國際貿(mào)易理論與實務(wù)（英文）

1、International Trade Theory and PolicySchool of Economics, Yunnan UniversityZhang Jianhua and Zhang Lin1Chap. 1 IntroductionOne. Course OutlineBasic theory in Economics ( Analysis of commodity and factor mobility in open Macro economy by tools MicroeconomicsContents:Pure Theory in International Trade

2、 ( Reason and Influence of International Trade) Policy of International Trade （Policies aiming at limiting imports while encouraging exports）Institutions for International Trade（WTO Institutions ）2Two Basic Concepts balance of tradeTrade Surplus（ExportsImports，F(xiàn)avorable Balance of Trade）Trade Defici

3、t （ExportsImports，Unfavorable Balance of Trade）Trade Balance （Exports Imports）Trade StructureCommodity StructureGeographical StructureDependency of Trade2004、2005年中國的貿(mào)易收支2004年中國對外貿(mào)易依存度接近70%2005年中國主要進(jìn)出口商品3Chap. 3 Comparative Cost and Classical Trade TheoremIn this chapter, we introduce theorem of int

4、ernational trade. We start such introduction looking at causes of international trade and its influences in the economy ( in Chap 3, 4, 5 and 6), then we will analyze the influences of economics in trade. One, Theory of Absolute CostTheory of absolute costIt is a theoretical explanation to the cause

5、 of international tradeIntroduced by Adam Smith in his “ Wealth of Nations”4Graph of Absolute CostUnit Cost Calculated in terms of labor UK PortugalCarpetWine4863Each country produces goods absolutely low in cost, in exchange for other countries goods absolutely low in costTrade based on division of

6、 laborReason of trade is because of differences in absolute costCould countries have trade without absolute differences in cost?5Chap 3. 2. Comparative CostDavid Ricardo，1817Background谷物法Cultivation of wheat expands, land of grass shrinks, and price of wool goes up小麥價格上漲Labor is more expansiveFood e

7、xpend increases, end goods expend decreasesRevenge from other countries, export of end products decrease損害了資產(chǎn)階級的利益要求自由貿(mào)易6Case of Ricardian ModelUnit Cost Calculated in terms of labor Britain PortugalCarpetWine48610Assumptions：Two nations, two products, one factor, fixed productivity, sufficient empl

8、oyment, perfect competition, non-mobility of factor, barter, no technological improvement, no transportation costThe absolute costs of both products in Britain is lower than that in Portugal, why is there still trade between these two countries7A necessary condition of international trade: Comparati

9、ve cost difference兩利相權(quán)取其重，兩弊相權(quán)取其輕A sufficient condition of international trade: international exchange rate is between domestic exchange rates in both countries.There is benefit from tradeLimitation：Why there is comparative cost？8Chap3. 3. Classical trade model based on comparative costUsed to expla

10、in：Reasons and influences of trade ( Price, Production, Consumption and Welfare. 1, Analysis Tools1) Production Possibility CurveThe maximum production when factors are fully employed. A（0，100）B（100，0）OXYC（X1，Y1）9Property of Production Possibility CurveSlope of PPC is equal to marginal opportunity c

11、ostAB5434OXYThe cost of giving up one benefit for getting anotherMaximum cost may not be optimum production. We have to introduce indifference curve in order to get optimum production.102, Indifference CurveThe different products combination that can bring same satisfaction to consumers.OXYA（10，40）B

12、（25，15）UA=UBProperty of Indifference Curve:There are many indifference curveFurther from origin means more utility levelNever cross with each otherConcaveNegative Slope11The combination of PPC and Indifference Curve: Equilibrium( Optimum ) Production and ConsumptionOXYEACBU0U2U1ineffectiveImpossible

13、Maximum production, but utility less than EEquilibrium point：Maximum production, maximum utility123, Exchange Rate ( Comparative price and Trade conditionOYXABCDE1X = 1Y1X = 2Y3X = 3Y The exchange rate is equal to the slope of the line The key of exchange rate line is its slope, not the position. Fo

14、r example, AB and DE is in different position but has same slope13二、貿(mào)易前均衡開展國際貿(mào)易前，一國國內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)狀況YXOBAT生產(chǎn)可能性曲線邊際機(jī)會成本為1X = 1Y交換比率線交換比率為1X = 2YX產(chǎn)量擴(kuò)大X價格下跌，比如：1X = 1.5Y國內(nèi)均衡時，生產(chǎn)可能性曲線與交換比率線重合，實現(xiàn)完全專業(yè)化生產(chǎn)14根據(jù)生產(chǎn)可能性曲線的斜率判斷一國的比較優(yōu)勢YXOBAYXOB1A1A國B國1X = 1Y相對于B國而言，X成本更低1X = 3Y相對于A國而言，X成本更高，Y成本更低15Three, Classical Trade

15、 Model ( One Factor )YXOABYXOCDTT1X = 1Y1X = 3YPrice of X falls in international market, and Price of Y also falls, finally reaches an equilibrium price, say, T(1X=2Y)National ANational B16Influence of International TradeYXOABYXOCDTTEJU0U1U0U1FMPrice: X ( more comparative advantage ) raisedProductio

16、n：Production of X expanded ( Perfect specialization )Consumption: consumption combination is in higher-position indifference curve, better trade offX in Nation A: Production OB, Consumption OX0, Surplus X0B( Export )Y in Nation A:Production: 0, Consumption OY0 ( imports)X0Y0X in nation B Production

17、0, consumption OX1( Imports) Y in nation Production OC, Consumption OY1, surplus Y1CX1Y117Chap. 4, Mutual Demands TheoryUsed to explain how exchange rate is fixed, and how it varies.One, Terms of TradeT=PXPMPrice Index of exportsPrice Index of ImportsT：Improvement of trade condition: each unit of ex

18、port can exchange for more importsT：Deterioration of trade condition: each unit of export exchanges for less imports18Changes in Terms of TradeYXOT0T1T2T3X0Y0Y1Y2Y3Improvement of Trade Condition in AYXOT3T2T1T0Y0X0X1X2X3Improvement of Trade Condition in B19Offer CurveOXXYT0T1T2U0U1U2CABEFGLMNX0X1X2Y

19、0Y1Y2T0：Export LA（= OX0），Import EL（= OY0）T1： Ex MB（= OX1），Im FM（= OY1）T2： EX NC（= OX2），Im GN（= OY2）T2T1T0Offer CurveEach point along offer curve means the equilibrium import and export in certain exchange rate20General Equilibrium in International TradeOXYABTT1A1X0X1Y0Y1Equilibrium international exc

20、hange rateImprovement of trade condition for （That of B fixed）Offer Curve of A moves leftExports decrease greatly, but exchanged imports stay unchanged21Chap 5, Factor EndowmentUsed to solve problems left behind by Ricardo: Reasons for comparative cost differencePut forward by Swedish Economists Hec

21、kscher and Ohiler, so it is also call the Heckscher-Ohlin model, or H-O model, also known as factor endowment theory. It offers good explaining to international trade, so still works as main stream theory in international trade.22Chap5. 1. Heckscher-Ohlin ModelOne, Assumptions1. Two nations, two pro

22、ducts, two factors ( L and K ), 2 22 model. 2. Fixed Endowment, free mobility of factor domestically, non-mobility internationally.3.Same technical level between two nations ( Same production function, same endowment for same products in two nations)Two, NotionsFactor intensityFactor abundance23三、 H

23、eckscher-Ohlin TheoremEach country exports the good intensive in the countrys abundant factor, and imports the good intensive in the countrys scarce factor.兩國要素稟賦不同，導(dǎo)致兩國要素價格不同要素價格差異導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)成本差異生產(chǎn)成本差異導(dǎo)致同種產(chǎn)品在兩國的價格差異同種產(chǎn)品在不同國家價格的差異導(dǎo)致國際貿(mào)易發(fā)生兩國要素密集度和要素豐裕度的差異形成了不同產(chǎn)品的比較優(yōu)勢24Trade influence and benefitsProduction

24、Possibility curve in case of two factorsYXOTUEDue to diminishing substitution of factors, marginal opportunity cost will increase, thus production possibility curve is concave.Its slope is the opportunity cost in point E. Equilibrium in E means marginal opportunity cost in E. Domestic equilibrium is

25、 equal to domestic price ratio.equilibriumX0Y025Trade influences : 1) priceYXOEDomestic equilibrium pre trade. T is domestic exchange rateTT1After trade, the country export X, and its domestic supply of X decreases, and price X rises. TT1A26Trade Influences 2) productionYXOETT1SX0Y0X1Y1Since the int

26、ernational price of X is higher than that of domestic, production of X will increase, therefore, production of Y must decrease. Production combination will move to S.Since in S, the international exchange rate is equal to domestic marginal opportunity cost, the countrys production of X will not incr

27、ease. With the increase of marginal opportunity cost, there will not be perfect specialization.A27Trade Influences 3) ConsumptionYXOETT1SAU0U1CAfter trade, consumers in the nation will be able to consume at international price T1, as budget constraint moves to U1, consumption combination moves to C.

28、 U1 is higher than U0, so consumers are better off. 28EquilibriumYXOETT1SU0U1CX1X2Y1Y2X：OX1-OX2=X2X1：ExY：OY1-OY2=Y1Y2：Im29Benefit from TradeTrade makes a nations consumers better off, but have different influences to producers.Export ProducersDXSXQXPXOEQ0P0HGFP1ExHEP0：The export producers surplus pr

29、e tradeHGP1：The export producers surplus after trade. Difference：P1GEP0Trade will benefit export producers. 30Influence to import competitive producersDYSYQYPYOEP0P1FHImKP1FK：Producers surplus after tradeP0EK：Producers surplus before tradeDifference：P0EFP1Trade will harm the import competitive produ

30、cers 31Chap. 5. 2. An empirical study of H-O model1, Leontif ParadoxAccording to the statistical analysis of Leontif, he found out that U.S.A., which is a capital abundant country, imports more captial-intensive products, while exports more labor intensive goods. This is a paradox to H-O model. 2, E

31、xplain the ParadoxInverse of resource intensityTrade barriersHuman resourceNatural ResourcesH-O模型并沒有錯32Chap5.3., Expansion of H-O modelInternational trade affects price production and consumption, but will it also affect the factor payoff and price? Basing on H-O model, we solve problems of trade to

32、 income distribution. Stolper-Samuelson TheoremFactor Payoff= Price（P）Marginal products of factors（MP）Value of marginal products （VMP）W = PMPLR = PMPK33Short term: Factor non-mobilityBecause of non-mobility, trade will only affect price出口產(chǎn)品（X）價格上漲W = PXMPLW increasesR = PXMPKRincreasesAll export pro

33、ducers payoffs increase進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品（Y）價格下跌W = PYMPLW DecreasesR = PYMPKRDecreasesAll import producers payoffs decrease34Long term: Because factors are mobile, trade not only affects price, but also the marginal products.勞動密集行的出口行業(yè)報酬提高資本密集型的進(jìn)口競爭行業(yè)的要素向出口行業(yè)流動進(jìn)口競爭行業(yè)流出的資本比勞動多出口行業(yè)需要的勞動比資本多資本相對過剩，價格降低勞動相對稀缺，價格提高各行

34、業(yè)投入更多資本，資本/勞動比率提高勞動生產(chǎn)率提高，資本生產(chǎn)率下降勞動的邊際產(chǎn)品增加，資本的邊際產(chǎn)品減少35Continue出口行業(yè)W = PXMPLPX上漲，MPL增加W提高R = PXMPKPX上漲，MPK減少R？進(jìn)口競爭行業(yè)W = PYMPLPY下跌，MPL增加W？R = PYMPKPY下跌，MPK減少R下降Payoff of the factor intensively used by exporters will increasePayoff of the factor intensively used by importers will decrease36ContinueLabor

35、 market is in equilibrium before tradeWX = WY，RX = RYFactor market will also form equilibrium after tradeWX increases，WY also increases；RX decreases，RY also decreasesIn long term, after trade, Payoff of the factor intensively used by exporters will increase, and Payoff of the factor intensively used

36、 by importers will decrease, this is try in any industry. 37Factor price equalization theoryExplains the influence of trade among countries to the factor price in two countries. A國貿(mào)易前W低R高貿(mào)易后W提高R降低B國貿(mào)易前W高R低貿(mào)易后W降低R提高均等38Chap 6, New Trade TheoryChanges in international TradeIncrease of Intra-industry T

37、radeDevelopment of trade within developed countriesTrade between goods with similar or same endowmentsH-O cannot explainAmendments of assumptions of H-O model, develops to new trade theory39General points of new trade theoriesImperfect CompetitionDifferentiated products (Intra-industry trade) Monopo

38、ly power ( price difference) Large Scale EconomyInternal ( enterprises) External ( Industry) 40Intra-industry trade and cross- industry tradeDomestic（Rich in Capital）Foreign（Rich in labor ）productsFoodstuffCross-industry tradeIntra-industry trade41Trade due to external scale economyOne, in case of p

39、erfect competitionQPOD1S1P1AC1MC1P，COqq1Q1Before trade, supply and demand （S1，D1）determine equilibrium price （P1）, the MC and AC are MC1 and AC1. 42QPOD1S1P1AC1MC1P，COqq1Q1S2Enlarge of industry, supply, supply increases to S2AC2AC decreasesMeanwhile, market price falls, and trade happensQ2P2D2MC2For

40、eign demands increase, demand curves movesInternational price stays at P2Output from enterprises stay unchangedReason of trade is because of the price change due to external scale economy43二、 Trade Equilibrium at external Scale of economyXYOProduction curve of increasing return to scale: diminishing

41、 marginal opportunity costETSuppose other conditions are same for two nations, equilibrium point is EUJHU1T1E1Suppose the production scale of two nations change, production combination moves to J and H, trade according to same exchange rate (T1) before tradeT2Trade is due to the price advantage of X

42、 when industry scale is expanded. Suppose X and Y are two products in same industry44Trade due to Internal Scale of Economy: Imperfect competitive marketQOD1MR1MCQ1P1P，CEACSuppose marginal cost stay unchangedDue to scale of economy, average cost falls, enterprises will tradeD2MR2P2AC2Q2Demand curve

43、and marginal income curve move right, but slope is less( more elasticity)Price （P2） in short ter is higher than average cost （AC2）, enterprise have monopoly profitNo monopoly profit45Long term equilibriumQOP，CD2MR2MCQ2AC2P2ACShort term monopoly profitMR3D3Q3P3New firm enterDemand of the products dec

44、reasesExpansion of industry scale lower average cost, and competition eliminates monopoly profit.Scale of economy causes trade, which consequently increase consumer surplus( welfare improves), better specialization46Krugman ModelThree relations Relation of Quantity of producers and Average Cost: The

45、 bigger the quantity of producers, the less a single producers output, and AC is higherRelation of Quantity of producers and price: The more the producers, the more serious the competition, the lower the price. When price is higher than AC( has monopoly profit), other producers will go into the indu

46、stry, while in other cases, when price is lower than AC( monopoly profit is negative), producers will go out of the industry. In graph, relation of quantity of producers and AC is CC curve( in positive relationship),; Relation of Quantity of producers and price is PP curve in the graph ( in negative

47、 relationship). In long term, quantity of producers is determined by the cross of two curves. 47ContinuedNP，CCCPPOEP1AC1N0N1P2AC2N2Monopoly profit exists, new producers go in, N increasesLoss, producers go out, N decreasesEquilibrium均衡48Trade EquilibriumNP，COPPCC1CC2N1N2P1P2E1E2Scale of economy lowe

48、r the AC, has price advantage, exportThe lower AC makes CC curve moves right, new producers go in, N increasesMore competition means lower priceScale of economy causes lower price, bring with trade, improve consumers welfare, make producers specialized, scale of economy expands, and more choices for

49、 consumers. 49Products life cycle model ( technical transfer)tExImOUSA：UKChina：Trade happens due to the technical difference, explains intra-industry trade in different time50Chap 7, Economic growth and international tradeSolve problems of the influence of economic variation to international tradeRe

50、source of growthIncrease of factors and technical improvementsIncrease of GDPResults of growthOXYABA1B151Balanced growth and unbalanced growthBalanced Growth O X Y A B EA1B1E1Same Slope O X Y A BUnbalanced growth C D F Gimport replacing growthexport expansion growth52Economic growth and tradeGrowth

51、and trade of small country IRG O X Y A BTTCDU0U1FGHLMN OX Y A BTU0FGHU1LMNTEEGTrade condition stay unchanged, import and export change in same ratioTrade volume does not affect international exchange rate ( Trade condition )CD53RybcZynski Theorem OX Y BTACDTX1X2Y1Y2The scale of decrease of Xs cost i

52、s larger than that of Y, so production of X will increase till equal to marginal opportunity cost ( slope of T ), output of Y is absolutely lower. 54Growth and trade for Large Country大國增長與貿(mào)易Import replacing growthXOYABDCT0FEGHJKT1U0U1U2T2Welfare improves, HJGF, due to international market price of Y

53、 falls, trade condition improves, the certain amount of the nations products could exchange for more import goods. 55Export expansion growthXOYABT0FEGU0T1KHJU1U2T2Export of X increase for large country, which causes international market price of X falls, trade condition changes. Welfare improves. JK

54、FE, more export products are needed in exchange for a certain amount of import goods, trade condition deteriorates. CD56Immiserizing growthYOXABCDTT1U0U157Chap 8, Protectionism and PoliciesWhen free trade can make two countries better off, why should there be trade protection? One, Policies of the m

55、ercantilism只有金銀才是財富任何國家金銀儲量都是有限的，只有靠出口賺取別國金銀才能增加本國財富同時要限制或禁止本國購買別國商品支出本國金銀限制或禁止進(jìn)口，同時鼓勵出口58Two, Protection theory of ListThere should be different trade policies in different stages of economic development.59Trade protectionism of KeynesianAggregate Demand:C I G XAggregate Supply：C S T M消費(fèi)投資政府支出出口消費(fèi)儲

56、蓄進(jìn)口政府收入Equation of Aggregate Demands Y C I G （XM）Net Export60Trade MultiplierConsumption Function：CCabY自發(fā)消費(fèi)引致消費(fèi)MPC X IncomeYCabYIG（XM）不考慮Ca、I和GYbY（XM）YbY（XM）Y11b（XM）Let11bk，Yk（XM）In order to increase Y, needs to increase (XM), or the exports, and decrease imports, then Y is increased by K times. 61N

57、ew Trade protectionismStrategic Trade policyPrisoners dilemmaABconfessNot confessconfessNot confess5，510，11，100，0Nash equilibrium62Strategic Trade policiesBoingAir busProduceNot produceProduceNot produce5，50，100100，00，0BoingAir busproduceNot ProduceProduceNot Produce5，200，125100，00，0政府可以采取措施幫助本國企業(yè)獲得

58、戰(zhàn)略性優(yōu)勢63Other reasons for trade protectionProtect young industriesProtect industries whose average cost not higher than that of international market price in futureCost should be lower than the income of the industry in future Industry must be free join an exit Promote capital formation and industry

59、multilateral Improve trade conditions and international balance of paymentsIncrease employment and sustain high salaryPromote economic development of developing countries.64Chap 9, Trade management theories and policiesLimited importTariffNon-tariff BarriersQuantity limitationsPrice limitationsPurch

60、ase controlFinancial controlTBTImprove exportExport creditNational Guarantee of export creditExport subsidyDumping65TariffBasic Ideas（P.113116）ERPERPV VVV （Final price of exports +Duty) price of Imported materialV price of foreign end productsforeign material priceUnder a certain nominal tariff rate