美國高收益信貸分析師關(guān)注名 單

1、U.S. High Yield Credit Analyst Focus ListDecember 2019North America Credit Research06 December 2019This is the 51st consecutive quarterly J.P. Morgan High Yield Analyst Focus List (AFL). The pace of market evolution continues to accelerate, but our core mission of helping investors navigate the leve

2、raged credit markets remains unchanged. We are grateful for and humbled by the long-standing partnership of our clients.Idiosyncratic risk has been a euphemism terrible in 2019. However, given a constructive economy and overall tighter spread levels across fixed income, there more opportunity for id

3、iosyncratic risk to outperform in 2020 in our opinion our strategy teams Single B Overweight). Given backdrop (and popular demand), remain focused on swap ideas in the 51st List. The swap ideas within include intra-capital structure trades as as straightforward swaps within sectors. Beta neutrality

4、is not goal, but rather simple, executable and hopefully alpha generating long/short tradeideas.Regular programming notes: This quarterly roundup is a complete refresh; ideas carried over and presented again are considered superseded by new ideas. Names may be removed intra-quarter when a valuation

5、target has been largely wholly achieved the original rationale is considered no longer valid. ideas can also be added intra-quarter. For intra-quarter additions deletions, analysts will post a of their rationale to our Morgan Markets website, where the most up-to-date can be found at anytime.We hope

6、 you find this report helpful and, as always, we welcome feedback.U.S. High Yield Credit Research Tarek Hamid AC(1-212) 834-5468 HYPERLINK mailto:tarek.x.hamid tarek.x.hamidJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee page 23 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswit

7、hcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatmay a of the of as a HYPERLINK / High Yield Focus ListSectorTickerCompany NameSwapAnalyst NamePageAutomotiveNAVNavistarSell NAV 6.625% Sr. Notes due 2025Avi Steiner3TENTennecoBuy TEN 5.375% Sr. Notes due 2024Avi Steiner3Cable/

8、SatelliteATUS/CSCHLDAltice USASell CSCHLD 5.75% Sr. Notes due 2030Michael Pace4CHTRCharter CommunicationsBuy CHTR 4.75% Sr. Notes due 2030Michael Pace4ChemicalsPOLPolyOne CorpSell POL 5.25% Sr. Unsecured Notes due 2023Nathan Schubert5NCXNOVA ChemicalsBuy NCX 5.25% Sr. Unsecured Notes due 2023Nathan

9、Schubert5Consumer ProductsENREnergizer Holdings IncSell ENR 6.375% Sr. Notes due 2026Carla Casella6NWLNewell Brands IncBuy NWL 4.20% Sr. Notes due 2026Carla Casella6EnergyRRCRange ResourcesSell RRC 5.000% Sr. Notes due 2023Tarek Hamid7ASCRESAscent ResourcesBuy ASCRES 10.000% Sr. Notes due 2022Tarek

10、Hamid7Food & BeveragesBCBCN/COTCott Holdings IncSell BCBCN 5.50% Sr. Notes due 2025Carla Casella8ARMKAramark Services IncBuy ARMK 5.00% Sr. Notes due 2028Carla Casella8Gaming/LeisureMGMMGM Resorts InternationalSell MGM 5.50% Sr. Notes due 2027Michael Pace9BYDBoyd Gaming CorpBuy BYD 4.75% Sr. Notes d

11、ue 2027Michael Pace9HealthcareTEVATeva Pharmaceutical IndustriesSell TEVA 6.75% Sr. Notes due 2028David Common10ENDPEndo InternationalBuy ENDP 7.5% 1st Lien Notes due 2027David Common10HousingTOLToll Brothers Inc.Sell TOL 4.875% Sr. Notes due 03/15/27Arjun Chandar11LENLennar Corp.Buy LEN 4.750% Sr.

12、Notes due November 2027Arjun Chandar11Media/Broadcasting/PublishingGTNGray TelevisionSell GTN 5.875% Sr. Notes due 2026Avi Steiner12UVNUnivisionBuy UVN 5.125% Secured Notes due 2023Avi Steiner12Metals & MiningHBMCNHudbaySell HBMCN 7.250% Senior Notes due 2023Arjun Chandar13FMCNFirst QuantumBuy FMCN

13、7.250% Senior Notes due 2023Arjun Chandar13Paper & PackagingBERYBerry GlobalSell BERY 5.625% 2nd Lien Notes due 2027Nathan Schubert14CCKCrown HoldingsBuy CCK 4.75% Senior Notes due 2026Nathan Schubert14Power & UtilitiesCPNCalpine CorporationSell CPN 5.250% Sr. Secured Notes due 2026Tarek Hamid15TLNT

14、alen EnergyBuy TLN 6.625% Sr. Secured Notes due 2028Tarek Hamid15REITsSTWDStarwood Property TrustSell STWD 4.75% Sr. Notes due 2025Mark Streeter16LADRLadder CapitalBuy LADR 5.25% Sr. Notes due 2025Mark Streeter16RetailBBBYBed Bath & Beyond Inc.Sell BBBY 4.915% Sr. Notes due 2034Carla Casella17LBL Br

15、ands Inc.Buy LB 7.5% Sr. Notes due 2029Carla Casella17ServicesADT/PRSESEADT Security CorpSell PRSESE 5.75% 1L Sr. Notes Due 2026Yilma Abebe18ADT/PRSESEADT Security CorpBuy ADT 4.875% 1L Sr. Notes Due 2032Yilma Abebe18ServicesCARAvis Budget GroupSell CAR 5.75% Sr. Notes due 2027Yilma Abebe19HTZHertz

16、Global HoldingsBuy HTZ 6.00% Sr. Notes due 2028Yilma Abebe19TechnologyCOMMCommScopeSell COMM 6.00% Sr. Secured Notes due 2026Thomas Egan20COMMCommScopeBuy COMM 8.25% Sr. Notes due 2027Thomas Egan20Telecommunication ServicesCTLCenturyLinkSell CTL 5.625% Sr. Notes due 2025Thomas Egan21ALTICEAltice Int

17、ernationalBuy ALTICE 7.625% Sr. Notes due 2025Thomas Egan21TransportationFLYFly LeasingSell FLY 5.25% Sr. Notes due 2024Mark Streeter22VAHLLCVoyager AviationBuy VAHLLC 8.50% Sr. Notes due 2021Mark Streeter22Source: J.P. Morgan.Pricing in this report is the most recent available.Issuer Rating (NAV)Ne

18、utralMoodys: B2; Outlook: S S&P: B; Outlook SIssuer Rating (TEN)NeutralMoodys: B1; Outlook: S S&P: BB; Outlook NU.S. AutomotiveAvi Steiner AC(1-212) 270-5512 HYPERLINK mailto:avi.a.steiner avi.a.steinerBonnie Wang(1-212) 270-4593 HYPERLINK mailto:bonnie.wang bonnie.wangJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCNavi

19、star (NAV) Tenneco (TEN)Sell NAV 6.625% Sr. Notes due 2025Bid at $102.75 (5.35%); Target: $100.375 (6.50%)Buy TEN 5.375% Sr. Notes due 2024Offered at $90.75 (7.625%); Target: $92.25 (7.25%)Credit and Investment Highlights:On September 19, Navistar held an Investor Day in which it provided 2020 reven

20、ue and adjusted EBITDA guidance and longer-term adj. EBITDA margin target of 12% by 2024 as compared to 8% today. On November 13, Navistar provided an update to its fiscal 2019 outlook, noting that results would come in at the low end of its prior guidance range due to the impact of the GMstrike.On

21、October 31, Tenneco reported third quarter results in which both revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded estimates, while guiding full year results below prior guidance. Management reiterated its commitment to the spin though noted market conditions, if they continue, delay separation beyondmid-2020.Ri

22、sks to our ratings:LinkWhy This Swap Should Outperform:Take out points, pick up yield and spread: At recent levels investors can take out 12 points, pick up 200bps in yield and spread, move into a slightly better rated credit though be required to extend for a 2yr period on a yield to worst basis (s

23、horten by 1yr on a maturitybasis).Leverage Tenneco remains committed to the separation of its aftermarket business from its powertrain business. To this end on its last conference call, management noted it is evaluating multiple strategic options to reduce leverage to facilitate the separation which

24、 we believe could include non-core asset sales that may be larger in size than its lastdisposition.Domestic commercial vehicle market set to decline: Following months of lower commercial vehicle orders, including a 10% seasonally adjusted sequential decline in N.A. Heavy Duty orders in November, 202

25、0 commercial vehicle sales and production are expected to decline. Specifically, ACT is forecasting an 8% and 12.5% decrease in Medium Duty sales and production and a 25% and 32.5% drop in HeavyDuty.Relative Value SwapDescriptionBidOfferYTWSTWRatingYTWSELL Navistar (NAV)6.625% Senior Notes due 2025$

26、102.755.35%405 bpB3/B-11/01/22BUY Tenneco (TEN)5.375% Senior Notes due 2024$90.757.62%610 bpB3/BB-12/15/24$12.002.27%205 bp- / +3-2.1Sources: J.P. Morgan, Moodys, and S&P. Priced as of 3 Dec 2019.Issuer Rating (ATUS)NeutralMoodys: Ba3; Outlook: S S&P: BB-; Outlook: SIssuer Rating (CHTR)OverweightMoo

27、dys: Ba1; Outlook: S S&P: BB+; Outlook: SCable/SatelliteMichael Pace AC(1-212) 270-6530 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.pace michael.paceColton Ransom(1-212) 834-4684 HYPERLINK mailto:colton.f.ransom colton.f.ransomJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAltice USA (ATUS / CSCHLD)Charter Communications (CHTR)Sell CSCHLD

28、 5.75% Sr. Notes due 2030Bid at $105.5 (4.92%); Target: $104.5 (5.14%)Buy CHTR 4.75% Sr. Notes due 2030Offered at $102.375 (4.38%); Target: $103.25 (4.25%)Credit and Investment Highlights:ATUS is the fourth largest cable operator in the US with 4.5m customer relationships, with total leverage in the

29、 low-5x context. Share buybacks were prioritized so far in 2019, although we expect no buybacks in Q4. Going forward, we expect the company to manage buybacks within a 5x total net leverage ratio. 3Q19 results were weak, underpinned by soft residential net additions and revenue and Adj EBITDA slight

30、ly below our estimates. 4Q19 unit additions were also tempered due to promotional period roll-offs; our updated model and thoughts after 3Q19 earnings can be found.CHTR is the second largest U.S. cable operator with 27m residential customer relationships. We believe credit quality is underpinned by

31、its significant size/scale, above-average growth prospects, meaningful FCF generation, and a well-understood financial policy (4.0 x-4.5x total leverage +/- 0.5x). We remain confident that the company is unlikely to lever-up for any potential M&A or strategic investment and risk IG ratings on over $

32、40bn of secured bonds. updated model and thoughts after 3Q19 earnings can be foundWhy This Swap Should Outperform:We believe longer-dated CHTR HY bonds stack up well versus comparable bonds trading 50bps apart. We believe fair value is 75bps to 100bps. Although we acknowledge the 50bp “give-up”, we

33、note a take-out of 3pts, a reduction of total leverage (0.5x to 0.75x), higher agency ratings, and a move into much greater size/scale. While press reports like to discuss further potential cable consolidation, we believe ATUS is likely to be more of a buyer of smaller cable properties than a seller

34、 of itself over the next fewyears.For risks to our ratings, see.Relative Value SwapDescriptionBidOfferYTWSTWRatingYTWSELL ATUS USA (CSCHLD)5.75% Senior Notes due 2030$105.54.92%320 bpB3/B1/15/28BUY Charter (CHTR)4.750% Senior Notes due 2030$102.384.38%267 bpB1/BB9/1/27$3.13-0.54%-53 bp+2 /+30.4Sourc

35、es: J.P. Morgan, Moodys, and S&P. Priced as of 4 Dec 2019.Issuer Rating (POL)NeutralMoodys: Ba2; Outlook: S S&P: BB; Outlook: SIssuer Rating (NCX)OverweightMoodys: Ba2; Outlook: S S&P: BB+; Outlook: SChemicalsNathan Schubert AC(1-212) 270-7283 HYPERLINK mailto:nathan.schubert nathan.schubertJ.P. Mor

36、gan Securities LLCRelative Value SwapPolyOne Corp (POL) NOVA Chemicals (NCX)Sell POL 5.25% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 Bid at $107.625 (2.80%); Target: $104.00 (3.93%)Buy NCX 5.25% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 Offered at $101.500 (4.22%); Target: $101.750 (3.83%)Credit and Investment Highligh

37、ts:PolyOne is a provider of specialized polymer materials, services and solutions with operations in specialty engineered materials, color and additive systems, plastic sheet and film solutions and polymer distribution. The company also develops and manufactures performance enhancing additives, liqu

38、id colorants and fluoropolymers and silicone colorants. The company sells its productsinto the transportation, healthcare, consumer products, industrial, packaging construction and wire & cable industries, amongNOVA Chemicals manufactures and sells plastics and chemicals. The company operates two se

39、gments, Olefins/Polyolefins and Expendable Styrenics, and its products are found in a wide range of end-markets spanning from consumer products toindustrials.Why This Swap Should Outperform:Immediate upside. Investors shorten duration by approximately 2.5 years, pick- up more than six dollar points,

40、 145bp of yield and move into a higher rated issuance.M&A risk trade. NOVA Chemicals remains an acquisition target for IG-rated CPChem as it looks to grow its geographic footprint and acquire upstream USGC ethylene capacity. Conversely, Bloomberg reported in early October that discussions between Po

41、lyOne and Clariant to acquire Clariants Masterbatches business “are the most advanced.” The article reports that Clariant is seeking $1.5 billion for theassets.Risks: DescriptionBidOfferYTWSTWRatingsYTWSELL Polyone Corp (POL)5.25% Sr Unsecured Nts due3/15/2023 107.6252.80%123bpBa3 /3/15/23BUY Nova C

42、hemicals Corp (NCX)5.25% Sr Unsecured Ntsdue8/1/2023101.5004.25%267bpBa2 /8/1/206.131.45%143 bp+1/+1(2.6)6.131.45%143 bp+1/+1(2.6)Sources: J.P. Morgan, Moodys, and S&P. Priced as of 4 Dec 2019.Issuer Rating (ENR)UnderweightMoodys: B2; Outlook: S S&P: B+; Outlook SIssuer Rating (NWL)NeutralMoodys: Ba

43、a3; Outlook: N S&P: BB+; Outlook SConsumer ProductsCarla Casella, CFA AC(1-212) 270-6798 HYPERLINK mailto:carla.casella carla.casellaSarah Clark(1-212) 834-5488 HYPERLINK mailto:sarah.s.clark sarah.s.clarkJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCEnergizer Holdings Inc (ENR) Newell Brands Inc (NWL)Sell ENR 6.375% S

44、r. Notes due 2026 Bid at $107 (3.8%); Target: $105 Buy NWL 4.20% Sr. Notes due2026Offered at $103.5 (3.8%); Target: $105 (3.5%)Credit and Investment Highlights:Energizer (ENR) is a $2.5bn global battery, lighting, and auto care business selling under brand names including Energizer, Eveready, Rayova

45、c, Varta, ArmorAll, STP, and A/C Pro, among others. The company is currently integrating the Spectrum Brands (SPB) battery and autocare businesses that it bought for $2.8bn in early FY19. It is currently 5x levered with a goal of delevering to 4.2-4.4x in FY20 and 3.3-3.5x by 2022 once integration i

46、s complete. We have been Underweight ENR on a relative value basis (bonds rich for the single-B rating and high leverage), and we see near-term risk from integration and turnaround disruption, as well as strong competition from branded (Duracell) and private brand (Amazonbasics).Newell (NWL) will re

47、present the largest name in our Consumer index when added (2/1/20). It is a $9.7bn diversified business with brand names including Sharpie, Paper Mate, Expo, Elmers in Writing, Calphalon, Sunbeam, Crock-pot, Oster, Mr. Coffee in Appliances, Marmot, Coleman, Stearns in Outdoor, Graco, jogger, Nuk in

48、Baby, Yankee Candle in Home Fragrance, Ball and Rubbermaid in Food, among others. It completed 7 (+ 1 pending) asset sales since mid-2018 to pay down debt and is working toward 3.5x leverage by2020.Upside risks to ENR include faster than expected integration and delevering. Downside risk to NWL 2026

49、 bonds is disruption in achieving costsavings.Why This Swap Should Outperform:Newell is a better credit than ENR from a size (almost 4x larger), diversification (7 categories vs. 2), cash flow (2020E FCF/Debt 13% vs. 8%), and rating (split- double-B triple-B vs. single-B)standpoint.We see more near-

50、term debt pay down out of NWL, and believe it can show a path back to IG over the next few years using strong FCF to pay down debt. We believe ENR will see a slower path to delevering and it has greater business integration risks (battery & autocareintegration).Relative Value SwapDescriptionBidOffer

51、YTWSTWRatingsYTWSELL Energizer Holdings Inc (ENR)6.375% Sr Unsecured Nts due 7/15/2026106.93.82%228 bpB2 / B+7/15/21BUY Newell Brands Inc (NWL)4.2% Sr Unsecured Nts due 4/1/2026103.4993.80%207 bpBaa3 / BB+1/1/263.45-0.02%-21 bp+2/+34.5Sources: J.P. Morgan, Moodys, and S&P. Priced as of 4 Dec 2019.Is

52、suer Rating (RRC)UnderweightMoodys: Ba3; Outlook: N S&P: BB; Outlook: NIssuer Rating (ASCRES)OverweightMoodys: B2; Outlook: NA S&P: BB-; Outlook: NAEnergyTarek Hamid AC(1-212) 834-5468 HYPERLINK mailto:tarek.x.hamid tarek.x.hamidJon Dorfman, CFA(1-212) 834-4294 HYPERLINK mailto:jon.dorfman jon.dorfm

53、anAaron Rosenthal, CFA(1-212) 622-5828 HYPERLINK mailto:aaron.rosenthal aaron.rosenthalJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCRange Resources (RRC) Ascent Resources (ASCRES)Sell RRC 5.000% Sr. Notes due 2023Bid at $85.28 (10.41%); Target: $80.00 (12.63%)Buy ASCRES 10.000% Sr. Notes due 2022Offered at $95.38 (12.

54、33%); Target: $105.00 (7.00%)Credit and Investment Highlights:Range Resources is an independent oil and natural gas E&P with properties in the Appalachian and North Louisiana regions of the United States. As of September 30, 2019, Range had net leverage of 3.4x and total production of 2.24 bcfe/d (3

55、0% liquids). We expect Range to burn $140 million of cash in 2020, finishing the year at 4.0 x netleverage.Ascent Resources is a private oil and natural gas E&P with substantial liquids rich and dry gas assets in the Utica basin. As of September 30, 2019, Ascent net leverage of 2.4x and total produc

56、tion of 2.1 bcfe/d (12% liquids). We expect Ascent to generate positive free cash flow of $412 million in 2020, finishing the year at 1.9x netleverage.Risks to our ratings: operational execution and commodity pricevolatility.Why This Swap Should Outperform:Range is a solid operator with strong core

57、acreage, but operates a relativelyhigh cost structure which we expect will contribute to further cash burn in 2020. Range has already engaged in asset sales (ORRI) to reduce debt, though the company has indicated additional asset sales are likely in thefuture.Ascent is a top-tier operator, nearly qu

58、adrupling production from 542 MMcfe/d in 1Q17 to 2.1 Bcfe/d in 3Q19, and has turned the corner to sustainable positive free cash flow. Management is focused on generating free cash flow in 2020 on lower capex and has additional levers to pull with royalty acreageoptionality.Investors pay up $10pts i

59、n this swap and move into a slightly lower-rated (but in our view higher quality) credit, and are compensated by an additional 192bps of yield, 208bps of spread, doubling the coupon to 10%, and shortening duration by oneyear.Relative Value SwapDescriptionBidOfferYTWSTWRatingYTWSELL Range Resources(R

60、RC)5.000% Senior Notes due2023$85.2810.41%870 bpBa3/BB3/15/23BUY Ascent Resources (ASCRES)10.000% Senior Notes due 2022$95.3812.33%1078 bpB2/BB-4/1/22-$10.101.92%208 bp-2 / -1-1.0Sources: J.P. Morgan, Moodys, and S&P. Priced as of 4 Dec 2019.Issuer Rating (BCBCN)UnderweightMoodys: B1; Outlook: S S&P