（英文）行業(yè)資料 ECB-Monetary Policy and Inflation-report 2023-04-06

MonetaryPolicyand

Inflation

UniversityofCyprus

Nicosia

?5April2023

PhilipR.Lane

MemberoftheExecutiveBoard

RealGDPprojectionssinceDecember2021

Recent(B)MPEprojectionsforrealGDP

(chainlinkedvolumes,2019Q4=100)

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

December2019BMPE

December2022BMPE

December2021BMPE

March2023MPE

21Q122Q123Q124Q125Q1

Source:(B)MPE.MPEreferstoECBstaffmacroeconomicprojections.BMPEreferstoEurosystemstaff

macroeconomicprojections.

2

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ConsumptionandinvestmentprojectionssinceDecember2021

Privateconsumption

(chainlinkedvolumes,2019=100)

December2019BMPE

December2022BMPE

December2021BMPE

March2023MPE

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

20212022202320242025

Totalinvestment

(chainlinkedvolumes,2019=100)

December2019BMPE

December2022BMPE

December2021BMPE

March2023MPE

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

20212022202320242025

Source:(B)MPE.MPEreferstoECBstaffmacroeconomicprojections.BMPEreferstoEurosystemstaffmacroeconomicprojections.

3

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March2023MPE:HICPacrosscomponents

HICP

(annualpercentagechanges)

HICPenergy

(annualpercentagechanges)

HICPfood

(annualpercentagechanges)

HICPexcl.energyandfood

(annualpercentagechanges)

December2022BMPEMarch2023MPE

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

20Q122Q124Q1

40

30

20

10

0

-10

202020212022202320242025

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

202020212022202320242025

5

4

3

2

1

0

202020212022202320242025

Source:March2023MPE.

Note:HeadlineHICPisshownatquarterlyfrequency.ThecomponentsofHICPareshownatannualfrequency.

4

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9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

March2023MPE:HICPandHICPXdevelopments

HICP

(annualpercentagechange;percentagepoints)

Energy

Food

HICPexcludingenergyandfood

TotalHICP

20212022202320242025

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Roleofindirecteffectsfromenergypricesand

exchangerateforHICPX

(leftside:percentagepoints;rightside:percentagechange)

ImpactofexchangeratedepreciationQ12021-Q32022

ImpactofexchangerateappreciationsinceQ42022

ImpactofchangesinsyntheticindexQ12021-Q32022

ImpactofdecreasesinsyntheticindexsinceQ42022

TotalimpactofsyntheticindexandFXsinceQ12021

TotalimpactatthetimeoftheDecember2022BMPE

HICPexcludingenergyandfood(March2023MPE)

23Q123Q324Q124Q325Q125Q3

15

12

9

6

3

0

-3

21Q121Q422Q323Q224Q124Q425Q3

Source:March2023MPE.

Sources:BasicModelElasticities(BME)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Theindirecteffectiscalculatedbyapplyingthehistoricalandassumedmovementsinasyntheticindicator(whichcombinesoilandgasprices)totheBMEsforoilandmovementsinthenominaleffectiveexchangerateoftheeurototheBMEsforthenominaleffectiveexchangerate(NEER).TheBMEsarederivedfromthemacroeconomicmodelsusedintheprojectionsbynationalcentralbanks.

5

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MomentumMomentumMomentumMomentumMomentumMomentum

HICPEnergyFoodHICPXGoodsServices

Inflationmomentum

InflationmomentumforHICPandsub-components

(3months-on-3months;annualisedpercentagechanges)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

72

60

48

36

24

12

0

-12

-24

Jan-22Jul-22Mar-23Jan-22Jul-22Mar-23

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-22Jul-22Mar-23

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-22Jul-22Mar-23

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-22Jul-22Mar-23

Momentum,adjusted

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-22Jul-22Mar-23

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:Momentumisdefinedasannualised3months-on-3monthsrates,seasonallyadjusted.HICPX:HICPexcludingenergyandfood.Theadjustedmomentumseriesontherightpanelcorrespondstoannualised3months-on-3monthsratesexcludingtheeffectsofthe9euroticketinGermany.

ThelatestobservationisforMarch2023(flash).

6

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25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

pressures

Pipeline

PipelinepressuresforfoodandNEIG

(annualpercentagechanges)

Pipelinepressuresforfood

(annualpercentagechanges)

PipelinepressuresforNEIG

(annualpercentagechanges)

HICPprocessedfoodexcl.tobacco

PPIfood

Internationalfood

commodityprices,EUR

(rightside)

Euroareafarmgateprices(rightside)

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

75

60

45

30

15

0

-15

Mar-23

Jan-22

HWWI-industrialraw

materials,EUR

Brentcrude,EUR

Importprices-intermediate

goods(rightside)

Importprices-non-food

consumergoods(rightside)

PPInon-foodconsumergoods

(rightside)

120

24

90

18

60

12

30

6

0

0

-30

-6

-60

-12

Jan-22Mar-23

Pressuresfromproducerpricesonfood(PPItoFebruary2023)

HICPfood

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

21Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3

PressuresfromproducerpricesonNEIG(PPItoFebruary2023)

HICPNEIG

21Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3

Sources:Eurostat,HamburgInstituteofInternationalEconomics(HWWI)andECBcalculations.

Latestobservations:March2023forbrentcrude(EUR),industrialraw

materialsandinternationalfoodcommodityprices;February2023for

HICPprocessedfoodexcl.tobacco,euroareafarmgateprices,PPIfoodandPPInon-foodconsumerfoods;January2023forimportprices.

Sources:Eurostat,ECBstaffestimates.

Notes:ThelatestobservationsareMarch2023(flash)forHICPandFeburary2023forproducerpriceindex(PPI).Theshadedareashows95%confidenceintervalfortheindicatorforproducerpricepressures(IPPI).TheIPPIforfoodisestimatedwithlocalprojectionswithfood(seasonallyadjusted)asdependentvariable,autoregressivetermsandPPIforthefoodindustry.TheresultsfortheIPPIforfooddisplaydirectionalnonlinearities,i.e.ahigherimpactforpositivePPIchangesthannegativeones.TheIPPIforNEIGisestimatedwithlocalprojectionsandnononlinearitiesintheresponseforNEIGwerefound.Thesampleperiodoftheestimationsforbothmodels

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goesuptothesecondquarte7rof2022.

inflation

underlying

Indicatorsof

Indicatorsofunderlyinginflation

(annualpercentagechanges)

HICP

HICPexcludingenergyandfood(HICPX)

HICPexcludingenergy,food,travel-relateditemsandclothing(HICPXX)

PCCI(persistentandcommoncomponentofinflation)

PCCIexcludingenergy

Supercore

Domesticinflation

Trimmedmean(10%)

Trimmedmean(30%)

SurveyofMonetaryAnalysts(SMA)

HICP(March2023MPE)

Market-basedindicatorsofinflationcompensation

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2022202320242025

HICPXinflation

(annualpercentagechanges)

HICPX

HICPXenergy-sensitiveServices

HICPXwage-sensitive

HICPXnotenergy-sensitiveNegotiatedwages

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Mar-23

Sources:Eurostat,Refinitiv,ECBSurveyofProfessionalForecasters(SPF),March2023ECBstaffmacroeconomicprojectionsandECBcalculations.

Notes:TheSMAandtheMarch2023ECBstaffmacroeconomicprojectionsshowquarterlyforecasts.Thecut-offdatefordataincludedintheECBstaffmacroeconomicprojectionswas1March.

Latestobservations:March2023(flash)forHICPandHICPXandFebruary2023fortherest.Thelatestobservationformarket-basedindicatorsofinflationcompensationis31March2023.

8

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:HICPXwage-sensitiveitemsareanexperimentalcompositemeasurebasedonitemswithashareofwagesindirectcostsabove40%.Theenergy-sensitivecomponentisbasedonitemswithashareofenergyintotal(directandindirect)costsabovetheaverageenergyshareacrossNEIGandservicesitems.

Latestobservations:2022Q4fornegotiatedwages,March2023(flash)forHICPXandservicesandFebruary2023fortherest.

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Total

Agriculture

MiningandutilitiesManufacturing

Construction

Trade,transp.,accom.,foodInformationandcommunication

Financeandinsurance

Realestate

ProfessionalandtechnicalPublicadministration

Arts,entertain.,others

Sectoralwageandprofitdevelopments

Sectoralwageandprofitdevelopments

(percentagechangesovertheindicatedperiod)

Sectoralunitprofitsandunitlabourcosts

(percentagechangesovertheindicatedperiod)

WagesProfits

2019Q4-2022Q12022Q1-2022Q4

-2502550-2502550

UnitprofitsUnitlabourcosts

Total

Agriculture

Energyandutilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Totalservices

Contact-intensiveservices

2019Q4-2022Q1

-10010203040

2022Q1-2022Q4

-10010203040

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:Wagesrefertocompensationofemployees,profitstogrossoperatingsurplus.Wagesincludeincomefortheself-employed.Intheleftpanelthevalueforminingandutilitiesis

54.3%andforarts,entertainmentandothersitis-29.4%.

Thelatestobservationisforthefourthquarterof2022.

9

Sources:EurostatandECBstaffcalculations.

Notes:Unitprofitscorrespondtogrossoperatingsurplusoverrealvalueadded.Contact-

intensiveservicesincludetrade,transport,accommodationandfoodandarts,

entertainment,recreationandotherservices.

Thelatestobservationisforthefourthquarterof2022.

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March2023MPE:Nominalwages,realwagesandunitlabourcosts

6

4

2

0

Nominalwages

(annualpercentagechanges)

Realwages

(Index2019=100;deflatedbyHICP)

Unitlabourcosts

(annualpercentagechanges)

Compensationperemployee(March2023MPE)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2024

2025

2023

Realcompensationperemployee(March2023MPE)

101

100

100

99

99

98

98

97

2024

2025

2023

Unitlabourcosts(March2023MPE)

2025

2024

2023

Sources:March2023ECBstaffmacroeconomicprojections,EurostatandECBcalculations.

ThelatestobservationsareforQ42022.

10

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Wageoutlook

Forward-lookingwagetrackers

(annualpercentagechanges)

Sources:CalculationsbasedonmicrodataonwageagreementsprovidedbyDeutscheBundesbank,BancodeEspa?a,the

Dutchemployers’association(AWVN),OesterreichischeNationalbank,BankofGreece,Bancad’ItaliaandBanquedeFrance.

DataforFrancearebasedonanupdatedversionofGautier,E.(2022):

Negotiatedwagerisesfor2022:theresultssofar

.

Note:EuroareaaggregatebasedonES,IT,GR,AT,DE,NL,FRasofMarch2023.

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Unemployment,employmentandlabourforce

Unemploymentandjobvacancyrates

(percentagesofthelabourforce;percentagesofjobs)

Unemploymentrate

Jobvacancyrate(rhs)

Indeedvacancyrate(rhs)

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23

Sources:Eurostat,IndeedandECBcalculations.

Note:Theindeedrateiscomputedasjobpostingsoverjobpostingsplusimpliedmonthlyemployment.

ThelatestobservationsareforFebruary2023forunemployment,Q42022forJobvacancyrate,March2023forIndeedvacancyrate.

GDP,employmentandhoursworked

(index:2019Q4=100;diffusionindex)

104

102

100

98

GDP

Employment

Totalhours

PMIemployment(rhs)

56

54

52

50

Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23

Sources:Eurostat,S&PGlobalandECBcalculations.

ThelatestobservationsareforQ42022andforMarch2023forPMI.

12

Labourforce

(millions)

168

167

166

165

164

LabourforceTrend

Jan-22Jun-22Nov-22Feb-23

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Note:ThelineartrendiscomputedfortheperiodJanuary2005andDecember2019.

ThelatestobservationisforFebruary2023.

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Inflationexpectations

Inflationpathimpliedbymarket-based

inflationcompensationandstaffprojections

(percentagesperannum)

y-o-yHICPinflation

MarchMPEforecast

—Inflationcompensationrates(latest)

—Inflationcompensationrates(pre-FebruaryGovC)

—Changeininflationcompensationratessincepre-FebruaryGovC

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

20222023202420252026

80

0

-80

20222023202420252026

Sources:Bloomberg,RefinitivandECBcalculations.

Notes:Thecoloureddiamondsrefertoforwardinflation-linkedswap(ILS)ratesthatextendtheequallycolouredlineofinflationfixings.Premia-adjustedforwardILSratesareaverageestimatesfromtwoaffinetermstructuremodelsasinJoslin,SingletonandZhu(2011)appliedtoILSratesadjustedfortheindexationlag,withthelong-runmeancalibratedto1.9%untiltheendofApril2021andto2%thereafter;seeBurbanetal.(2021),EconomicBulletin,Issue8,ECB,Box4.ThegreyareareferstotheprojectionhorizonendinginDecember2025.

Thelatestobservationsarefor31March2023forinflationcompensationratesand15February2023forMarchMPE.13

ECBCES:inflationperceptionsand

expectations

(annualpercentagechanges)

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

—Perceptionofpastinflation,median/mean

—Inflationexpectationsoneyearahead,median/mean—Inflationexpectationsthreeyearsahead,median/meanHeadlineHICP

Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Mar-23

Sources:ECBConsumerExpectationsSurvey(CES)andEurostat

Note:Solid/dashedlinesrepresentthemedian/mean.

ThelatestobservationisforMarch2023(flash)forheadlineHICP,February2023fortheECBCES.

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Euroarearisk-freerates

€STRforwardcurveandsurvey

expectationsforthedepositfacilityrate

(percentagesperannum)

Realised€STR

€STRforwardcurve(pre-FebruaryGovC)

€STRforwardcurve(pre-SVBcollapse-9March2023)€STRforwardcurve(latest)

SMAmedian(March2023)

SMA25th-75thpercentiles

4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5

-1.0

2022202320242025

Sources:RefinitivandECBcalculations.

Notes:Thebarsdepictthemedianofresponsesinthe2MarchSMAsurveyonexpectationsoffuturedepositfacilityrates.Surveysareadjustedforan€STRvsDFRspread.

Thelatestobservationis31March2023.

14

Expectedrealrategappath

(percentagesperannum)

Contemporaneousrategap(IQR,March2023SMA)

Prospectiverategap(IQR,March2023SMA)

Contemporaneousrategap(median,March2023SMA)Contemporaneousrategap(median,February2023SMA)

Prospectiverategap(median,March2023SMA)

Prospectiverategap(median,February2023SMA)

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

2023202420252026

Sources:SMA,Refinitiv,BloombergandECBcalculations.

Notes:ThecontemporaneousrategapiscomputedasthedifferencebetweenthecurrentperiodDFRandonequarteraheady-o-yinflation.TheprospectiverategapisthedifferencebetweentheDFRexpectations

forthecurrentandthreefollowingperiodsandtheexpectationsforoneyearaheady-o-yinflation.Thelatestobservationsarefor2March2023forSMA.

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Bankfundingconditions

Policyanddepositrates

(percentagesperannum)

Bankfundingcosts

(percentagesperannum)

ECBrelevantpolicyrateTimedepositsOvernightdeposits

Firms

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

1999200220052008

4

3

2

1

0

-1

Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23

Households

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

1999200220052008

4

3

2

1

0

-1

Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23

Sources:ECB(MFIInterestRateStatistics(MIR),financialmarketdata(FM))andECBcalculations.

Notes:TheECBrelevantpolicyrateistheMROuptoMay2014andtheDFRthereafter.Timedepositsaredepositswithagreedmaturityofupto2years.

ThelatestobservationsareforMarch2023fortheECBrelevantpolicyrateandFebruary2023forovernightandtimedeposits.

Compositefundingcost

Depositratestohouseholds

Depositratestofirms

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

Bankbondyields

2011201320152017201920212023

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23

Sources:ECB(BalanceSheetItems(BSI),MIR),IHSMarkitiBoxxandECBcalculations.

Notes:Dailybankbondyields.Monthlydepositratesonnewbusinessvolumesweightedbyoutstandingamounts.Compositefundingcost,calculatedasaweightedaverageofthecostofdepositsandmarketdebtfunding,withtherespectiveoutstandingamountsonbankbalancesheetsusedasweights.

yields;February2023forBSIand

15

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Thelatestobservationsarefor31March2023forbond

MIR.

Lendingtofirms

Costofdebtfinancingandcreditstandardsforfirms

(leftpanel:percentagesperannum,rightpanel:percentage

balances)

NominalcostofdebtfinancingCostofmarket-baseddebt

Costofbankborrowing

BLScreditstandardsforloanstofirms

OIS2Y

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

20062010201420182022

Q4Q4Q4Q4Q4

Sources:ECB(MIR,QuarterlySectorAccounts(QSA),BankLendingSurvey(BLS)),MerrillLynch,RefinitivandECBcalculations.

Thelatestobservationsareforthefourthquarterof2022forBLScreditstandardsforloanstofirms,February2023forthenominalcostofdebtfinancingandbankborrowingand31March2023forthecostofmarket-baseddebtandOIS.

16

Totaldebtfinancingofeuroareafirmsand

loangrowthbycountry

(leftpanel:monthlyaverageflowsovertheperiodinEURbillions,

rightpanel:annualpercentagechanges)

NetissuanceofdebtsecuritiesEADE

Totaldebtfinancing

BorrowingfrombanksFR

60

40

20

0

-20

222222OctNovDecJanFebQ1Q2Q32222222323

15

10

5

0

-5

Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23

Sources:ECB(BSI,CSDB-DerivedSecuritiesIssuesStatistics(CSEC)andECBcalculations.

Notes:TotaldebtfinancingisthesumofMFIloansandnetissuanceofdebtsecurities.MFIloansareadjustedforsales,securitisationandcashpoolingactivities.Theseasonaladjustmentofdebtsecuritiesisnotofficial.

ThelatestobservationisforFebruary2023.

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Lendingtohouseholds

Costofborrowingforhouseholdsfor

housepurchase

(percentagesperannum)

DE

ES

FR

IT

EA

0.8

4

Standarddeviation(rightside)

30.6

20.4

10.2

00.0

20162017201820192020202120222023

Sources:ECB(MIR)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Thecross-countrystandarddeviationiscalculatedusingafixedsampleof12euroareacountries.

ThelatestobservationisforFebruary2023.

17

Loanstohouseholdsbypurpose

(annualpercentagechanges)

Totalloanstohouseholds

Loansforhousepurchase

Creditforconsumption

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

20162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ECB(BSI).

Notes:MFIloansareadjustedforsalesandsecuritisation.UptoJanuary2022,theadjustmentforsalesandsecuritisationinloansbypurposeisnotfullyharmonisedacrosscountries.SinceFebruary2022,itisbasedondatacollectedunderthecurrentBSI

RegulationbutnotyetpublishedontheECBwebsite.

ThelatestobservationisforFebruary2023.

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IT●

AT

LU

.

EA

NL

PT

CY●

IE●

GR

.

ES

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

.

MT

SK

BE

FR

SI

DE

FI

Transmissiontohouseholds

Variableandfixedratemortgages:

spreadsandchangesinshares

(x-axis:averagespreadbetweenvariableandfixedmortgageratesinpercentagesperannum;y-axis:changeintheshareofvariablemortgagessinceDecember2021inpercentagepoints)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-100-50050100

Sources:ECB(MIR)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Sharesrefertonewbusinesslending.Thex-axisshowstheaveragespreadcalculatedasthedifferencebetweenvariableandfixedmortgageratesfromDecember2021toFebruary2023.

ThelatestobservationisforFebruary2023.

18

Householdtimedepositrates:stateoftransmissioninFebruary2023

(percentagesperannum)

Actualseries-Conditionalforecastedrates

EADEFRITESNLBEATFIPTIE

So