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Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理-山東大學(xué),秦2024/3/26Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactors usedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowtheassessmentofcountryriskisusedbyMNCswhenmakingfinancialdecisions.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦CountryRiskAnalysisCountryriskrepresentsthepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentontheMNC’scashflows.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦CountryRiskAnalysisCountryriskcanbeused:tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCispresentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoimprovetheanalysisusedinmakinglong-terminvestmentorfinancingdecisions.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦PoliticalRiskFactorsAttitudeofConsumersintheHostCountrySomeconsumersmaybeveryloyaltohomemadeproducts.AttitudeofHostGovernmentThehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,subsidizelocalfirms,orfailtoenforcecopyrightlaws.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦PoliticalRiskFactorsBlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoods.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦WarInternalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.BureaucracyBureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.CorruptionCorruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.PoliticalRiskFactorsCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦CorruptionPerceptionsIndexTheindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.RankCountryScore 1 Finland 9.9 3 NewZealand 9.4 4 Singapore 9.2 7 Canada 8.9 13 U.K. 8.3 14 HongKong 7.9 16 Israel 7.6 16 U.S.A. 7.6 18 Chile 7.5 20 Germany 7.4 21 Japan 7.1RankCountryScore 23 France 6.7 26 Botswana 6.0 27 Taiwan 5.9 38 SouthAfrica 4.8 42 SouthKorea 4.2 46 Brazil 4.0 51 Mexico 3.7 57 Argentina 3.5 57 China 3.5 79 Russia 2.3 88 Indonesia 1.9Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦FindoutmoreaboutTransparencyInternationalandtheCorruptionPerceptionsIndexbyvisiting/documents/cpi/2001/cpi2001.html.OnlineApplicationCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦FinancialRiskFactorsCurrentandPotentialStateoftheCountry’sEconomyArecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.IndicatorsofEconomicGrowthAcountry’seconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦Whatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?OnlineApplicationConsulttheCountryCommercialGuidespreparedbyembassystaffat/website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform.RefertotheCIA’sWorldFactbookat/.Visit/ifc/Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦TypesofCountryRiskAssessmentAmacro-assessmentofcountryriskisanoverallriskassessmentofacountrywithoutconsiderationoftheMNC’sbusiness.Amicro-assessmentofcountryriskistheriskassessmentofacountryasrelatedtotheMNC’stypeofbusiness.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦TypesofCountryRiskAssessmentTheoverallassessmentofcountryriskthusconsistsof:Macro-politicalriskMacro-financialriskMicro-politicalriskMicro-financialriskCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦Notethattheopinionsofdifferentriskassessorsoftendifferduetosubjectivitiesin:identifyingtherelevantpoliticalandfinancialfactors,determiningtherelativeimportanceofeachfactor,andpredictingthevaluesoffactorsthatcannotbemeasuredobjectively.TypesofCountryRiskAssessmentCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskAchecklistapproachinvolvesratingandweightingalltheidentifiedfactors,andthenconsolidatingtheratesandweightstoproduceanoverallassessment.TheDelphitechniqueinvolvescollectingvariousindependentopinionsandthenaveragingandmeasuringthedispersionofthoseopinions.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskQuantitativeanalysistechniqueslikeregressionanalysiscanbeappliedtohistoricaldatatoassessthesensitivityofabusinesstovariousriskfactors.Inspectionvisitsinvolvetravelingtoacountryandmeetingwithgovernmentofficials,firmexecutives,and/orconsumerstoclarifyuncertainties.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦Often,firmsuseavarietyoftechniquesformakingcountryriskassessments.Forexample,theymayuseachecklistapproachtodevelopanoverallcountryriskrating,andsomeoftheothertechniquestoassignratingstothefactorsconsidered.Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦DevelopingACountryRiskRatingAchecklistapproachwillrequirethefollowingsteps:Assignvaluesandweightstothepoliticalriskfactors.Multiplythefactorvalueswiththeirrespectiveweights,andsumuptogivethepoliticalriskrating.Derivethefinancialriskratingsimilarly.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦DevelopingACountryRiskRatingMultiplytheratingswiththeirrespectiveweights,andsumuptogivetheoverallcountryriskrating.Assignweightstothepoliticalandfinancialratingsaccordingtotheirperceivedimportance.Achecklistapproachwillrequirethefollowingsteps:Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦DevelopingACountryRiskRatingDifferentcountryriskassessorshavetheirownindividualproceduresforquantifyingcountryrisk.Althoughmostproceduresinvolveratingandweightingindividualriskfactors,thenumber,type,rating,andweightingofthefactorswillvarywiththecountrybeingassessed,aswellasthetypeofcorporateoperationsbeingplanned.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦DevelopingACountryRiskRatingFirmsmayusecountryriskratingswhenscreeningpotentialprojects,orwhenmonitoringexistingprojects.Forexample,decisionsregardingsubsidiaryexpansion,fundtransferstotheparent,andsourcesoffinancing,canallbeaffectedbychangesinthecountryriskrating.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦ComparingRiskRatings

AmongCountriesOneapproachtocomparingpoliticalandfinancialratingsamongcountriesistheforeigninvestmentriskmatrix(FIRM

).Thematrixmeasuresfinancial(oreconomic)riskononeaxisandpoliticalriskontheotheraxis.Eachcountrycanbepositionedonthematrixbasedonitspoliticalandfinancialratings.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦UnclearZoneAcceptableZoneUnacceptableZoneFinancialRiskRatingPoliticalRiskRatingAcceptableUnacceptableStableUnstableTheForeignInvestmentRiskMatrix(FIRM)Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦ActualCountryRiskRatingsAcrossCountriesSomecountriesareratedhigheraccordingtosomeriskfactors,butloweraccordingtoothers.Onthewhole,industrializedcountriestendtoberatedhighly,whileemergingcountriestendtohavelowerriskratings.Countryriskratingschangeovertimeinresponsetochangesintheriskfactors.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦/data/wdi2001/pdfs/tab5_2.pdf/icrg/icrg.html///moodys/cust/loadBusLine.asp?busLine=sovereign/OnlineApplicationHowriskyisyourcountry?Lookup:Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦IncorporatingCountryRiskinCapitalBudgetingIftheriskratingofacountryisintheacceptablezone,theprojectsrelatedtothatcountrydeservefurtherconsideration.Countryriskcanbeincorporatedintothecapitalbudgetinganalysisofaprojectbyadjustingthediscountrate,orbyadjustingtheestimatedcashflows.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦AdjustmentoftheDiscountRateThehighertheperceivedrisk,thehigherthediscountratethatshouldbeappliedtotheproject’scashflows.AdjustmentoftheEstimatedCashFlowsByestimatinghowthecashflowscouldbeaffectedbyeachformofrisk,theMNCcandeterminetheprobabilitydistributionofthenetpresentvalueoftheproject.IncorporatingCountryRiskinCapitalBudgetingCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦Applicationsof

CountryRiskAnalysisAlertedbyitsriskassessor,GulfOilplannedtodealwiththelossofIranianoil,andwasabletoavoidmajorlosseswhentheShahofIranfellfourmonthslater.However,whiletheriskassessmentofacountrycanbeuseful,itcannotalwaysdetectupcomingcrises.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦Applicationsof

CountryRiskAnalysisIraq’sinvasionofKuwaitwasdifficulttoforecast,forexample.Nevertheless,manyMNCspromptlyreassessedtheirexposuretocountryriskandrevisedtheiroperations.The1997-98AsiancrisisalsoshowedthatMNCshadunderestimatedthepotentialfinancialproblemsthatcouldoccurinthehigh-growthAsiancountries.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦OnlineApplicationFormoreinformationontheAsiancrisis,checkoutthefollowingsites:/~nroubini/asia/AsiaHomepage.html/navigat/english/asienhau.htmCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversThebenefitsofDFIcanbeoffsetbycountryrisk,themostsevereofwhichisahostgovernmenttakeover.Toreducethechanceofatakeoverbythehostgovernment,firmsoftenusethefollowingstrategies:UseaShort-TermHorizonThistechniqueconcentratesonrecoveringcashflowquickly.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversRelyonUniqueSuppliesorTechnologyInthisway,thehostgovernmentwillnotbeabletotakeoverandoperatethesubsidiarysuccessfully.HireLocalLaborThelocalemployeescanapplypressureontheirgovernment.Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦BorrowLocalFundsThelocalbankscanapplypressureontheirgovernment.PurchaseInsuranceInvestmentguaranteeprogramsofferedbythehomecountry,hostcountry,oraninternationalagencyinsuretosomeextentvariousformsofcountryrisk.ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦TheU.S.governmentprovidesinvestmentinsurancethroughtheOverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporation(OPIC).VisittheOPICat/.TheWorldBank’sMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency(M

IGA)offerspoliticalriskinsurancetoinvestorsinemergingeconomies.VisittheM

IGAat.OnlineApplicationCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦ImpactofCountryRiskonanMNC’sValue E(CFj,t) = expectedcashflowsincurrencyjtobereceivedbytheU.S.parentattheendofperiodt E(ERj,t) = expectedexchangerateatwhichcurrencyjcanbeconvertedtodollarsattheendofperiodt k = weightedaveragecostofcapitaloftheparentExposureofForeignProjectstoCountryRisksCh16CountryRiskAnalysis(國(guó)際金融管理山東大學(xué),秦WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportan

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