Financial-analysis介紹教學(xué)課件

Part3FinancialAnalysisBasicsforModernProjectEvaluationOutlinesProfitabilityAnalysisLiabilityAnalysisSolvencyAnalysis1.ProfitabilityAnalysisTraditionalAppraisalMethod(ARR)DiscountedCashFlowApproach(DCF)NetPresentValue(NPV)InternalRateofReturn(IRR)NetPresentValue(NPV)Itworksonthesimple,butfundamentalprinciplethataninvestmentisworthwhileundertakingifthemoneygotoutoftheinvestmentisgreaterthanthemoneyputin.Thepointisthatthetimevalueofmoneyistakenintoaccountinassessingwhethertheinvestmenthasapositiveornegativenetvalue.NetPresentValueCalculationformulation:NetPresentValueDecisionrule:NPV≥0InterpretationsofapositiveNPV:1.Itisanexcessreturnorameasureofeconomicprofit.2.Itisgeneratingareturnwhichisgreaterthani,thediscountedrateused.3.Ifthemoneywasborrowedatiinterest,theprojectwouldgenerateasufficientcashflowtopaytheinterest,repaytheloanandleaveasurplus.NetPresentValueExercise:某項(xiàng)目建設(shè)期為三年，第一年固定資產(chǎn)投資47703萬元，第二年投資為53747萬元，第三年投資32918萬元。流動資金投資4113萬元，在投產(chǎn)期初全部投完。項(xiàng)目一投產(chǎn)即達(dá)到100%設(shè)計(jì)生產(chǎn)能力，年經(jīng)營成本為14163萬元，銷售收入為36721萬元，銷售稅金及附加為銷售收入的10%。項(xiàng)目的使用壽命為20年，設(shè)備期末殘值為11460萬元。如果該行業(yè)基準(zhǔn)收益率為12%，計(jì)算并判斷該項(xiàng)目在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是否可行。InternalRateofReturnIfaprojecthadapositiveNPVatacertaindiscountrate(say)10%,thismeant,amongstotherthings,thattheproject’sreturnwasactuallygreaterthan10%;WhilstifaprojecthadanegativeNPV,thenthereturnwaslessthanthediscountrate;IfithadazeroNPV,thenthereturnwasequaltothediscountrate.InternalRateofReturnTheIRRofaprojectcanbedefinedastherateofdiscountwhich,whenappliedtotheproject’scashflows,producesazeroNPV.Ingeneral:IRRisthevalue(discountedrate),whichsatisfiestheexpression:InternalRateofReturnEstimatingtheIRRvialinearinterpolationInternalRateofReturnInternalRateofReturnTheIRRdecisionruleOnlytheprojectswithanIRRgreaterthanorequaltosomepredetermined‘cut-off’rateshouldbeacceptable.Usuallythis‘cut-off’rateisthemarketrateofinterest,whichreflectstheopportunitycostofthecapitalinvolved.InternalRateofReturnExercise假設(shè)現(xiàn)在投資5000萬元，預(yù)計(jì)10年中每年可獲利100萬元，在第十年末還可獲利6900萬元，求該投資的內(nèi)部收益率。InternalRateofReturn某工廠擬用5000元購入機(jī)器一臺,計(jì)算期為4年,假定設(shè)備的殘值為零,每年的凈現(xiàn)金流量如下圖,若基準(zhǔn)收益率為8%,試用內(nèi)部收益率指標(biāo)判斷該設(shè)備是否可以購買?5000030001750800330InternalRateofReturnInternalRateofReturn年份0123凈現(xiàn)金流量-100470-720360InternalRateofReturnNPV0i20%50%100%InternalRateofReturn0-100470-120350420-300-720-360360InternalRateofReturn投資項(xiàng)目常規(guī)投資項(xiàng)目非常規(guī)投資項(xiàng)目純投資項(xiàng)目混合投資項(xiàng)目NPV&IRRDevelopedHowaboutthedecisionruleswhenfacedwithmutuallyexclusiveprojectsandotherformsofprojectdecisioninterdependence?NPV&IRRDevelopedTherelationshipbetweeninvestmentprojectsA&BIndependentRelevantMutuallyExclusiveInterlinkedNPV&IRRDeveloped----MutuallyExclusiveProjectsAssumptions1:theexistenceofaperfectcapitalmarket.Noconstraintsfromfinance.Assumptions2:thediscountedrateusedinNPVanalysiscorrectlyreflectsthedegreeofriskinvolvedintheproject.Assumptions3:equalprojectlivesNPV&IRRDevelopedNPV:acceptwhicheveralternativeprojectsthatresultinthegreatestpositiveNPVsinceitwillproducethegreatestadditiontotheshareholders’wealth.NPV&IRRDeveloped----InterlinkedprojectsAproject’scashflowsareaffectedbyinvestmentdecisionundertakenelsewhere.NPV:mutuallyexclusivelyinvestments.Example(i=10%)A=-38.73;B=427.03;C=A+B=511.24ProjectAProjectByearCFPVWithAWithoutACFPVCFPV01234-100040050020050-1000363.64413.20150.2634.15-200050080010001000-2000454.55661.12751.30683.00-20005008001200600-2000454.55661.12901.56409.80NPV-38.73549.97427.03A、B、C、D、E五個項(xiàng)目中，A與B、C與D互斥，C與D從屬于B，E從屬于C。它們的互斥組合為？互斥組合組合內(nèi)的項(xiàng)目ABCDE110000A201000B301100B、C401010B、D501101B、C、ENPV&IRRDevelopedExamples:budgetlimitsto$800NPV&IRRDevelopedBudget:$700NPV&IRRDevelopedHowaboutcomparingprojectswithdifferentlives?NPV&IRRDevelopedPVofCosts(A)=-48,876PVofCosts(B)=-38,9561.LCM—solutionLowestCommonDenominatorNPV&IRRDevelopedPVofCosts(A)=-105.08PVofCosts(B)=-106.67NPV&IRRDeveloped2.AnnualEquivalentCost(Benefit)solution1.PVofCosts(A)=-$48,876PVofCosts(B)=-$38,9562.AEC(A)=PV/Annuityfactor(10%)=$15418AEC(B)=PV/Annuityfactor(10%)=$15645NPV&IRRDevelopedMutuallyExclusiveProjectsIRR:acceptwhicheverprojecthasthegreatestIRR,aslongasitexceedsthedecisioncriterion.???NPV&IRRDevelopedWhenanindividualprojectisevaluatedbyNPV,an“automatic”comparisonismadebetweenthecashflowsproducedbytheprojectandthecashflowsthatwouldhavebeenproducediftheproject’soutlayhadbeeninvestedonthecapitalmarketfortheperiodoftheproject’slife-span.NPV&IRRDevelopedThus,thedecisionwhethertoacceptorrejecttheprojectisnotanabsolutedecision,butarelativeone----relativetowhattheforgonealternativewouldhaveyielded.Asaresult,whenfacedwithmutuallyexclusiveinvestments,thechoicebetweentheprojectsiscarriedoutonthebasisofthisautomaticcomparisonwiththecapitalmarket.Whicheverprojectperformsbest,relativetothecapitalmarket,ischosen,givenitout-performsthecapitalmarketalternatives.NPV&IRRDevelopedWhynotIRR?TheIRRmethodmakesthecomparisononasomewhatdifferentbasisbyusingthedecisionrule:doestheprojectyieldagreaterorlesserreturnthanthecapitalmarket?Indoingso,itdoesnotgiveaconsistentlyreliableindicationofhowmuchbetterorworsetheprojectis,relativetothecapitalmarketinvestmentalternative.Example(10%)ProjectAProjectBProjectB-AyearCFPVCFPVDCFPV01234-1500550600500450-1500500496376307-1900400800800700-1900363.64661.12601.04478.10-400-150-600800700-400-136.36-495.84601.04478.10NPV178.88203.9046.94IRR16%15%12.4%Example(10%)NPV&IRRDevelopedModifieddecisionruleforIRR:CalculatetheIRRsofthetwoprojectsandtheIRRofeitherofthedifferentialcashflows,then:1.IfthedifferentialcashflowIRRisgreaterthanthecut-offrate,and(a)lessthanbothprojectsIRRs,thenaccepttheprojectwithsmallerIRR;(b)greaterthanbothprojectsIRRs,thenaccepttheprojectwithhigherIRR.NPV&IRRDeveloped2.IfthedifferentialcashflowIRRislessthanthecut-offrate,and(a)theIRRsofoneorbothprojectsarehigherthanthecut-offrate,thenaccepttheprojectwithhigherIRR;(b)ifneitherproject’sIRRisgreaterthanthecut-offrate,rejectboth.某投資項(xiàng)目有A、B、C、D四個方案。已知折現(xiàn)率為10％，資金不受限制，試用凈現(xiàn)值法、年等值法和內(nèi)部收益率法進(jìn)行方案比較，請問能發(fā)現(xiàn)什么問題，如何處理？四個方案的基本數(shù)據(jù)如下表所示：方案ABCD初始投資170000260000300000330000年收入114000120000130000147000年費(fèi)用70000710006400079000壽命期10101010TreatmentofInflation----constantprice:atthepriceinforceatthetimeoftheappraisal----currentprice:atthepriceinforcewhentheprojectinputoroutputoccursTreatmentofInflationFortheappraisalpurpose:NoInflationAssumptionConstantPriceTreatmentofInflationNominalvs.RealCashFlowsSomedifficultiesinAppraisalAppraisalbasedonAssumptionsConstantprice&relativepriceTakingriskintoaccount2.LiabilityAnalysisLiabilityreferstoacompany’sabilitytomeetitscontinuingobligationsastheyarise.Itplaysacentralroleforthecreditorstoassesstheamount,timinganduncertaintyoffuturecashflowsfromtheenterprisetothem.2.LiabilityAnalysisDebtRatioCurrentRatioQuickRatio2.LiabilityAnalysisDebtRatioisameasurementofcreditors’long-termriskbydividingtotalliabilitiesbytotalassets.2.LiabilityAnalysisCurrentRatioisameasureofshort-termliability,computedbydividingtotalcurrentassetsbytotalcurrentliabilities.2.LiabilityAnalysis流動資產(chǎn)=應(yīng)收賬款+存貨+現(xiàn)金+累計(jì)盈余資金流動負(fù)債=短期借款+應(yīng)付帳款2.LiabilityAnalysisQuickRatiocomparesquickassetswithcurrentliabilities.2.LiabilityAnalysis某企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)如下，請對其做清償能力的分析。項(xiàng)目總資產(chǎn)為127942萬元，應(yīng)收帳款為2058萬元，存貨為3386萬元，現(xiàn)金198萬元，累計(jì)盈余資金為8106萬元。流動負(fù)債總額1014萬元，全部為應(yīng)付帳款，中長期借款27947萬元。(23%;13.56%;10.22%)3.SolvencyAnalysisTraditionalAppraisalMethod(Payback)DiscountedCashFlowMethod(DiscountedPayback)PaybackforDebtDiscountedPaybackOvercomethecriticism:discountedpaybackHowquicklyaprojecttakestopaybackitsoutlayinpresentvalue.DiscountedPaybackPt’=（累計(jì)財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值出現(xiàn)正值年份）-1+上年累計(jì)財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值的絕對值／當(dāng)年財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值DiscountedPaybackExample:某項(xiàng)目建設(shè)期為二年，第一年年初投資1000萬元，第二年年初投資1500萬元。第三年開始投產(chǎn)，并達(dá)50%的設(shè)計(jì)生產(chǎn)能力。第四年可達(dá)100%的設(shè)計(jì)生產(chǎn)能力。正常年份銷售收入為1000萬元，經(jīng)營成本為200萬元，其中固定成本為150萬元，變動成本為50萬元，銷售稅等支出為銷售收入的10%。求動態(tài)的全部投資回收期(折現(xiàn)率為8%)。DiscountedPayback

P‘t=7-1+165.39/408.44=6.4（年）

DiscountedPayback10%,A:5.03;B:5.21.DiscountedPaybackDiscussionsaboutdiscountedpaybackPaybackforDebtAnalysisThepaybackofdebtreferstothetimeaprojecttakestopaybackitscapitalinvestmentsdebt.PaybackofDebtAnalysisId為固定資產(chǎn)投資借款本息和；

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