2024美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)研究報(bào)告

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JOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARD THESTATEOFTHENATION’SHOUSINGJointCenterforHousingStudiesofHarvardHarvardGraduateSchoolofDesign|HarvardKennedy

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TABLEOFExecutive Housing Demographic Rental Housing InteractiveDataand ONLINETABLESAND?2024bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardTheopinionsexpressedinTheStateoftheNation’sHousing2024donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofHarvardUniversityorthePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies.

PolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies.AdditionalsupportwasprovidedbyFederalHomeLoanHabitatforHumanityInternationalHousingAssistanceCouncilMBA’sResearchInstituteforHousingAmericaNationalApartmentAssociationNationalAssociationofHomeNationalAssociationofHousingandRedevelopmentOfficialsNationalAssociationofNationalHousingConferenceNationalHousingEndowmentNationalLeagueofCitiesNationalLowIncomeHousingCoalitionNationalMultifamilyHousingCouncilNeighborWorksAmerica

人口驅(qū)動(dòng)因素.16租賃住房.29I?2024bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvard

聯(lián)邦住房貸款銀行、HabitatforHumanity國(guó)際住房援助委員會(huì)、MBA美國(guó)住房研究學(xué)院、全國(guó)戶型住房委員會(huì)、NeighborWorksAmericaJOINTCENTERFORJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITTHESTATEOFTHENATION’SHOUSINGTHESTATETHESTATEOFTHENATION’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITBothhomeownersandrentersarestrugglingwithhighhousingcosts.Onthefor-saleside,millionsofpotentialhomebuyershavebeenpricedoutofthemarketbyelevatedhomepricesandinterestrates.Homeownercostburdensarealsoontherise,drivenbygrowingtaxesandinsurancecosts.Forrenters,thenumberwithcostburdenshashitanall-timehighasrentshaveescalated.Whilesingle-familyconstructionisacceleratingandasurgeofnewmultifamilyrentalunitsisslowingrentgrowth,anygainsinaffordabilityarelikelytobelimitedbyrobusthouseholdgrowth,ongoingdevelopmentconstraints,andhighconstructioncosts.Allstakeholdersmustworktogethertoaddresstheaffordabilitycrisisandmanyrelatedurgenthousingchallenges,includingtheinadequatehousingsafetynet,therecordnumberofpeopleexperiencinghomelessness,andthegrowingthreatofclimatechange.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARHousingCostsEXECUTIVE SUMMARLackofaffordabilitydefinesboththefor-saleandthefor-renthousingmarkets.Homepricesreboundedtoanewall-timehighinearly2024despitepersistentlyelevatedinterestrates.Afterdecliningbrieflyinearly2023,homepricesendedtheyearup5.6percentannuallyandcontinuedtoriseinearly2024atanannualrateof6.4percentinFebruary,accordingtotheS&PCoreLogicCase-ShillerUSNationalHomePriceIndex.Withthesegains,theUShomepriceindexandhasjumpedawhopping47percentsinceearly2020(Figure1).Homepricegrowthwaswidespreadinearly2024,occurringin97ofthetop100markets,withhigherincreasesintheNortheastandMidwestandmoremutedgrowthintheSouthandWest.Additionally,homeinsurancepremiumsgrewanaverageof21percentbetweenMay2022andMay2023alone,accordingtoPolicygenius,andpropertytaxesareontherise,furtherincreasingthecostofhomeownership.

FigureHousingCostsRemainElevatedAfterPandemic-EraSurges110 AskingRentsHomePricesNotes:Askingrentsareforprofessionallymanagedapartmentsinbuildingswithfiveormoreunits.Pricesandrentsareindexedto100in2020:1.HomepricesareseasonallyadjustedandareanaverageofJanuaryandFebruarydatain2024:1.Source:JCHStabulationsofRealPagedata;S&PCoreLogicCase-ShillerUSNationalHomePriceIndex.

2024準(zhǔn)普爾CoreLogic凱斯?席勒美國(guó)全國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)，2023年初房?jī)r(jià)略有下降后，全年上漲5.6%，并在2024年初繼續(xù)以6.4%的年率上漲，到2月份為止。隨著這些漲幅，美國(guó)202264.02020年初以來(lái)增長(zhǎng)了47%。（圖1）有97個(gè)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)，東北部和中西部的漲幅更高，而南部和西部的增長(zhǎng)則較為溫和。此外，根據(jù)Policygenius的數(shù)據(jù)，僅2022年5月至2023年5月，家庭保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)平均上漲了21

Figure1 AskingRentsHomePricesNotes:Askingrentsareforprofessionallymanagedapartmentsinbuildingswithveormoreunits.Pricesandrentsareindexedto100in2020:1.HomepricesareseasonallyadjustedandareanaverageofJanuaryandFebruarydatain2024:1.Source:JCHStabulationsofRealPagedata;S&PCoreLogicCase-ShillerUSNationalHomePriceIndex.Intherentalmarket,althoughrentgrowthslowedtojust0.2percentyearoveryearinearly2024,rentsremainup26percentnationwidesinceearly2020afterrapidpandemic-eragrowth.Rentsarerisinginthreeoutofeveryfivemarkets,includinginmuchoftheMidwestandNortheast.DeclineswerecontainedmostlytomarketsintheWestandSouth,thoughrentstherewerestillupfrompre-pandemiclevelsbyanaverageof21and28percent,respectively.CostBurdensHitRecordInthefaceofrisinghousingcosts,burdenratesareincreasing.Thenumberofcost-burdenedhome-owners,thosewhospendmorethan30percentofhouseholdincomeonhousingandutilities,grewby3oneinfourhomeownerhouseholds(23.2percent)arenowstretchedworryinglythin,including27.4percentofhomeownersage65andover.Householdsearninglessthan$30,000annuallyconstitutedoverhalfofthegrowthincost-burdenedhomeownersfrom2019to2022.Whilesuchburdensaredifficultforanyhousehold,theypresentdistinctchallengesforthesehomeowners.Duringthis

homeownerswithincomesunder$30,000sawtheirresidualincomes—theamountofmoneyleftovereachmonthafterpayingforhousingandutilities—fall18percenttojust$627afteradjustingforinfla-tion,forcingtoughchoicesamongdailynecessities,basichomemaintenanceandrepairs,andpossiblyaccessibilityimprovements.Forrenters,thelandscapeisevenmorechallenging.Whilerentshavebeenrisingfasterthanincomesfordecades,thepandemic-erarentsurgeproducedanunprecedentedaffordabilitycrisis.Halfofallrenterhouseholds—22.4million—werecostburdenedatlastnumberonrecord(Figure2).Likewise,thenumberofseverelycost-burdenedrenterhouseholds—thosespendingmorethanhalfofhouseholdincomeonin2022,up1.5millionfrompre-pandemiclevels.Amongrenters,cost-burdenrateshaveincreasedacrosstheincomespectrum.Still,renterswiththelowestincomeshavethehighestcost-burdenrates.Fully83percentofrenterhouseholdsearninglessthan$30,000annuallywerecostburdenedin2022,including65percent(9.4millionhouseholds)

20242%，但租金自2020年初疫情快速增長(zhǎng)以來(lái)，全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)仍上漲了26%。在三個(gè)市場(chǎng)中的每一個(gè)市場(chǎng)，包括中西部了21%和28%。年20223001970（23.2）負(fù)擔(dān)過(guò)重，令人擔(dān)憂，包括65歲及以上的房主中有27.42019年至2022年間，年收入低于3萬(wàn)美元的家庭構(gòu)成了

186272022增加了200萬(wàn)戶，創(chuàng)歷史新高（圖2）。同樣，嚴(yán)重成本負(fù)擔(dān)的租房家庭數(shù)量——即那些在住房和公用事業(yè)上花費(fèi)超過(guò)家庭收入一半的家庭——在2022年也達(dá)到了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1210萬(wàn)戶，比大流行前水平增加了150萬(wàn)戶。而，收入最低的租房者的成本負(fù)擔(dān)率最高。2022年，年收入低于3萬(wàn)美元的租房家庭中有83%面臨成本負(fù)擔(dān)，包65（940）FigureCostBurdensHitNewHighforRentersWhileAlsoRisingforCost-BurdenedHouseholds

FigureCostBurdensHitNewHighforRentersWhileAlsoRisingforCost-BurdenedHouseholds 200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021RentersHomeowners

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021RentersHomeownersNotes:Cost-burdenedhouseholdsspendmorethan30%ofincomeonhousingandutilities.Estimatesfor2020areomittedduetodatacollectionissuesexperiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Year

collectionissuesexperiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Yearsevereburdens.Renterswiththelowestincomeshaveamedianofjust$310permonthinresidualincometocoverallnon-housingneeds.MorethanhalfofBlack(57percent),Hispanic(54percent),andmultiracial(50percent)renterhouse-holdswerecostburdenedatlastmeasurein2022.Rateswerelowerforwhite(45percent),Asian(44percent),andNativeAmerican(44percent)house-holds.Whileracialincomeinequalityexplainssomeofhighforlower-incomerentersofcolor,at85and87comparedto80percentoftheirwhitecounterparts.HouseholdGrowthStillDespitehighhousingcosts,householdgrowthremainedrobustthroughlastyear.Thenationgained1.7millionhouseholdsbetween2022and2023,accordingtotheHousingVacancySurvey.Thoughlowerthanthepreviousyear’s1.9millionnewhouse-holds,thisisstillasignificantuptickfromthe1.1millionannualpaceaveragedinthe2010s.ThisgrowthisdrivenlargelybyGenZers(born1995—2009)benefitingfromthehealthylabormarket

millennials(born1980—1994)whogotalatestartonformingtheirownhouseholdsbecauseoftheGreatRecession.Additionally,thelargepopulationofbabyboomersisincreasingthenumberofolderisballooningimmigration,whichpeakedat3.3millionin2023accordingtotheCongressionalBudgetOffice,afteraveraging919,000annuallyinthe2010s.Themajorityofthisincreaseisasylumseekersfacinghouseholdgrowthmayremainstrongforsometime,asthispopulationwilleventuallyformhouseholds.NewUnitsSoftenRentalin2023,thehighestannuallevelinmorethanthreedecades,andthenumberofunitsunderconstructionunitshavecomeonline,theyhaveoutnumberedevensizeableincreasesinnewrenterhouseholds,andsotherentalmarkethascooledslightly(Figure3).Real-Pagereportsvacancyratesinprofessionallymanagedapartmentsroseto5.9percentatthebeginningof2024,morethantwicetherecordlowof2.5percentrecordedinearly2022.

2022（57）西班牙裔（54%）和混血家庭（50%）本負(fù)擔(dān)狀態(tài)。白人（45%）、亞洲裔（44%）住民（44%）家庭的比率較低。雖然種族收入不平等解釋地高，黑人租戶為85%，西班牙裔租戶為87%，而他們的白人同行為80%。家 增 仍然盡 high住 成本，家 增

國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室的數(shù)據(jù)，2023年達(dá)到330萬(wàn)人，而在201091.92024年2023年多戶型住宅竣工量上升22%，達(dá)到44.9920243溫（圖3）（注1）（注2）。Real?Page報(bào)告稱，2024年初專業(yè)管理的公寓空置率上升至5.9%，是2022年初創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2.5%的一半以上。FigureSupplyofNewApartmentsIsOutpacingRentalUnitsinProfessionallyManagedProperties100-

FigureSupplyofNewApartmentsIsOutpacingRentalUnitsinProfessionallyManagedProperties

NetChangeinOccupied NewApartmentsCompleted

NetChangeinOccupied NewApartmentsCompletedNote:Estimatesarefour-quarterrollingtotalsforprofessionallymanagedapartmentbuildingswithfiveormoreunits.Source:JCHStabulationsofRealPagedata.

Note:Estimatesarefour-quarterrollingtotalsforprofessionallymanagedapartmentbuildingswithveormoreunits.Source:JCHStabulationsofRealPagedata.Atthesametimevacancieshaverisen,sohaveoper-AsofJanuary2024,apartmentoperatingexpensesincreasedby7.1percentyearoveryear,accordingtoYardiMatrix,ledbya27.7percentnationwideaverageincreaseinowners’insurancepremiums.Againstthisbackdrop,netoperatingincomegrowthfell2.8percentinthefirstquarterof2024,downfrom8.1percentayearearlier.Thesedeclinesaffectedvalu-ations:apartmentpropertypricesfellin2023forthefirsttimeinmorethanadecade,downmorethan10percentnationwidebytheendoftheyear,accordingtoRealCapitalAnalytics.ByMarch2024,priceswerefalling8.4percentyearoveryear.debtandequity,makenewmultifamilyprojectsmoreplummetedfromanannualizedrateof531,000unitsquarterof2024.Thisdeclinewillslowthepaceofnewbacklogofunitscurrentlyunderconstruction.

HomebuyersTowardNewHomesExistinghomesforsaleremaininshortsupply.1.1millionhomeswereavailableforpurchaseinMarch2024,downfrom1.7millioninMarchof2019,accordingtotheNationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR).Thisisjust3.2monthsofsupply,evenwiththecurrentreducedsalesrate.Annualexistinghomea30-yearlow.Theshortageofhomesforsaleisduelargelytothe“l(fā)ock-in”effectwherebycurrenthomeownerswithbelow-marketinterestratesaredisincentivizedtomove.Thoughthe30-yearmortgageinterestrateisonoutstandingresidentialmortgagesisjustover4homeownerstostayput,dramaticallyreducingthenumberofhomesavailableforsale.

產(chǎn)負(fù)債表帶來(lái)了壓力。根據(jù)YardiMatrix的數(shù)據(jù)，截至2024年1月，公寓運(yùn)營(yíng)費(fèi)用同比增長(zhǎng)7.1%，其中全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)業(yè)主保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)平均上漲27.7%。在這種背景下，凈運(yùn)營(yíng)20242.8%，低于去年同期的8.1%。這些下降影響了估值：根據(jù)RealCapitalAnalytics的數(shù)據(jù)，2023年公寓物業(yè)價(jià)格首次在十多年內(nèi)下跌，全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)跌幅超過(guò)10%，到年底時(shí)跌幅超過(guò)10%。到2024年3月，價(jià)格同比下降8.4%。2023531,0002024343,000

（NAR）的數(shù)據(jù)，2024年3月可供購(gòu)買的房屋僅為11020193170降低，這也僅相當(dāng)于3.2個(gè)月的供應(yīng)量。2023年現(xiàn)有房屋1941030房屋銷售短缺主要?dú)w因于“鎖定效應(yīng)”，即當(dāng)前擁有低于30押貸款利率徘徊在74（4）。這種利差激勵(lì)現(xiàn)有房主保FigureHomeowners’AverageMortgageRateIsfarBelowtheCurrentMarketAverageInterestRate

FigureAverageInterestRate MortgageLoansOutstandingCurrent30-YearMortgageRate

MortgageLoansOutstandingCurrent30-YearMortgageRateSource:JCHStabulationsofFederalHousingFinanceAgency,NationalMortgageDatabase;FreddieMac,PrimaryMortgageMarket Source:JCHStabulationsofFederalHousingFinanceAgency,NationalMortgageDatabase;FreddieMac,PrimaryMortgageMarketWithfewexistinghomesforsale,aspiringhome-buyersareturningtonewconstruction.Newhomesalesincreasedby4percentin2023,constituting15percentofallsingle-familyhomesalescomparedto12percentjusttwoyearsearlier.Thoughdownfortheyear-over-yearincrease.isstillhampered.Constraintsfromrestrictivezoningandregulatorypolicies,skilledlaborshortages,financinglimitations,andotherchallengesincreasethecostsandreducetheamountofdevelopment.Alternativeconstructiontechniques,suchasmodularatawiderrangeofpricepointsandfillsupplygaps.Manufacturedhousingconstructioncostscanbeaslittleas35percentofanequivalentsite-builthome,previousdecades.Inresponsetothehousingshortageandwidespreadconcernsaboutaffordability,anincreasingnumberofstateandlocalgovernmentsareremovingsupplybarriers.Somelocalareashavechangedzoningtoallowarangeofhousingtypesonlandpreviouslyhandfulofstateshavepreemptedlocalzoningcodestodoso.Otherplacesarerepurposingunderutilizedhasalsorelaxedpermittingandenvironmentalreviewcostly.Severalcities,suchasCharlottesville,Virginia,andCambridge,Massachusetts,haveremovedminimumparkingmandates.TheUSDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment(HUD)ishelpingtospurtheseeffortsbygranting$85milliontohelpidentifyandaddresszoning,landuse,andregulatorybarrierstohousingproduction.

HomeownershipIncreasinglyOutofReachThehighaffordabilityhurdlehasreducedthenumberoffirst-timehomebuyersandslowedthegrowthinhomeownershipoverthepastyear.AccordingtotheHousingVacancySurvey,thehomeownershipratefordemographic—fell0.4percentagepointsoverthelastUShomeownershiprateacrossallagegroupsinchedupjust0.1percentagepointsin2023to65.9percent,thesmallestincreasesince2016.Atopthereboundinhomeprices,persistentlyhighmortgageinterestrateshavefurtherlimitedaccesstohomeownershipformanypotentialfirst-timebuyers.than20years,accordingtotheFreddieMacPrimaryrateswereagainover7.0percentbymid-April,morethantwicethe3.0percentrateaveragedacross2020and2021.Thiscombinationofrisinginterestratesandhomepricespushedthemedianpaymentonhomemort-gageapplicationsup$108overthepastyear$2,201),accordingtotheMortgageBankersAssocia-thelastthreeyears.Forthelow-downpaymentloanscommonlypursuedbyfirst-timebuyers,thetotalmonthlypaymentonthemedian-pricedhomeissuchahighpaymentundercommonpayment-to-incomeratios,aborrowerwouldneedanannualincomeofatleast$119,800,athresholdjustoneinseven(6.6million)ofthenation’s45millionrenterhouseholdscanmeet.Itnowtakesanannualhouse-pricedhomeinnearlyhalfofallmetroareas.

房建設(shè)。2023年新房銷售增長(zhǎng)了4%，占所有單戶型住宅銷售的15%，比兩年前的12%有所增加。盡管2023年全年106萬(wàn)套，同比增長(zhǎng)25%。住房的建設(shè)仍然受到阻礙。限制性zoning和監(jiān)管政策、熟僅為同等現(xiàn)場(chǎng)建造房屋的35%，但產(chǎn)量仍僅為前幾十年水的州和地方政府正在消除供應(yīng)障礙。一些地區(qū)已經(jīng)改變zoning，允許在以前僅限于單戶型開(kāi)發(fā)的土地上建設(shè)各種zoning最低停車要求。美國(guó)住房和城市發(fā)展部（HUD）通過(guò)撥8500zoning

減緩了住房擁有率的增長(zhǎng)。根據(jù)住房空置率調(diào)查，35歲以0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，首次購(gòu)房者數(shù)量下降。因此，2023年美國(guó)所0.165.9%，這是自2016年以來(lái)的最小增幅。多潛在首次購(gòu)房者擁有住房的機(jī)會(huì)。根據(jù)FreddieMac主要抵押貸款市場(chǎng)調(diào)查，30年期固定利率抵押貸款利率在2023年10月達(dá)到峰值，達(dá)到7.79%，這是20多年來(lái)的最高水平。2024年初有所下降后，到4月中旬，利率再7.0202020213.08503,096（和保險(xiǎn)）（5）4500（660）能房屋，家庭年收入至少需要達(dá)到100,000美元。FigureMonthlyPaymentsontheMedian-PricedHomeNowExceedMonthlyHousingPaymentonMedian-PricedHome(2024

FigureMonthlyPaymentsontheMedian-PricedHomeNowExceedMonthlyHousingPaymentonMedian-PricedHome(2024 MonthlyPayment Four-QuarterAverageNotes:PaymentsareinflationadjustedusingtheCPI-UforAllItemsLessShelter.Monthlypaymentsassumeamortgagewitha3.5%downpaymentona30-yearfixed-rateloanwithzeropointsand0.55%mortgageinsurance,0.35%propertyinsurance,and1.15%propertytaxrates.Source:JCHStabulationsofFreddieMac,PrimaryMortgageMarketSurveys;NationalAssociationofRealtors,ExistingHome

MonthlyPayment Four-QuarterAverageNotes:PaymentsareinationadjustedusingtheCPI-UforAllItemsLessShelter.Monthlypaymentsassumeamortgagewitha3.5%downpaymentona30-yearxed-rateloanwithzeropointsand0.55%mortgageinsurance,0.35%propertyinsurance,and1.15%propertytaxrates.Source:JCHStabulationsofFreddieMac,PrimaryMortgageMarketSurveys;NationalAssociationofRealtors,ExistingHomebuyers,therecentrapidhomepriceappreciationhasprovidedsubstantialequitygainsformanyhome-owners.AccordingtoCoreLogic,theaveragehomeequityamongownerswithmortgagesAsofthefourthquarterof2023,theaveragemort-gagedhomeequityisasubstantial$298,000.Manycurrenthomeowners,especiallythosewithhigherincomes,arealsoenjoyingthebenefitsofpasthistor-icallylowmortgageinterestrates.HavinglockedinasawholearepayinglessonhousingdebtserviceasapercentageofincomethanatanytimesinceBarrierstoNarrowingRacialHomeownershipGapsThehighercostsofhomebuyinghavehamperedeffortstoreducethewideracialhomeownershipratepercent)andBlack(46.6percent)homeownershipratesaresignificantlylowerthanthatofwhitehouse-holds(74.0percent).Whilethesegapshaveremainedlargelyunchangedoverthepast30years,some

mentalprogresshadbeenmade:growthinBlackandHispanichomeownershipratesslightlyoutpacedtheUSaveragebeginningin2019andthroughthemajorityofthepandemic.However,continuingeventhosemodestgainsbecameincreasinglydifficultin2023astherisingcostofhomeownershipdispropor-tionatelypricedoutmostHispanicandBlackrentersufficientannualincometoaffordmonthlymortgagepaymentsonthemedian-pricedhome,ascomparedto16and29percentoftheirwhiteandAsiancounter-parts,respectively.Householdsofcolorfaceotherdisadvantages,too,includingalackofaccesstotheintergenerationaltransfersofwealththatserveasadownpaymentformanywhitehomebuyersandamoredifficulttimeaccessingmortgagefinancing.Initiativesthatofferdownpaymentassistanceandincreaseaccesstoaffordablecreditcanhelpaddressthesebarriers.Specialpurposecreditprogramsthatallowlenderslationswithahistoryofdisparatetreatment,includingsitioningtohomeownership.

CoreLogic的數(shù)據(jù)，202324,000119,9002023年第四季度，平均抵押貸款住房?jī)糁蹈哌_(dá)298,000美例比1980年以來(lái)任何時(shí)候都要低。2024一季度，西班牙裔（49.9%）和黑人（46.6%）白人家庭（74.0%）。盡管這些差距在過(guò)去30些進(jìn)步：從2023隨著購(gòu)房成本的上升，大多數(shù)西班牙裔和黑人租房家庭的價(jià)格不平等，這20248%13相比之下，他們的白人和亞洲裔counterparts1629%。

年第一季度，只有8%的黑人和13%的西班牙裔租房家庭們的白人和亞洲裔counterparts分別為16%和29%。ExpandingtheHousingSafetyhousingassistancebutdon’tgetit.Thenumberofverylow-incomerenterhouseholdsincreasedby4.4ineveryfourincome-eligiblerenterhouseholdsgotheseverylow-incomehouseholdshadworstcasehousingneeds,spendingmorethanhalftheirincomeonhousingorlivinginseverelyinadequatehousing,accordingtoHUD.Giventhehardshipsfacingthevastmajorityofrentersative.Butfederalfundinghasnotgrowntomeettherisingneed,andashousingcostsincrease,simplymaintainingcurrentlevelsofsupportrequiresmorefundingeachyear.Inneedofadditionalresources,manystateandlocalgovernmentsareexpandingtheirfundingforhousingassistance.They’vebeenhousingtrustfunds,multifamilyprivateactivitybondsthattotaled$17.2billionatlastmeasurein2020,andnearly$18billionallocatedtohousingneedsthroughAmericanRescuePlanstateandlocalfiscalrecoveryfunds.Whileeverybithelps,theseeffortspaleincomparisontothescopeofthehousingcrisis,andincreasedfederalresourcesarecriticaltomeaning-fullyaddressingtheneed.Ashousingcostshaverisen,sohasthenumberofpeopleexperiencinghomelessness,reachingarecord-high653,100peoplein2023.Theunshelteredfollowinganincreaseofnearly23,000peoplefromthepreviousyear.Thoughtherecentmigrantcrisisexplainssomeofthisgrowth,muchoftheincreaserents,andthealreadymeagerhousingsafetynet.Asonepieceofabroaderfederalstrategy,inearly2024HUDawardedarecord$3.2billionthroughitsContinuumofCareprogramtoprovide

FigureAreIncreasingAverageAnnualBillion-Dollar1510 Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Billion-DollarWeatherandClimateDisasters.opportunitiesandservicesforpeopleexperiencingresourceslikeEmergencyHousingVouchers,enabledHUDtohelpmorethan424,000householdsexitorassistance,prevention,andrehousingprogramsiscrucial,buttheseprogramscanonlygosofar,giventhelackofpermanentlyaffordablehousing.TheGrowingThreatofClimateChangetotheNation’sHousingThehousingstockisincreasinglyatriskofdamagefromseverehazards.Thenumberofbillion-dollardisastersrelatedtoclimatechangehasgrownfromlocatedinareaswithatleastmoderaterisk,accordingtotheFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)NationalRiskIndex.Aneffectiveresponserequiresbothstructuraladaptationsandfinancialresourcestoincreasehousehold,building,andlandresiliency,andtoreducefuturerisksbyshrinkingtheresidentialsector’scarbonfootprint.

440912021此外，根據(jù)HUD的數(shù)據(jù)，有創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的850萬(wàn)這樣的非常住房援助資金。他們得到了大約每年30億美元住房信托基金的幫助，以及截至2020年總計(jì)1720億美元的公寓1800達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的653,100人。無(wú)家可歸的人口也在去年達(dá)到256,60023,000作為更廣泛聯(lián)邦戰(zhàn)略的一部分，2024年初HUD通過(guò)其關(guān)30

AverageAnnualBillion-Dollar 11 Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Billion-DollarWeatherandClimateDisasters.如緊急住房券一起，使HUD在2023年幫助超過(guò)42.4萬(wàn)氣候變化對(duì)國(guó)家住房存量務(wù)管理署（FEMA）的國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)，截至最后統(tǒng)計(jì)，6050stockagainsttheimpactsofhurricanes,floods,wild-acquisition,retrofits,floodproofing,andlong-termplanning,amongotherstrategies.YetFEMA’shazardmitigationprogramsdeliveranaverageoflessthan$2cantlymoreresourcesandstrategiesareneededtoincreaseproperties’resiliency.Todate,thebulkofthefundinghasbeendedicatedtorecoveryandadaptationafteradisaster.Theprogramshelpthehardest-hithouseholdsandcommunitiesafteranThisapproachcouldleavecriticalneedsunmetatamomentofextremehouseholdvulnerability.Thebestwaytoreducethethreatofclimatechangetothenation’shousingstockistoreducethecarbonfootprintoftheresidentialsector,responsibleforastunning18percentofUSgreenhousegasemissions.Whileimprovedconstructionmaterialsandtechniqueshavehelpednewhomestobecomemoreenergyeffi-cient,greatpotentialliesinretrofittingolderhomes.andabarriertoimplementation.Tohelpreducecosts,theInflationReductionActof2022allocatedmorethan$9billionforrebatesandexpandedpropertyownertaxcredits,andanother$27billiontoleveragefinancingforcommunityandresidentialenergy-efficiencyimprovements,amongthelargestsuchfederalinvestments.AlongwithadditionalresourcesfortheWeatherizationAssistanceProgramthroughvariousstateresources,thereisaconcertedefforttomitigatehousing’simpactonclimatechangeandreducehouseholdenergyburdens.TheLookingforward,housingcostsarelikelytoremainthefaceofhighlyconstrainedsupply,prolongingthisunusuallydifficultmarketforfirst-timehomebuyers.Ontherentalside,theremaybesome

gainsinthenearterm.Wagegrowthishighandthenearly1millionnewmultifamilyunitscurrentlyunderconstructionwillsooncomeonline,suppressingrentgrowth.Butsubduedrentgrowthwillnotlastlong.Newconstructionstartsaredroppingrapidly,andfinancialconditionsareincreasinglyimpedingmulti-familydevelopmentprojects.shiftingdemographics.Housingdemandwillremainstronginthenearterm,fueledbytheimmigrationsurge,householdformationsamongGenZers,andthelargemillennialgeneration’sshiftinghousingneeds.However,demandisexpectedtoslowoverthelongerterm.Native-bornpopulationgrowthisdecel-eratingandwillsoonturnnegativeasbabyboomermortalityratesovertakebirthrates.Immigrationwillthenbecometheprimary,albeitmuchlesspredict-able,sourceofpopulationandhouseholdgrowth.Householdsacrosstheincomespectrumwillcontinuetostruggletosecureaffordablehousing.Yettheshortagewillremainmostacuteforthosewithlowincomes,especiallyifthenationcontinuestoloselow-rentunitsevenasthepopulationoffinanciallyvulnerablehouseholdsgrows.Whileregulatoryreliefandtechnologicalinnovationcanhelptogrowtheprivatesupplyoflower-costhousing,thereisalsoaneedtoexpandthehousingsafetynetbeyondthewithverylowincomes.Otherhousingchallengesarealsolikelytobecomethehousingstock’sresiliencytoclimatechangeandreduceitssignificantcarbonfootprint.Giventheimportanceofhomeownershipasasourceofhouse-holdstabilityandwealth,narrowingthewideracialhomeownershipdisparitiesisalsoanincreasinglyurgentpolicyconcern.Addressingthesepressingneedswillrequirecontributionsfrompolicymakersatalllevelsofgovernmentaswellastheprivateandablehomesinthrivingcommunities.

（FEMA）的災(zāi)害減輕計(jì)劃每年平均向各州和部落國(guó)家提供不到20億美元的資金，并且需要更多的資源和策略來(lái)提門的碳足跡，該部門占美國(guó)溫室氣體排放量的驚人18%。成為實(shí)施的障礙。為了幫助降低成本，2022年通貨膨脹減免法案為退款和擴(kuò)大財(cái)產(chǎn)所有者稅收抵免分配了超過(guò)90億2702021

短期內(nèi)將實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。工資增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，目前有近100萬(wàn)套多力。短期內(nèi)，由于移民激增、Z世代家庭形成以及千禧一homeownershiphomeownership擔(dān)得起的住房供應(yīng)。Risinghomeprices,elevatedinterestrates,andalimitedsupplyofhomesforsalehaveforcedmanypotentialhomebuyersoutofthemarket.Existinghomesalesfelltoanearthree-decadelowin2023.Nevertheless,newsingle-familyconstructionisincreasing,helpingtooffsettheacutesupplyshortage.Bycontrast,rentalvacancyratesarerisingandrentgrowthhasstalledasalargevolumeofnewapart-cost,quantities,andlocationsneededmost.

房?jī)r(jià)上漲、高利率以及可供出售的房屋供應(yīng)有限迫使許多潛在購(gòu)房者退出市場(chǎng)。2023年現(xiàn)房銷售降至近三十年來(lái)的HomePricesRisingAfterabriefperiodofdecline,homepricesturnedupwardinearly2023despitepersistentlyhigherinterestrates.TheS&PCoreLogicCase-ShillerUSJanuary2023,thefirstdeclineinoveradecade(Figure7).Sincethen,homepriceshavereboundedandwereup6.4percentyearoveryearbyFebruary

Nationwide,homepriceshavejumpedashocking47percentsinceearly2020(23percentwhenadjustedforinflation)and115percentsince2010(58percentpriceforexistinghomesintheUSwas$389,300,ascomparedto$271,900in2019,accordingtoNAR.Homepricegrowthwaswidespreadacrossthe

2023暫的下降后再次上漲。從2022年6月到2023年1月，標(biāo)CoreLogic超過(guò)十年來(lái)的首次下降（圖7）。此后，房?jī)r(jià)有所回升，202426.4%，或經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后增長(zhǎng)

202047（調(diào)整后上漲23%），自2010年以來(lái)上漲了115%（經(jīng)通58）NAR2023389,3002019271,9002024310097FigureAfteraBriefDip,HomePriceGrowthHasHomePrice AnnualChange

FigureHomePrice AnnualChange

HomePriceIndex AnnualChange(Rightscale)

-10

HomePriceIndex AnnualChange(Rightscale)

-HOUSING MARKETSource:JCHStabulationsofS&PCoreLogicCase-ShillerUSNationalHomePrice Source:JCHStabulationsofS&