlytoimproveenergyefficiency.Furtherincreasesinenergy-relatedremodelingare

taxcredits.In2023,thefirstfullyearthatthelaw’scleanenergyandenergy-efficienthomeimprove-menttaxcreditswereavailable,morethan3.4milliontaxfilersclaimedthesecreditsforsuchprojectsasrooftopsolarinstallations,insulation,windows,andelectricheatpumps.Thesefilingsindicategrowingconsumerinterestinanddemandforenergy-relatedupgrades.Evenwiththeincreasedspending,muchofthehousingstockstillrequiresextensiveretrofitstoimprovehomeenergyperformance.Housingisalsoimpactedbythechangingclimatethroughthegrowingfrequencyandintensityofhazardeventslikehurricanes,tornadoes,wildfires,andflooding.Homeownerspendingfordisasterrepairshastrendedupinallregionsofthecountry,totaling$49billionin2022–2023,ascomparedto$16billionin2002–2003afteradjustingforinflation(Figure5).AggregatespendinggrowthhasbeenespeciallystrongintheNortheast,buttheSouthandtheWesthavealsohadabove-averagegains.Meanwhile,disasterrepairspendingasashareofnationalimprovementexpendituresincreasedfromanaverageof4.4percentinthedecadebefore2004to6.4percentinthedecadesince2013.

改造激勵(lì)措施，2009年至2011年間，家庭主人在能73620231400占全國(guó)總量的34%。此外，17%的家庭主人在過去兩年中2022

《稅收減免法案》（IRA），包括住宅翻新退稅和稅收抵免。2023年，該法案的清潔能源和節(jié)能住宅改善稅收抵免首次可用，超過340萬(wàn)納稅人申報(bào)了這些抵免，用于屋頂?shù)胤恐鞯臑?zāi)害修復(fù)支出呈上升趨勢(shì)，2022?2023年總額達(dá)到490億美元，而經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后，2002?2003年的總額160（5）。綜合支出增長(zhǎng)在東北部尤為強(qiáng)20044%上升到2013年之后的6.4FigureSpendingforDisasterRepairsIsTrendingUpAcrosstheDisasterRepairSpending(Billionsof2023

FigureDisasterRepairSpending(Billionsof2023 WestWest2002–20032004–20052006–2007

MidwestSouth

ShareofTotalImprovementSpending(Rightscale)

MidwestSouth WestShareofTotalImprovementSpending(Rightscale)Notes:Disasterrepairsareasubsetofimprovementspendingonowner-occupiedhomes.ExpendituresareadjustedforinflationusingtheCPI-UforAllItems.Source:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousing

Notes:Disasterrepairsareasubsetofimprovementspendingonowner-occupiedhomes.ExpendituresareadjustedforinationusingtheCPI-UforAllItems.Source:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousingTheneedremainsfordisastermitigationretrofitsthatmakehomesmoreresilientagainstweather-andclimate-relatedhazardsandreducefuturedamage.winds,elevatingmechanicalequipmentsuchasHVACandwaterheatersorentirehomesabovefloodlevels,andreplacingexteriormaterialswithnoncombustiblealternatives.Althoughfewhomeownersundertakemitigationprojects,thereareincreasingmotivatorstodoso,includingskyrocketinghazardinsurancepremiums.Thenationalaveragehomeownerinsur-ancepremiumjumped17percentbetween2021and(AHS).Risinginsurancecostsaswellasincreasingdisasterexposurewillalmostcertainlydrivegrowthinthedisastermitigationmarket.SUPPLY-SIDECHALLENGESDespitegrowingconcentrationamonglarger-scalefirmsandnotableprivateequityinvestment,mergers,andacquisitions,theresidentialremodelingindustryremainshighlyfragmented,withlargesharesofself-employedcontractorsandsmallpayrollbusi-nesses.Nearlytwo-thirdsofgeneralremodelingcontractorswithpayrollshadrevenuesofless

$500,000atlastmeasurein2017.Consequently,theremodelingsectorsuffershighratesofbusinessclos-ingsevenduringstrongmarkets.Thetypicalgeneralremodelingbusinessemploysfewerthanfourstaff,evenasthenumberoftheseestablishmentswithpayrollshasgrownrapidlysincetheGreatRecession.Thisongoingfragmentationhindersthecapacityofprofessionalcontractorstomeetdemand.Theremodelingindustryisfurtherconstrainedbytheandlaborsincethepandemic.Shortagesoflaboralsoworkerssuchascarpenters,masons,electricians,andplumbers,accordingtotheNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders(NAHB)(Figure6).Theconstructionmanyyears,withimmigrantsaccountingforarecord-breaking34percentoftheskilledtradeslaborforceinandfemaleworkers,aswellasnon-Hispanicpeopleoftheworkforce,butmoremustbedonetomeetcurrentandfuturelaborneeds.

將機(jī)械設(shè)備如HVAC和水加熱?或整個(gè)住宅提升到洪水水包括飆升的災(zāi)害保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率。根據(jù)美國(guó)住房調(diào)查（AHS），20212023

截至2017年最后一次測(cè)量，金額為50萬(wàn)美元。因此，即根據(jù)美國(guó)住宅建筑商協(xié)會(huì)（NAHB）的數(shù)據(jù)，2015年2023（如木匠、者，2023年移民占熟練工種勞動(dòng)力總數(shù)的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的34%。FigureFigureFigureFigureJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITMostRemodelersContinuetoExperienceSkilledTradeLaborShareofRemodelersReportingSomeorSeriousShortagesofSubcontractorLabor

ShareofRemodelersReportingSomeorSeriousShortagesofSubcontractorLabor

Note:Dataareaveragesofthefollowingtrades:roughandfinishedcarpenters,electricians,excavators,framingcrews,roofers,plumbers,masons,painters,weatherizationworkers,andHVACworkers.Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/WestlakeRoyal,RemodelingMarket

Note:Dataareaveragesofthefollowingtrades:roughandnishedcarpenters,electricians,excavators,framingcrews,roofers,plumbers,masons,painters,weatherizationworkers,andHVACworkers.Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/WestlakeRoyal,RemodelingMarketInvestmentsinconstructionresearchanddevelop-mentholdpromiseforbothdecreasingthecostsandincreasingtheproductivityofthecurrentlaborforce.elingandrepairhavebeenminimal.Advancementsinpredictivetechnologiesthatusedatafromsensorsorpropertyinspectionstoidentifyneededrepairsorimprovementsarepromisingforexpandingdemand.Buttheremodelingindustry’scapacitytoinvestintheseandothertechnologies,trainings,orbuildingconstructionandmaterialinnovationsislimitedbyitshighfragmentation.THEInthenearterm,theremodelingindustryfacesbothchallengesandopportunities.Ontheonehand,elevatedinterestrates,weakhomesales,highlaborandmaterialcosts,andapersistentshortageofskilledlaborareexpectedtoconstrainthemarket.Atthesametime,massivelevelsofhomeequity,

sustainedshifttowardworkingfromhome,favor-abledemographics,andtheagingofthehousingstockwillsupportsignificantinvestmentinhomeimprovementsandmaintenance,perhapsmostnotablyamongownerswhoprioritizeupdatingtheirexistinghomesovermoving.Theremodelingmarkethasfurtheropportunitiestoadapthomestoaddressdeficienciesinaccessibility,energyefficiency,anddisasterresilience.Giventhestrongfoundationandgrowingneeds,resi-dentialremodelingisexpectedtoremainaformidableeconomicsector.Improvementsandrepairstotheexistinghousingstockhaveconstitutedamajorityanunforeseenboominhomebuilding,thistrendisanticipatedtolast.Homeimprovementandrepairspendingislikelytoremainneartherecentpeakandthereforeshouldcontinuetoplayasignificantroleinresidentialinvestments.

Theresidentialremodelingmarketsoaredtonewheightsinthewakeofthepandemic,drivenbystronggainsinboththenumberofpropertyownerspursuingprojectsandaveragespendinglevels.Expendi-turesforimprovementsandrepairstoowner-occupiedandrentalpropertiestopped$600billionin2022.Thoughtheremodelingmarketcooledin2023,spendinglevelsremainedelevatedasowners“l(fā)ockedinplace”byhighinterestratesandhomepricesundertookprojectstomeettheirchangingneedsoverlongertenures.Withthephenomenalgrowthinrenovationandrepairspending,themarkethasfarsurpassedthepriormid-2000speak,evenafteradjustingforconsiderablepriceinflation.

2022年，業(yè)主自住和出租物業(yè)的改善和維修支出超過了6000億美元。盡管2023年翻新市場(chǎng)有所降溫，但由于高利率和房?jī)r(jià)，業(yè)主鎖定位置”，支出水平仍然很高，他們進(jìn)行了項(xiàng)目以滿足長(zhǎng)期需求的變化。隨著翻新和維修支出的驚人增長(zhǎng)，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了調(diào)整后的2000年代中期峰值。REMODELINGMARKETSINTRANSITIONPANDEMICFUELSUNPRECEDENTEDSPENDINGREMODELINGMARKETSINTRANSITIONThedramaticimpactsofthepandemiconhouseholdpreferences,behaviors,andhousingwealthresultedinenormousinvestmentinimprovementsandrepairstotheexistinghousingstock.Spendinginthehomeremodelingmarketskyrocketed51percentfrom$404latestestimatesfromtheCenter.Thiswasanaverageannualgainof10.8percent—morethantwicethemarket’shistoricalaverageof4.2percentfro