世界貿(mào)易組織（WTO）：將數(shù)字貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)化為非洲發(fā)展的催化劑

①

Turning

DIGITALTRADE

intoaCatalystfor

AfricanDevelopment

WORLDTRADEORGANIZATION

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EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Digitalizationmakesiteasierandlesscostlytobuyandsellgoodsandservicesacrossborders.Digitaltechnologiesreducethecostofinternationaltrade,facilitateconnectionsbetweenproducersandconsumersaroundtheworld,anddiffuseideas.Allthisistransforminginter-nationaltradeintermsofhowwetrade,whotrades,andwhatwetrade.Exportsofdigitallydeliveredservices-fromcall-centeractivitiestocomputerservicesandfrommedicaltran-scriptiontobankingservices-havealmostquadrupledinvaluesince2005andhavegrownfasterthanexportsofgoodsandotherservices.Today,theymakeupmorethanhalfofglobalservicesexportsandaround12percentoftotalexports.

InAfrica,tradeindigitallydeliveredservicestradealsoisgrowingrapidly,thoughitsshareinglobaltraderemainssmall.InMorocco,Egypt,Ghana,andMadagascar,forexample,growthsince2015hasexceededtheglobalpace,boostedbybusinessprocessoutsourcingandinformationtechnology.Acrossthecontinent,enhanceduseofdigitaltechnologiesisprojectedtoincreasedigitalservicesexportsbyUSS74billionfrom2023to2040,doublingAfrica'sglobalshare.

ThisrapidgrowthcreatesopportunitiesforeconomictransformationasAfrica'sexportbasketexpandstoincludenewmarketsandproductsanddomesticcompetitivenessstrengthensthroughimportsofkeyinputservices.Improveddigitalconnectivity,coupledwithacompre-hensiveenablingregulatoryenvironment,hasthepotentialtoreducetradecostsbyupto25percent.Thereareotherbenefits.Digitallydeliveredservicesofferawaytoside-stepsomeoftheobstaclestotradeinAfrica,includingoutdatedtransportinfrastructureandrelativelyhighbarrierstomerchandisetrade.Bybringingsuppliersintodirectcontactwithcustomers,digitaltradefostersinclusiveness,benefitingespeciallyMSMEs,women,andyouth.Threeoutoffourfirmstradingexclusivelythroughe-commerceinAfricaareownedbywomen.

Harnessingthebenefitsofdigitaltraderequiresasupportiveecosystem.Connectivity,skills,electronicpayments,customsandlogistics,andanenablingpolicyframeworkareessentialcomponents.Africa'sconnectivityinfrastructure,thoughstilllaggingbehindtheworld'sfront-runners,hasadvancedgreatlyinthelastdecadeandnowconnectsalmosthalfthecontinent.Nonetheless,majoreffortsarestillneeded,inparticulartoupgradenetworkspeedandreliability.InBurundi,forexample,downloadingaone-gigabytefilesuchasasmalldatabaseormedium-sizedsoftwareapplicationlikeMicrosoftWordtakesabouthalfanhour,comparedwithhalfaminuteinSingapore.

Thestrongcomplementaritybetweencomponentsofthedigitalecosystemneedstoinformpolicyaction.Gapsintheregulatoryandpolicyframeworkareweighingontheuseofdigitaltechnologiesforproductivepurposes.Itisthereforecriticallyimportantthatadvancesinconnectivityinfrastructureproceedinparallelwithpolicyandregulatoryreformstoensurethatmoderntechnologiescanbeleveragedfortheirgrowthanddevelopmentalpotential.Policymakersshouldalsoincreasetheirengagementinregionalandinternationaldigital

TURNINGDIGITALTRADEINTOACATALYSTFORAFRICANDEVELOPMENT

tradeprocessestoharnesstheircomplementaritywithdomesticreforms.

Theinternationalcommunity,includingtheWorldBankGroupandtheWTO,isplayingakeyroleinhelpingAfricaovercomethesechallenges.Forexample,theWorldBank'sDigitalEconomyInitiativeforAfrica(DE4A),insupportoftheAfricanUnion'sDigitalTransformationStrategy,aimstogeteveryindividual,business,andgovernmentinAfricadigitallyenabledby2030.Tothatend,theWorldBankhassetuporincreasedloansfor17countriessinceJuly2021,withoverUSS3.2billionincommitments.Beyondconnectivity,theBankprovidessupporttoimproveskillsandpaymentsinfrastructureandstrengtheninstitutionsandregulations,oftenundercomprehensiveprogramsthataddressthesevariousissuesinparallel.

TheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)playsarolethroughitsbodyofrulesandcommitments,whichfosterspredictability,providesanopportunitytoanchor

enablingpolicies,andguaranteesmarketaccessfordigitaltrade.TheWTO'sworkondigitaltrade,includingunderthee-commerceWorkProgramandtheJointStatementInitiativeonelectroniccommerce,alsooffersopportunitiesforAfricancountriestobenchmarkandstrengthentheirregulatoryframeworks.ThereisamplescopefortheWorldBankandtheWTOtodeepentheircooperationtosupportAfricancountriesinleveragingdigitaltradeasatoolforgrowthanddevelopment.

ThisnotesetsoutconcretenextstepsforWorldBank-WTOcooperationondigitaltradeinAfrica.Workingtogether,thetwoorganizationsintendtoconductneedsassessmentstodetectgapsindigitaltradeframeworksandidentifypossiblepolicyactionandWorld-Bankfinancedinterventionstoclosethosegaps.Aspartoftheneedsassessment,theWorldBankandtheWTOplantoholdpolicydialogueswithofficialsandotherstakeholderstohelpstrengthentheparticipationofAfricancountriesinongoingworkondigitaltradeattheWTO.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TurningDigitalTradeintoaCatalystforAfricanDevelopmentisajointpolicynotebytheWorld

BankandtheSecretariatoftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).Thenotewasco-authoredbyRobertaPiermartiniandAntoniaCarzanigafromtheWTOandMartinMolinuevoandJustineWhitefromtheWorldBank,underthesupervisionofAsadAlam(RegionalDirector),MonaHaddad(GlobalDirector),andSébastienDessus(PracticeManager)attheWorldBank,andAnabelGonzález,XiangchenZhang(bothDeputyDirectorsGeneral),RalphOssa(Director,EconomicResearchandStatisticsDivision)andXiaolinChai(Director,TradeinServicesandInvestmentDivision),attheWTO.

Theauthorsaregratefultocolleaguesfrombothinstitutionsfortheirusefulcommentsandguidanceduringvariousstagesofpreparationofthepublication.AttheWTO,theauthorswishtothankEddyBekkers,BarbaraD'AndreaAdrian,ManuelNéry,StelaRubinová,andKarstenSteinfattfortheirhelpfulinputs,commentsandsuggestionsandChiaraBellucciandTinotendaMatairefortheirresearchassistance.

AttheWorldBank,specialthanksareowedtoWaleedAlatabani,DougPearce,ConsolateRusagara,JanaMalinska,AlejandroEspinosa-Wang,AlexandreaSchwind,WycliffThlalefangMoeletsi,IsabelNeto,CeciliaParadi-Guilford,AnkurHuria,andChrisWelliszfortheirvaluableinputsandsuggestions.

iv

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVESUMMARY.i

.il

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.

INTRODUCTION..1

DIGITALTRADEASANEWSOURCEOFGROWTHAND

DEVELOPMENT

3

1.Trendsindigitaltrade.

3

2.HowdigitaltradehelpsAfrica'seconomicdevelopment..63.Howdigitaltradebeneftswomen,youngpeopleand

smallbusinesses.9

ⅡTHEDETERMINANTSFORDIGITALTRADEINAFRICA13

1.Connectivityinfrastructure.

13

2.Digitalskillsandentrepreneurship

15

3.ElectronicPayments

19

4.Customsandlogisticsfore-commerce..19

5.Policiesandregulations.

21

IVCONCLUSIONSANDWAYAHEAD .

23

1.Polieyimpliccfions

23

2.Howcaninternationalcooperationhelp?.25

REFERENCES...33

INTRODUCTION

Digitalizationmakesiteasierandlesscostlytobuyandsellgoodsandservicesacrossborders.Digitaltechnologiesreducethecostofengagingininternationaltrade,allowdirectconnectionsbetweenproducersandconsumersaroundtheworld,helpdiffuseideasandtechnologies,andfacilitatetheco-ordinationofglobalvaluechains(GVCs).Allthisaffectshowwetrade,whotrades,andwhatwetrade.Forexample,servicesdeliveredremotely,includingoverdigitalplatforms(or"digitally-deliveredservices"),havebecomeanincreas-inglyimportantcomponentofoveralltrade.TheWTOestimatesthatglobalexportsofdigitallydeliveredserviceshavealmostquadrupledinvaluesince2005.Theyroseatanaveragerateof8.1percentperyearfrom2005to2022,outpacinggoods(5.6percent)andotherservicesexports(4.2percent).Attheendof2022,digitallydeliveredservicestotaledUSS3.82trillion,or54percentoftotalglobalservicesexports'and12percentoftotalgoodsandservicesexports.

Thedigitalizationofinternationaltradelookssettocontinueasdigitalinnovationadvancesandagrowingnumberofgovernmentsbuildprogramstosupportdigitalization.AsremoteworkbecomeswidespreadaftertheCOVID-19pandemic,morefirmsinrichcountrieslookseftoimportintermediateservicesfortaskssuchasaccounting,graphicdesign,andsoffwareengineering.Digitaltradeinsectorssuchastelemedicineislikelytogrowtofilltheneedsofanageingpopulationintheadvancedeconomiesandanincreasingworkforceingeographicallyremotelocations.

Thedigitalizationoftradeiscreatingfreshopportunitiestoboostgrowth,createbetterjobs,andfostermoreinclusiveeconomies.Tradehasbeenadriverofgrowthandcross-countryincomeconvergenceandhasliftedhundredsofmillionsofpeopleoutofpoverty.Butsomecountriesandpeoplehavebeenleftbehind.Andsincethe2008financialcrisis,itsgrowthhasplateaued,raisingquestionsaboutwhethertradestilloffersdevelopingcountriesaclearpathtoprogress.Developingcountries,especiallyinAfrica,facetheprospectofsloweradvancesinlivingstandardsandreducedopportunitiesunlesstheycanfindwaystoharnessdigitaltechnologiestopromotetrade.

ThisnoteexaminestheopportunitiesandchallengesthattheriseofdigitaltradepresentsforAfrica.ThisjointpolicynotebytheWorldBankandthesecretariatoftheWorldTradeOrganizationismotivatedbyasharedviewthattheriseofdigitaltradeofferssignificantopportunitiesforAfricancountriestoboostgrowth,createbetterjobs,andreducepoverty.Thenotereviewsthemaintrendsindigitaltradeonthecontinentanddiscusseshowitcansupporteconomicgrowthanddevelopment.ItthenfocusesonthedeterminantsofdigitaltradeandthechallengesAfricancountriesface.Theconclusiondiscusseshowtheinterna-tionalcommunityissupportingAfricancountries'effortstoovercomechallengesandhowtheWorldBankandtheWTOcandeepentheircollaborationtohelpAfricancountriesreapthebenefitsofdigitaltrade.

1MeasuredonaBalance-of-Paymentsbasis.

TURNINGDIGITALTRADEINTOACATALYSTFORAFRICANDEVELOPMENT

Thisnotedefinesdigitaltradeasincludingbothdig-itallyorderedand/ordigitallydeliveredgoodsandservices.ThisisthedefinitionadoptedbythestatisticalHandbookonMeasuringDigitalTrade.Officialdatafordigitallyorderedtradearesparseandnotcomparableacrosscountries.Statisticsononlinesalesdonottyp-icallydistinguishbetweendomesticandinternationaltrade.WTOestimatesonexportsofdigitallydeliveredservicesprovideameasureofdigitallydeliveredtrade(WTO2023).IntheWTO,thetermusedis"electroniccommerce,"whichisdefinedundertherelevantWorkProgramas"theproduction,distribution,marketing,saleordeliveryofgoodsandservicesbyelectronicmeans"andiswellinlinewiththeHandbook'snotionofdigitaltrade.Thisnoteusesthetermsdigitaltradeandelectroniccommerceinterchangeably.

Africancountriesstandtogainfromdigitaltrade,

butmoreinvestmentandbetterpoliciesareneeded.

Connectivityinfrastructure,thoughstilllagging,hasadvancedgreatlyinthelastdecadeandnowcoversalmosthalfthecontinent.Itiscriticallyimportantthatsuchadvancesgohandinhandwithpolicyandreg-ulatoryreformstoensurethatdigitalcommunicationsareaffordable,citizenshavethenecessarydigitalandentrepreneurialskills,andbusinessescanleveragethoseopportunities.Tradepolicycanplayakeyrolebyprovidingaframeworkthatfosterspredictabilityandpromotesaccesstoglobaldigitalmarketswhileadvancingbroaderpublicpolicygoals.

3

DIGITALTRADEASANEW

SOURCEOFGROWTHAND

DEVELOPMENT

AlthoughAfricarepresentsalowpercentageofglobaldigitaltrade,digitally

deliveredservicesinAfricaaregrowingfastrelativetofradeingoodsandnon-digitallydeliveredservices.

Digitaltradecanactas

anengineofgrowthby

expandingexportbasket

toincludenewmarkets

andproduct,andby

strengtheningdomestic

compefitivenessthrough

importsofkeyinput

services

Africahasconsiderable

pofentialfoboostdigital

tradebyimproving

digitalinfrastructureand

regulations

Byavoidingintermediariesandbringingsuppliersintodirectcontactwiththeir

customers,digitaltrade

canfosterinclusiveness,

benefifingespecially

MSMEs,youth,and

women

1.Trendsindigitaltrade

Africarepresentsasmallshareofglobaltradein

digitallydeliveredservices.In2022,Africaaccounted

forjust0.9percentofworldexportsoftheseservices.

Thisislowerthanthecontinent'sroughly3percent

shareofglobalgoodsexportsandofGDROnaver-

age,Africa'sexportsofdigitallydeliveredserviceshave

increasedby7.3percentperyearsince2015(justbelow

theglobalaverageof8.6percent).Africa'sgrowthrate

wasslowercomparedwiththeMiddleEast's(11.2per-

cent)anddevelopingAsia's(12.5percent),anditwasin

linewithgrowthinSouthandCentralAmericaandthe

Caribbean(7.3percent).

CHART1GrowthofdigitallydeliveredservicesinAfricahaslaggedbehindtherestoftheworld.

(Exports,2015-2022.Index2015=100)

250

Source:WTOGlobalTradeOutlook2023.

TURNINGDIGITALTRADEINTOACATALYSTFORAFRICANDEVELOPMENT

Nonetheless,therearepositivesigns:

■Exportsofdigitallydeliveredservicesareacceler-ating.Africa'sexportsofdigitallydeliveredservicesgrewby8percentin2022,doubletherateoftherestoftheworld,toreachclosetoUSS33billion(Chart1).

Exportsofdigitallydeliveredserviceshavebeengrowingfasterthantradeingoodsandotherser-vices.WhileAfrica'sexportsofdigitallydeliveredserviceshaveincreasedby7.9percentonaverageperyearsince2005,itsexportsofgoodshaveincreasedby4.7percent(Chart2).Moreover,while

Africa'sshareinglobalexportsofdigitallydeliveredserviceshasremainedconstant,itsshareofgoodstradehasfallenfrom3.4percentin2010to2.8per-centin2022.

Exportgrowthisconcentratedinasmallnumberofcountries.Threecountries(Ghana,Morocco,andSouthAfrica)wereresponsibleformorethanhalfoftheregion'sexportsofdigitallydeliveredservicesin2022.InthesecountriesandMadagascar,growthsince2015hasexceededthatoftherestoftheworld,ledbybusinessprocessoutsourcing(BPO)andITservices(Chart3).

CHART2Africa'sexportsofdigitallydeliveredserviceshavegrownfasterthanexportsofgoods

andotherservices.

(Exports,2005-2022.Index2005=100)

450-

CHART3AhandfulofAfricancountries

dominatedigitalexports.

(LeadingexportersofdigitallydeliveredservicesinAfrica,milionsofdollarsandshareintheregion'sexports)

8,000

Milliondollars

Source:WTOestimates.

Source:WTOestimates.

Miliondollars

TURNINGDIGITALTRADEINTOACATALYSTFORAFRICANDEVELOPMENT

BOX1GhanaandMorocco:Africa'semergingdigitaltradesuccessstories

GhanaisthelargestexporterofdigitallydeliveredservicesinAfrica,withexportsworthUSS6.2billionin2022,anda19percentshareintheregion.AccordingtoWTOestimates,Ghana'sexportshavebeenrisingby30percentonaverageperyearsince2005,exceedinggrowthintherestofAfrica(6.6percent).

In2022,business,professional,andtechnicalservices,whichincludeBPO,accountedfor77percentoftotalexportsofdigitallydeliveredservices.Ghana'slargepoolofEnglish-speakingworkersattractedforeigninvestmentinthesector.In2019,therewereover20registeredBPOcompaniesandmorethan50innovationhubs.?

Whilestilllowinvalueterms,Ghana'sexportsofcomputerandinformationserviceshavegrownatarapidpaceoverthelastfewyears.From2019to2022,digitallydeliveredcomputerservicesexportsincreasedmorethanfivefoldtoUSS31million,whileinformationservicesexports,whichincludedatabaseservices,grewby88percenttoUSS11million.Severalglobaltechcompanies-suchastheAmericanTowerCorporation,Google,IBM,Oracle,andUber-arepresentinthecountry.AvibrantITsectoremergedwithcompaniescompetinggloballyinsoffwareandapplicationsplatformsforeverythingfromfinanceandpaymentstoagricultureandmedicalservices.

Ghana'ssuccessindigitalexports-builtonafoundationofstrongpolicies,regulatorymeasures,andlegalframe-works-ensuresthatconsumersareprotectedandfostersastablebusinessenvironment.Thecountry'stelecom-municationinfrastructureiswell-developedbyregionalstandards.Thegovernmenthasimplementedprogramstoimprovedigitalliteracy,technicaltraining,andentrepreneurship.Thisfocusonhumancapitaldevelopmenthasyieldedapooloftalentedprofessionalswhocancontributetogrowthandinnovation.

Morocco'sexportsofdigitallydeliveredservicesgrewatanaverageannualrateof9percentfrom2005to2022.Business,professional,andtech-nicalservicesarethelargestsectors,followedbytelecommunicationsandcomputerservices.Engineeringoutsourcing-suchassoftwaredevel-opment,electronicsdesign,mechanicalengineer-ing,andcivilengineering-isthriving,growingby35percentperyearfrom2019to2022(ChartB1).

Thesuccessofthisindustrycanbeattributedtoareliabletelecominfrastructure,withhigh-speedInternetandaskilledworkforceinnumerousITfields,includingnetworkdevelopment,softwaredesign,andcomputermodelling.Morocco'sstra-tegicgeographiclocation,culturalandlinguisticassets,lowercost,andfavorabletaxprovisionsmakeitanattractivedestinationforbusinesspro-cessoutsourcing.3

CHARTB1Morocco'sengineeringoutsourcing

serviceshavegrownrapidly.

managementoutsourcingoutsourcingoutsourcing

Source:OfficedesChanges,Morocco.

?GhanaDE4ALOWRes,pdf().

3Pitch_Engineering.pdf().

TURNINGDIGITALTRADEINTOACATALYSTFORAFRICANDEVELOPMENT

2.HowdigitaltradehelpsAfrica'seconomic

development

Tradeboostseconomicgrowth,andsodoesdigitaltrade.Tradeimprovesresourceallocation,allowingcountriestotakeadvantageofeconomiesofscale,anditfostersinnovation,technologicaldiffusion,andhumancapitalaccumulation.Whileempiricalevidenceonthepositiveimpactoftradeongrowthhasfocusedontradeingoods,thereisagrowingbodyofevidencethatservicesandservicestradearekeydriversofpro-ductivity,competitiveness,andrisinglivingstandards,andthattheabilitytosupply,accessandexporteffi-cient,affordable,andinnovativeservicesiscentraltoeconomicdevelopment(WTOandWorldBank,2023).

Digitaltradeoffersnewareasofcomparativeadvan-tage.Itdiminishestheimportanceoftransportinfra-structure,whichhasputabreakonAfrica'sparticipationintrade,asasourceofcomparativeadvantage.Atthesametime,thequalityofdigitalinfrastructure,especiallytheavailabilityofareliable,comprehensive,andafford-ablehigh-speedbroadbandnetwork,willincreasinglybecomeacentralfactorforcompetifivenessinthedig-talage.Similarly,astheregulationofthedomesticlabor-marketregulationbecomeslessimportantforcomparativeadvantageduetotheabilitytosourceservicesglobally,theregulationofdataflowswillbecomeakeydriveroftradeindigital-intensivesectors,alongwithregulationsonissuessuchasprivacyandpersonaldataprotection.

ImprovingAfrica'sdigitalinfrastructureandthedigitalregulatoryenvironmentwillincreasetradebyreduc-ingcosts.EstimatesobtainedusingtheWTOTradeCostIndexshowthatimprovingdigitalconnectivityreducescostsbothingoodsandservicestrade,especiallyforbusinessandprofessionalservices.Importantly,the

Note:ThefigureshowstheestimatedaveragereductionintradecostsinAfricainascenariowhereallcountriesimprovetheirmobilebroad-bandaccessatleasttothelevelSouthAfrica(thecountrywiththebestaccessinAfrica).ThethreecolumnsshowtheestimatesdependingontheleveloftheDigitalServicesTradeRestrictivenessIndex(DSTRD.WTOestimatesbasedontheWTOTradeCostIndexmethodology(http://

tradecosts.wtaorg/).

reductionincostsisevengreaterinanopenregula-toryenvironment.IfallofAfricaimproveditsmobilebroadbandconnectivitytothelevelofSouthAfrica,whichhasthecontinent'sbestmobilebroadbandaccess,averagetradecostswouldfallby7percentingoodsand9percentinbusinessandprofessionalservices.AndifAfricancountriesalsoimprovedtheirregulatoryenvironmenttothatofthebestinAfrica,tradecostswouldfallby17and25percent,respec-tively(seeChart4).

ThepotentialgainsofdigitalizationforAfricamaybesignificant.Inascenarioinwhichproductivitygrowsandtradecostsfallbecauseoftheenhanceduseofdigitaltechnologies,Africanregionsincreasetheirexportsofdigitallydeliverableservicesandtheirshare

4Thestudyanalysestradecostdeterminantsusingdatafor2014-2018.Digitalconnectivityismeasuredasthenumberofactivemobilebroad-bandsubscriptionspercapita(datafromITU),takingtheminimumbetweentheimporterandtheexporter.Qualityofdigitaltraderegulationismeasuredasthecomponent"infrastructureandconnectivity"oftheDigitalServicesTradeRestrictivenessIndex(datafromOECD).Partialequilibriumtradecostsareestimatedwithdataon61countriessourcedfrom2021OECDTIVAdatabase,followingthemethodologyproposedbyEggeretal.(2021).EstimatesoftheimpactonAfricaareout-of-samplepredictionsfor13Africanc