unit13Foreign_Exchange1

1、1234567常見(jiàn)貨幣單位名稱(chēng)和代號(hào)常見(jiàn)貨幣單位名稱(chēng)和代號(hào)國(guó)家和地區(qū)國(guó)家和地區(qū) 貨幣單位名稱(chēng)貨幣單位名稱(chēng) 貨幣代號(hào)貨幣代號(hào) 美國(guó) 美元 USD 日本 日元 JPY 歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟 歐元 EUR 英國(guó) 英鎊 GBP 中國(guó)香港特別行政區(qū) 港元 HKD 加拿大 加拿大元 CAD 澳大利亞 澳大利亞元 AUD 新西蘭 新西蘭元 NZD 丹麥 丹麥克郎 DKK 瑞典 瑞典克郎 SEK 新加坡 新加坡元 SGD 8Terms and ExpressionspExchange rate 匯率pInterest rate 利率pThe European Union 歐盟pLegal tender 法定貨幣pFi

2、nancial transaction 金融交易pInternational currency 國(guó)際貨幣pForeign currency markets 外幣市場(chǎng)pForeign exchange reserves 外匯儲(chǔ)備9pOfficial rates 官方匯率/利率pFloating rates 浮動(dòng)匯率/利率pFixed rates 固定匯率/利率pThe Financial Times 金融時(shí)報(bào)pThe Wall Street Journal 華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)pThe Bank of International Settlement 國(guó)際清算銀行pThe International Mo

3、netary Fund 國(guó)際貨幣組織pThe World Bank 國(guó)際銀行10pOffer rate 賣(mài)出匯率/賣(mài)出價(jià)，貸款利率pBid rate 買(mǎi)入?yún)R率/買(mǎi)入價(jià)，存款利率pCurrency risk 貨幣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)pMarket economy 市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)pInvestment banks 投資銀行pMultinational firms 跨國(guó)公司pBuy debt 投資債券pThe global monetary system全球貨幣體系pTransaction expenses 交易費(fèi)用11Foreign exchangepthe currency of any foreign countr

4、y, which is the authorized instrument of settlement. In the context of international trade, foreign exchange means the instruments expressed in foreign currency and employed in making payments between countries - paper currency, checks, bill of exchange. 12Foreign exchange ratepExchange rate means p

5、rice of one currency in terms of another.p It is normally expressed in terms of how many units of home countrys currency are needed to buy one unit of a foreign currency. p匯率是指用另一種貨幣表示的一種貨幣的價(jià)格。通常以需要多少個(gè)單位的本國(guó)貨幣可買(mǎi)到一個(gè)單位的外國(guó)貨幣來(lái)表示。13I. Foreign Exchange Rate 1. Purpose of exchange rate system- to work out t

6、he worth of a currency when exchanging one currency into another- to provide a free and liquid market for the worlds currencies- to facilitate the exchange of currencies in global trade & investment142. Determination of exchange rates1) Purchasing power parity 購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)說(shuō)購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)說(shuō)- Prices of tradable go

7、ods and services tend to equalize across countries.- equalize purchasing power of two currencies in their respective countrya movie ticket： $6 in US = 540 in Japan- 匯率取決于兩國(guó)貨幣國(guó)內(nèi)購(gòu)買(mǎi)力的對(duì)比關(guān)系- It defines what exchange rates ideally should be152) Law of One Price 一價(jià)定律一價(jià)定律- estimate the exchange rate between

8、 two currencies using just one good or service as a measure of the proper exchange for all goods and services - one proper product ?- identical in quality and content- produced entirely domestically Big Mac !16The Big Mac Index - the hamburger standard In local currencyIn dollarActual exchange rate

9、Valuation against Dollar %US2.492.49Canada3.332.121.57 - 15% undervaluedChina10.501.276.37 - 51%undervalued17II. The Market for Currencies 1. Foreign currency exchange rate1) Concept - the price of any one countrys currency in terms of another countrys currencyE.g. the US dollar the European euro 1.

10、3156 dollars per euro US$ 1.3156 / or: EUR 1.00 = USD 1.3156But: US$ 1.1882 / February 24, 2006 US$ 1.3132/ March 5,2007 US$ 1.3156/ May 3,201218Currency symbols or currency abbreviations- the computer symbols (ISO-4217 codes): USD, EUR, RMB- a lack of agreement in international finance: eg. British

11、 bound sterling: , GBP, STG,19pAn exchange rate can be quoted in two wayspDirect (American) terms pIndirect (European) termspIn this course we will always (unless otherwise stated) quote the exchange rate in direct termsExchange Rate Quoting20pPrice of foreign currency in terms of national currencyp

12、direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units p目前大多數(shù)國(guó)家采用這種標(biāo)價(jià)法；在招商銀行開(kāi)辦的交易幣種當(dāng)中，日元、瑞士法郎、加拿大元、港幣、新加坡元均采用直接標(biāo)價(jià)法，如1美元=115.25日元；1美元=1.47加拿大元等。Direct Terms21pPrice of national currency in terms of foreign currencypindirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units p歐元、英鎊、

13、澳大利亞元采用間接標(biāo)價(jià)法，如1英鎊=1.6025美元；1歐元=1.5680加拿大元；1歐元=1.0562美元；1澳大利亞元=0.5922美元等Indirect Terms22p1.直接標(biāo)價(jià)法,是以一定單位（如1、100、10000）的外國(guó)貨幣為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)折算應(yīng)付若干單位的本國(guó)貨幣的匯率標(biāo)價(jià)方法。即以本國(guó)貨幣表示出外國(guó)貨幣的價(jià)格。p2.間接標(biāo)價(jià)法, 是以一定單位（如1、100、10000）的本國(guó)貨幣為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)折算應(yīng)收若干單位的外國(guó)貨幣的匯率標(biāo)價(jià)方法。即以外國(guó)貨幣表示出本國(guó)貨幣的價(jià)格。 23Terminology of exchange ratesSpot exchange rate - the exc

14、hange of currencies for immediate delivery (within two business days)Forward exchange rate - contracts to exchange currencies on a future date at an agreed-upon rate (for maturities of 30, 90, 120, 180, 360 days)- a valuable tool to lock in future rate of exchange24pIf the dollar depreciates against

15、 the euro ,this must mean that the euro has appreciated against the dollarpIf the dollar appreciates against the euro , this must mean that the euro has depreciated against the dollarAppreciation and Depreciation of a Currency25pAn exchange rate depreciation means the domestic currency has depreciat

16、ed pan exchange rate appreciation means the domestic currency has appreciatedpIf the exchange rate depreciates then epIf the exchange rate appreciates then eAppreciation and Depreciation of the Exchange Rate26pIf the $/ exchange rate moves from e=1.00 to e=.95pexchange rate has appreciated by 5%pDol

17、lar has appreciated against the euro by 5% (it now cost $0.95 as opposed to $1 to buy 1) pthe euro has depreciated against the dollar by approximately 5% (it now costs 1.05 to buy $1)Example27Foreign currency market structurea worldwide market where currencies are exchanged - telecommunication links

18、 - financial institutions around the globe - open 24 hours a day早上8時(shí)半（以紐約時(shí)間為準(zhǔn)）紐約市場(chǎng)開(kāi)市，9時(shí)半芝加哥市場(chǎng)開(kāi)市，10時(shí)半舊金山開(kāi)市，18時(shí)半悉尼開(kāi)市，19時(shí)半東京開(kāi)市，20時(shí)半香港、新加坡開(kāi)市，凌晨2時(shí)半法蘭克福開(kāi)市，3時(shí)半倫敦市場(chǎng)開(kāi)市。如此24小時(shí)不間斷運(yùn)行，外匯市場(chǎng)成為一個(gè)不分晝夜的市場(chǎng)，只有星期六、星期日以及各國(guó)的重大節(jié)日，外匯市場(chǎng)才會(huì)關(guān)閉。 28Evolution of the Global Monetary SystempThe gold standard, 1880s - WWIpInterwar ye

19、ars, 1919-1939pThe Bretton Woods System, 1944-1971pTimes of crisis, 1971-1973pFloating exchange rates, 1973-presentp Mixed-fixed/floating exchange rate system29pPeriod of the Gold Standard, 1880s WWI - Three basic ideas:1. a system of fixed rates of exchange; 2. “money” backed by gold reserves; 3. g

20、old acting as an automatic adjustment - a choice resulting from historical tradition30金本位制金本位制指所使用的貨幣為含有法定重量和成色的黃金的金屬鑄幣以及可以按照票面價(jià)值隨時(shí)兌換成鑄幣的紙幣，對(duì)黃金進(jìn)出口無(wú)限制，有足夠黃金儲(chǔ)備供國(guó)內(nèi)兌換和國(guó)際結(jié)算的貨幣制度。采用過(guò)金本位制的國(guó)家有：英、德、比、意、瑞士、美、荷、奧、日、俄。31- functions: a. defining the value of a currency$20.67 per ounce; 4.2474 per ounce;b. determ

21、ining the exchange rate between two currencies $20.67 / = $4.8665/4.2474 / ounce of goldonce of gold32pInterwar years, 1919-1939In the 20s: - STG greatly weakened; - USD back to gold standard (1919), but not other countries (1920s); In the 30s: - end of gold convertibility in US; - rise of isolation

22、ism & protectionism;- decline of world trade & the need for currency exchange: 33pPeriod of the Bretton Woods System, 1944-1971Background: - a growing need for a system for currency convertibility and stabilityBretton Woods Conference: - 44 +1 countries gathered in Bretton Woods，NH, for a po

23、stwar international monetary system 34Bretton Woods Agreement: to establishpFixed exchange rates system（“adjustable peg”） pA fund of gold and currencies, available to member countries (IMF) - to provide sufficient liquidity (黃金、外匯、特別提款權(quán)的儲(chǔ)備量）3. A bank, providing funding for long-term development proj

24、ects (WB). - to extend credit for countries to defend their currency values 35Bretton Woods System: “adjustable peg”- setting par values of currencies in terms of gold;- no convertibility to gold, but to US dollar only;- USD: the only currency officially convertible to gold (pegged at $35/ounce)- re

25、liance on the value of the dollar + US economy- 25 years of stability of major world currencies 36pTimes of crisis, 1971-1973August 1971: US ended convertibility of dollar into gold- the ending of fixed exchange rate system- dollar devaluated in the world currency marketsLate 1971: Group of Ten met

26、in Washington for a system to keep world markets operational: 1. dollar devaluated to $38/ounce of gold;2. all other major currencies revaluated against US$ 3. allowed to vary from fixed parity rates (固定匯率平價(jià)） by +/- 2.25%37Actual performance of the attempted system:pCurrencies surpassing the deviati

27、on limits; pRevaluation occurring more frequently;pInternational monetary system falling into chaos;pWorld currency trading nearly coming to a halt in March 1973;1.The currency markets closed for 2 weeks.38March 1973: major currencies began to float in value when the markets reopenedJanuary 1976: Gr

28、oup of Ten met in Jamaica The Jamaica Agreement: official recognition - the worlds currencies no longer fixed in value 39pFloating exchange rates, 1973-presentFloatation of major currencies in value (-) problems for world trade and commerce: risks(+) indicating true value of a currency in the market

29、 - governments unable to control the value of its currency - some currency-value management tools for governments to take: 40pBy direct intervention - often used in 1970s- by buying or selling its own currency with its reserves of other major currencies. - effective when its reserves could match the

30、 volume of currency trading - the primary problem: maintaining adequate foreign exchange reserves 412. By altering economic variables: - began to be adopted in 1980s- often altering interest rates- to alter the motivation & expectation for capital movements and currency exchange; Eg. During peri

31、ods of relatively low inflation,if raising domestic interest rates:- attract capital from abroad - upside effect- possibly slow domestic economy - downside- choose an external economic policy action ? Or:a domestic economic policy action ?423. By coordinated intervention (p206)- a simultaneous inter

32、vention by central banks of major nations in the currency markets- the Plaza Agreement a successful case- 1980-1985: dramatic rise of USD in value - Group of Five met in NY in September 1985 and reached agreement- Central banks of Japan, Germany, US intervening together to push the value of USD down

33、43IV. International Money MarketspConcept of money market and international money market pEurocurrency (market)pEurocurrency interest ratespLinking Eurocurrency interest rates and exchange rates44VII. International Security MarketspBanks vs International security markets pInternational bond marketspInternational equity markets45pBanks vs international security marketsBanks: - continue to provide a large portion of international financial needs Internat