房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂的后果分析

房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂的后果分析摘要：房地產(chǎn)泡沫的破裂首先對(duì)銀行產(chǎn)生宏大的危害，通過(guò)對(duì)包括香港在內(nèi)的22個(gè)工業(yè)化國(guó)家和地產(chǎn)的住房市場(chǎng)及股市的熱潮和衰落的研究，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)住房?jī)r(jià)格下跌更可能使銀行受到打擊，原因是在多數(shù)國(guó)家，銀行主導(dǎo)著購(gòu)房貸款業(yè)務(wù)。但是房地產(chǎn)泡沫所帶來(lái)的災(zāi)難遠(yuǎn)不止停留在銀行的層面上。關(guān)鍵詞：房地產(chǎn)泡沫；泡沫破裂；經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)；政治危機(jī)；社會(huì)危機(jī)一、房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂誘發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)(一)消費(fèi)萎縮(二)消費(fèi)銳減(三)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降二、房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂還可能引發(fā)政治和社會(huì)危機(jī)香港房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅亦同樣令百業(yè)蕭條，失業(yè)率上升，但香港的經(jīng)濟(jì)根底較堅(jiān)穩(wěn)，社會(huì)福利保障亦較其它東南亞國(guó)家完善，盡管民怨日深，但始終沒(méi)有造成太大的社會(huì)動(dòng)亂。在圖4為由1997年4月至2022年3月香港私人住宅售價(jià)指數(shù)與特首董建華的支特度走趨比較，不難發(fā)現(xiàn)董建華自出任特首開(kāi)始，支特度一直下跌，與樓價(jià)走勢(shì)相似，但波動(dòng)幅度較細(xì)，支特度長(zhǎng)期在50以下，而2022年7月期間更一度跌至40以下。圖5為香港私人住宅售價(jià)指數(shù)與特首董建華的支特度的相關(guān)度分析，我們可以見(jiàn)到在樓價(jià)由55至95之區(qū)間，正相關(guān)度較高，高于或低于此區(qū)間，相關(guān)度較低，反映民意認(rèn)為某些環(huán)境不是特區(qū)政府或董建華所能控制的，例如亞洲金融風(fēng)暴或非典疫情令房?jī)r(jià)下跌，說(shuō)明香港民意是有理智的。三、總結(jié)readers.TraumatizedbytherapeofSetheandthema-ternalviolation,Hallegraduallyloseshismind.Hisselfhoodshatters.Hesmearedthatbutteronhisface,Sethethinks,becausethemilktheytookfromherisonhismindeventually.Thoseplexfactorsdrivehiminmentaldisorderasmostmadpeopledo.Even,hedisappearsfromthemunityforpermanentes-capefromthetrauma,themortalruinratherthanper-manentsafety.PassivevictimsSurvivingvictimsPaulDisoneoftheenslavedinSweetHome,whereSetheandHalleisenslaved.UnlikeSetheboundingherselfin124afterallhardships,heexpe-riencesmore,bedwithallhardshipsandarduousself-reorganization.His"tobaccotin"causedbyformertraumaisarousedbyBeloved,wholiterallymanipulateshim,makinghimphysicallyrestlessandforcinghimtosleepwithherintheshedoutsidethehouse.ThoughPaulD'shatredforBelovedneverceases,theirstrange,dreamlikesexualencountersopenthelidofhis"tobaccotin"heart,allowinghimtoremember,feel,andloveagain.ThetraumaticawakingplaysaroleagainwhenhetemporarilyretreatsafterlearningSethemurderingherchild."Hemustworkoutofaconditionofpsychicfragmentation——hisselfhoodhasbeenseverelyimpaired,hisstatusasahumansubjectdeniedbytheslaveculture".WhenhedecidestoreturnstoSetheandherfearful,murderouslove,hetriestoreconstructfuture.HehasthecapacitytoleadSetheoutofhernarcissis-ticisolationandintorelationshipwiththeexternalworld."Heisabletosalvageoutofthewreckagebol-steringfaithinbothselfandother.HetriestopassthisfaithontoSetheattheend."Hisfingersholdinghers,hetoldSethethatSetheherselfwasherbestthinginsteadofBeloved.Hisfaithindicatestheinitia-tivesofdealingwithtrauma.Hesuccessfullydoesit,andsodoesSetheashewishes.ThescenebetweenthemattheendesclosesttothestateofmutualrecognitionandattunementbyPaulD'slastrescue.Hisstrugglewitnessesthevictoryofbeatingthetrau-mabequeathedbyslaveryBesidesPaulD,Denverisanothercharacterofhealingthetraumaandachievingmaturityaftersuffer-ing.Thougheighteenyearsold,sheactsmuchyounger,maintaininganintensefearoftheworldout-side124andaperilouslyfragilesenseofself.Feelinglonelyandexiled,herself-hooddevelopswiththegrowingofhersenseofself.Belovedisbinationofpre-Oedipalplex,achild'searly(non-sexual)fixationonthemotherpri-ortothechild'sentranceintotheOedipalplexi-dentifiedbyFreudandmaternalhatred,whichseemverycontradictory.Attheverybeginning,BelovedandDenverloveeachotherlikeaunion.WhenthetruththatBelovedistheghostofDenver'sdeadsisterisrevealed,theydenieseachotherfortheirdesireforthesamemother.Thesenseofenvyisalsopre-Oedipalplex.Underthecircumstance,sister-hoodgiveswaytomother-hood.Paradoxically,Beloved'sdesireformotherisvengefulduetohertraumaofbeingkilledbyherownmother.ShemakeseffortstotorturesSethementallyaspossibleasshecan.TheinteractionbetweenBelovedandSetheistenseandvulnerableliketheenduranceofachord.OnceSethereciprocatesBeloved'sviolentpassionforher,thetwobeelockedinadestruc-tive,exclusive,parasiticrelationship.Sometimes,Belovedbeesextremelymalevo-lent.ThesceneinwhichshealmoststranglesSethe,anactthatmirrorsthewayhermotherpreviouslysawedthroughherthroat,suggestsherextremehatredonSethe.Herrevengeispracticedbyherviolenceandviciousness:sheseduceshermother'slover(PaulD)andattacksSethe'sdog,herhouse,andSetheherself.Becausemotheranddaughterhavebeeindistin-guishablebyherwretcheddemands,inwhichSethebeesemaciatedwhileshebeesfat,herattackonSetheiseffectivelyaformofself-destructionatthesametimesheruinsSethefiercely.Bytheway,herresentmentwillbeeasedlittle.Hervengefuldesireissopoignantthatthatallareruinedwon'tsatisfyher.Sheisacursedghost,whoisnotonlycursedbutalsocursesthewhole.124isherconsiderableplace,whereeverythingisarrangedforherresentment.Hertraumaseemsincurablebecauseitisfrequentlydepositedandincreasedforeverlikeinanition.MorefortunatethanBeloved,Setheisstillcur-ablealthoughsheisalmostruinedbythehardshipsofslavery.Whatsheexperiencesisthepurgatorialsuffer-ing,themostseverepaininlife.Inthehardshipsofslavery,unwillingtorelin-quishherchildrentothephysical,emotional,andspir-itualtraumashehasenduredasaslave,shesuccess-fullymurdersoneofherchildren,whichsheconsidersasanactofmother'sloveandprotection.Actually,thedeedistheextremeofmother'sdevotiontoherbaby,whichsherepeatsandemphasizesforseveraltimesinfrontofothers.Herextremeisoneoftenden-cypeoplearelikelytohavewhentheyareintheposi-tionofpossessionandlosing.Sheconsidersherbabyasonepartofherself,thebeautifulpart,whichshehasrighttodispose.Inthehardesttime,thetimeofdespair,shedesperatelydecidesthebaby'sdestina-tionbymurderinghercruelly.Theextremecrueltylingersonhermindasatraumainherlatterlifeaftertheendoftheslavery.Afterwards,Sethe'sbehaviorbeespurgatorial.Sheenclosesherselfin124,whereshecanregretforhercrueltyofmurderingherbaby.Sheisunabletotellanyoneaboutherpastandsheistotallyenslavedbyit.Sheisbrokendownandalsocuredwhenshebe-eshysteriainstrugglewithhertrauma,whichisunintentionallytreatedwhilesheisforcedbyBelovedtorecalltheunendurablepast——storiesaboutherownfeelingsofabandonmentbyhermother,abouttheharshestindignitiesshesufferedatSweetHome,andabouthermotivationsformurderingherdaughter.Herhysteriaisconfirmedbyheractionsintheexorcismscene,wheresheattackstheliberalwhiteman,Ed-wardBodwin.FreudandBreuerproposedthathysteri-calsymptomsdisappearwhenthememoryofthedis-turbingeventthatfirstprovokedsymptomsisrecalledandtheaffectoftraumaisaroused.Cureesthroughthereproductionoftheprimalsceneoftrau-ma,whichcreatesanopportunityforrevisionofthepsychiceventsthatcausetheprimaltrauma.SethetryingtokillBodwinsymbolicallyconsti-tutesarestagingofhertrauma:thedeathofherdaughter.BodwinapproachesthehousetocollectDen-verforworkinthesamewaythatschoolteacherap-proachedtorecapturehisslaves.Butthistime,Sethechoosesadifferentcourseofaction.Insteadoftryingtoprotectherchildrenbykillingthem,shefliesatBodwinwithanicepick.Forthefirsttime,herprotestisdirectedoutwardtowardthesourceofoppression,representedbyBodwin(whostandsforschoolteacher),ratherthantakingtheformofself-destructionofmur-deringherownchildrenlasttime.AtthatmomentBeloveddisappears.Sheisalsoreleasedandsavedbymother'shysteriaandherdesperateresponsetothesametrauma,whichthemotherandthedaughtershareforsolong.OnlywhenSethelearnstoconfrontthepasthead-on,toassertherselfinitspresence,canshelib-eratesherselffromitsoppressivepowerandbegintolivefreely,peacefully,andresponsiblyinthepresent.Aftertheclimax,SetheisextremelyexhaustedwhilePaulDeventuallyreturnstothehouse.Whensheliesinbed,PaulDgivesherhope,gentlytouchingherface:"Meandyou,wegotmoreyesterdaythanany-body…Weneedsomekindoftomorrow.""'Youyourbestthing,Sethe.Youare.'Hisholdingfingersareholdinghers.'Me?Me?"AlthoughSetheisunsureaboutherself,shebeginstorecognizethatsheherselfmaybethecenterofherlife,ratherthanthepassingbabyorthepastgoneby.Sheisforgiv