項目組合管理

ProjectPortfolioManagement

AnIntroduction

李俊偉

November2002

Beijing項目管理者聯(lián)盟,MYPM.NETContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques2TheEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement1952,ModernPortfolioTheory(MPT),HarryMarkowitz,JournalofFinance,PortfolioSelection1990,HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize,dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981,F.WarrenMcFarian,PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems,HBR,toemployarisk-basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects.1990s,abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998,JohnThorp,TheInformationParadox.Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions.Present,portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagement3PortfolioManagement,theoverallpictureFocus(StrategicPlanning)Source:PMSolutions,PortfolioManagement,DianneBridgesSelect(PortfolioManagement)Manage(ProjectManagement)4ContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques5TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfolio

Don’tputallyoureggsinonebasket.Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetrait

inhumanbeings.6ReturnandRiskinFinancialMarketexpectedreturnstandarddeviation(%)capitalappreciationgrowthofincome06121824303620181614121086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernmentbondslong-termcorporatebondslargecompanystockssmallcompanystocksstabilityofprincipal7TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesTheexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns.8TheRoleofCombiningSecurities10two-securityportfoliorisk=riskA+riskB+interactiveriskThetotalriskofaportfoliocomesfromthevarianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents.9TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesexpectedreturnrisk

betterperformance

Aportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn,orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk.

Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk.10TheEfficientFrontier:OptimumDiversificationofRiskyAssetsexpectedreturnrisk(standarddeviationofreturns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficientfrontierTheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade-offisdescribedastheefficientfrontier11TheEfficientFrontiervsNaiveDiversification

Asportfoliosizeincreases,totalportfoliorisk,onaverage,declines.Afteracertainpoint,however,themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest.totalriskNon-diversifiablerisknumberofsecurities

Naivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis.12RiskReductionwithDiversificationNumberofSecuritiesSt.DeviationMarketRiskUniqueRisk13Marketorsystematicrisk:riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk:risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk=Systematic+UnsystematicComponentsofRisk14Two-SecurityPortfolioswithDifferentCorrelations

=113%%8E(r)St.Dev12%20%

=.3

=-1

=-115Relationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient-1.0<

<+1.0Thesmallerthecorrelation,thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf

=+1.0,noriskreductionispossiblePortfolioRisk/Return,CorrelationEffects16StructuringaPortfolio:AssetAllocationattitudetowardriskneedforreturnrealizedreturnandriskwiththepassageoftimestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividualchoiceassetclassmixinvestmentresults17ContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques18WhatisprojectportfoliomanagementPortfolioManagementistheprojectselectionprocessandinvolvesidentifyingopportunities:assessingtheorganizationalfit;analyzingthecosts,benefits,andrisks;anddevelopingandselectingaportfolio.Theartofprojectportfoliomanagementis:doingtherightthing,selectingtherightmixofprojectsandadjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstancesunfold.19PortfolioManagementis:Defininggoalsandobjectives–clearlyarticulatewhattheportfolioisexpectedtoachieveUnderstanding,accelerating,andmakingtradeoffs–determinehowmuchtoinvestinonethingasopposedtosomethingelseIdentifying,eliminating,minimizing,anddiversifyingrisk–selectamixofinvestmentsthatwillavoidunduerisk,willnotexceedacceptablerisktolerancelevels,andwillspreadrisksacrossprojectsandinitiativestominimizeadverseimpactsMonitoringportfolioperformance–understandtheprogressthattheportfolioismakingtowardtheachievementofthegoalsandobjectivesAchievingadesiredobjective–havetheconfidencethatthedesiredoutcomewilllikelybeachievedgiventheaggregateofinvestmentsthataremade20PortfolioManagementisNotDoingaseriesofproject–specificcalculationsandanalyses,suchasreturnoninvestment,benefit-costanalysis,netpresentvalue,paybackperiod,rateofreturn,andthenadjustingthemalltoaccountforrisk.–theseareprojectspecificCollectingafter-the-marketinformationonprojectstoproduceareportthattheorganizationhopeswillsatisfysomeorganizationalreportingrequirement.21ThebenefitsofPortfolioManagementHavingastructureinplacetoselecttherightprojectsandimmediatelyremovethewrongprojectsPlacingresourceswhereitmatters,reducingwastefulspendingLinkingportfoliodecisionstostrategicdirectionandbusinessgoalsEstablishinglogic,reasoning,andasenseoffairnessbehindportfoliodecisionsEstablishingownershipamongstthestaffbyinvolvementattherightlevels22ContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques23ProjectPortfolioManagement,Process&TechniqueFourstepsProjectEvaluationMatrixEvaluationCriteriaExamples24Step1:DefinethePortfolioFirst,establishtheoverallportfoliomission.Thismissionstatementwillbeusedtoinitiallydeterminewhatprojectsareinoroutoftheportfolio.Themissionstatementcanbesimple,like:

TheIntranetPortfoliocoversallprojectstobedeployedonthecorporateintranet.25Step2:GathertheProjectsNow,gatheralltheprojectstogetherthatyouthinkmightbeintheportfolio.Thismaynotbethelistyoualreadyhave.Someprojects,includingduplicateefforts,maybeunderwayinotherpartsoftheorganization.26Step3:BeginWeedingOncetheprojectlistisestablished,beginweedingthelistdown.Removeprojectsthat:Areduplicateefforts.Hereisanopportunitytosavemoneybypoolingtwoormoreeffortsintoasingleproject.Donotmeetthemissionarea.Someprojectsmaybeunderyourwingbutdonotfitinthemissionarea.Removethemfromyourportfolioandplacethemelsewhere.27Step4:BeginEvaluatingOncetheportfoliolistisset,beginevaluatingeachprojecttodeterminewhattheoverallportfoliowilllooklike.Usingthefour-quadrantmatrixhere,evaluatetheprojectsagainsttwomajorcriteria:Whatarethepotentialrisksinimplementingthisproject?Whatarethepotentialbenefitsinimplementingthisproject?28QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProjectRiskProjectBenefitsLowHighHighProjectEvaluationMatrix29UsingtheMatrixThematrixisusedasascoringtooltomapprojectsagainsttheevaluatedlevelofriskandtheevaluatedpotentialbeneficialimpactofaproject.Projectsareevaluatedonbothriskandbenefitfromlowtohighusingaseriesofquestionsandscores.Projectsarethenevaluatedintheworksheetanddecisionsmadeforinclusionandbalancingtheportfolio.30QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProjectRiskProjectBenefitsLowHighHighMatrixDecisionRegionsProjectstoremovefromtheportfolioProjectstokeepintheportfolio31EvaluationCriteriaTheEvaluationMatrixusestwobasiccriteria:RiskandBenefit.Fivesampleriskareas:RiskofCompletionOnTime(ScheduleRisk)RiskofManagingMultipleOrganizations(OrganizationalRisk)RiskofTechnologiesUsedfortheApplication(TechnologicalRisk)RiskofNotProceedingwiththeProject(RiskofNotDoingIt)ProjectsImplementationandMaintenanceCostsFivesamplebenefitareas:NumberofpotentialgroupsorusersneedingapplicationProjectsImpactonCross-FunctionalActivitiesProjectsImpactonImprovingInternalCultureProjectsImpactonImprovingExternalCustomerServiceEstimatedBenefit/CostRatio(PotentialSavingsorProfits)32RiskAssessmentScorecard-illustrationRiskCategoryWeightedScaleExampleLowRiskProjectScoreHighRiskProjectScoreScheduleRiskAssessment25%15OrganizationalRiskAssessment20%24TechnologicalRiskAssessment20%17RiskofNotDoingProject25%41ProjectSupportCosts10%14TOTALRISKSCORES100%92633BenefitsAssessmentScorecard-illustrationBenefitCategoryWeightedScaleExampleLowBenefitProjectScoreHighBenefitProjectScorePotentialUserBase20%25Cross-FunctionalImprovements10%16ImprovingCorporateCulture20%26ImprovingCustomerService25%05Benefit/CostRatio25%15TOTALRISKSCORES100%62734PlottheProjectontheMatrixQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProjectRiskProjectBenefitsLowHighHighOurLowRisk/LowBenefitProjectMightBeRejectedorDelayedOurHighRisk/HighBenefitProjectMightBeApproved35WhatisthedifferencePortfolioManagement