匯率與國(guó)際收支完整

1、1Exchange Rates, The Balance of Payments, and Trade Deficits2The Purpose Of This Lesson Is to explain how exchange rates and our international monetary system work and illustrate how fiscal and monetary policies may-or may not-be used in a global economy.3All That Has ChangedBILLIONS(1990 $)0200400-

2、200-400-6001982198819831984198519861987198919901995Americas Net ExportsBeginning in the early 1980s, America began running huge trade deficits, and, over the years, these trade deficits have led to an accumulated net foreign debt of over $500 billion dollars.4Is This A Problem? To many observers, Am

3、ericas chronic trade deficits are every bit as dangerous as its chronic budget deficits. These “trade deficit hawks” warn that America is being forced to sell off its land and its factories - and its future - to finance these deficits. 5The Trade Deficit Doves Others, however, see the trade deficits

4、 simply as an opportunity to buy inexpensive foreign goods and enjoy a higher standard of living. These “trade deficit doves” argue that if foreign countries sell us cheap goods, we should buy and enjoy them and not try to erect豎起建立 protectionist trade barriers.6In This Lesson Examine the scope of t

5、he trade deficit problem. Discuss the economic basis for international trade and learn some “balance of payments” accounting. Describe how exchange rates work and how the international monetary system is structured.7In This Lesson Impacts of domestic fiscal and monetary policies on foreign capital m

6、arkets and the trade deficit. Understand the important link between the budget and trade deficits and why it is important for nations to coordinate their fiscal and monetary policies in a global economy.8Open Economies An economy that engages in international trade is called an open economy. A usefu

7、l measure of such openness is the “trade share”-the ratio of a countrys exports or imports to its GDP.91011 開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)和封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)的最大區(qū)別在于，在開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中，在任何一個(gè)既定年份中，支出無(wú)須等于物品和勞務(wù)的產(chǎn)出。一國(guó)可以通過(guò)向國(guó)外借貸使支出大于生產(chǎn)，或者可以使支出小于生產(chǎn)，并把差額貸給外國(guó)人。 對(duì)這一問(wèn)題的理解請(qǐng)結(jié)合國(guó)民收入核算理論中的凈出口概念。 Y=C+I+G+NX S-I=NX NX是貿(mào)易余額，S-I是國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄與國(guó)內(nèi)投資的差額，也可以說(shuō)是國(guó)外凈投資額。它等于國(guó)內(nèi)居民貸款給國(guó)外的量減去外

8、國(guó)人貸款給我們的量。 恒等式表明國(guó)外凈投資等于貿(mào)易余額。 如果S-I和NX是正的，我們有貿(mào)易盈余，在這種情況下，我們?cè)谑澜缃鹑谑袌?chǎng)上是凈債權(quán)人。如果是負(fù)的，我們有貿(mào)易赤字，在國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)上是債務(wù)人。如果是零，說(shuō)明存在貿(mào)易平衡。 上面的恒等式表明，國(guó)際間為資本積累籌資的資金流動(dòng)和國(guó)際間物品與勞務(wù)的流動(dòng)是同一枚硬幣的兩面。12小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中的儲(chǔ)蓄與投資 資本流動(dòng)與世界利率 小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)是指這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)市場(chǎng)的一小部分，從而其本身對(duì)世界利率的影響是微不足道的。因此世界利率必定等于其本國(guó)利率。 假定： Y=Y*=F(K,L) C=C(Y-T) I=I(r) 則有NX=Y-C-G-I=S-I(r*)

9、13 上式說(shuō)明了儲(chǔ)蓄、投資及貿(mào)易余額的決定：儲(chǔ)蓄取決于財(cái)政政策，降低政府購(gòu)買G或者提高稅收T都增加了國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄。投資取決于世界利率r*。 貿(mào)易余額是在世界利率時(shí)投資和儲(chǔ)蓄的差額決定的。 在一個(gè)封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)中，實(shí)際利率的調(diào)整使得儲(chǔ)蓄與投資均衡，在一個(gè)小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中，利率由世界市場(chǎng)決定，世界利率決定的儲(chǔ)蓄與投資的差額，決定了貿(mào)易盈余的大小。14I,Srr*rI(r)SNX世界利率經(jīng)濟(jì)封閉時(shí)的利率貿(mào)易盈余小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中的儲(chǔ)蓄與投資當(dāng)國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄低于國(guó)內(nèi)投資時(shí)，國(guó)內(nèi)投資者向國(guó)外借貸，當(dāng)儲(chǔ)蓄大于投資時(shí)，余量貸給其他國(guó)家。是什么機(jī)制使得國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)和國(guó)際物品流動(dòng)相一致？15政策如何影響貿(mào)易余額 假設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)已開(kāi)始處于貿(mào)

10、易平衡狀態(tài)，NX等于0。 國(guó)內(nèi)財(cái)政政策變動(dòng)的影響 政府?dāng)U大支出或者實(shí)施減稅政策使得貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)赤字。 政府減少支出或者增稅，使得貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)盈余。16I,Srr*I(r)S1NX小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中的國(guó)內(nèi)財(cái)政擴(kuò)張S2初始的貿(mào)易平衡因?yàn)樨?cái)政政策擴(kuò)張減少了儲(chǔ)蓄從而出現(xiàn)了貿(mào)易赤字17 國(guó)外的財(cái)政政策影響 國(guó)外財(cái)政擴(kuò)張（大國(guó)）引起世界利率上升引起小國(guó)的貿(mào)易盈余。 投資需求的移動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的影響 投資需求外移，引起貿(mào)易赤字。18I,Srr*2r*1I(r)SNX世界利率貿(mào)易盈余小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中國(guó)外的財(cái)政擴(kuò)張國(guó)外財(cái)政擴(kuò)張達(dá)到足以影響世界儲(chǔ)蓄和投資使得世界利率上升，較高的世界利率減少了這個(gè)小型經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)家的投資，引起貿(mào)易盈余。19I

11、,Srr*I(r)1S小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中的儲(chǔ)蓄與投資I(r)2投資曲線外移增加了確定利率狀態(tài)下的投資量，投資大于儲(chǔ)蓄，該經(jīng)濟(jì)要從國(guó)外借貸，有貿(mào)易赤字。20匯率 名義與實(shí)際匯率 名義匯率是指兩個(gè)國(guó)家通貨的相對(duì)價(jià)格。21Exchange Rates The rate at which one nations currency can be traded for another nations currency.22Foreign Exchange RatesDollarFrancMarkYen198519952324Different Rates Of Growth If, for example,

12、the U.S. gross domestic product is growing faster than the German GDP, the U.S. dollar will depreciate relative to the German mark. This is precisely what happened in the early 1990s when the U.S. economy was recovering faster than the economies of Europe. 25An Income Effect Through an “income effec

13、t” that we shall discuss further below, the U.S. recovery attracted additional European imports while exports to the sluggish European economies stagnated. This, in turn, led to a surplus of dollars relative to the European currencies and the dollars value declined.26A Change In Relative Interest Ra

14、tes When U.S. interest rates rise relative to British interest rates, the dollar will likewise appreciate relative to the British pound. The reason: higher U.S. interest rates will attract relatively more British investment. 27In Order To Invest In America The British must first buy dollars with the

15、ir pounds. This drives the value of the dollar up relative to the pound. This “interest rate” effect has played a key role in driving U.S. trade deficits. 28Different Rates Of Inflation If, for example, the rate of inflation in Canada is higher than in Germany, the Canadian dollar will depreciate re

16、lative to the German mark. This is because exchange rates in the currency markets reflect real price differences in the goods markets. 29Inflation & Exchange Rates Thus, if inflation raises the actual or nominal price of, say, an auto made in Canada relative to the nominal price of an identical

17、auto made in Germany, there must be a corresponding adjustment in the exchange rate so that the real, inflation-adjusted prices of the two autos stay the same. 30 As we discuss the structure of the international monetary system, we shall see how differing rates of inflation played a key role in the

18、downfall of the so-called “gold standard” a key linchpin關(guān)鍵 of the international monetary system for over sixty years.31 The intersection of the demand for pounds D1 and the supply of pounds S1 determine the equilibrium exchange rate. What is it?32 Suppose that there were a major recession in the Uni

19、ted States. What would happen to the demand for dollars and the exchange rate?33 Suppose real interest rates rise in the U.S. What would happen now in the figure?34 A rise in relative real interest rates in the U.S. would attract more pounds into currency markets. British investors will attempt to t

20、rade their pounds for dollars so they can shift their investments to the U.S.35 實(shí)際匯率是兩國(guó)物品的相對(duì)價(jià)格。有時(shí)也被稱為貿(mào)易條件。它表明我們按什么比率用一國(guó)的物品交換另一國(guó)的物品。 如果實(shí)際匯率高，外國(guó)物品就相對(duì)便宜，本國(guó)物品相對(duì)昂貴。如果實(shí)際匯率低，外國(guó)物品就相對(duì)昂貴，國(guó)內(nèi)物品相對(duì)便宜。）（物價(jià)水平比率名義匯率實(shí)際匯率國(guó)外物品價(jià)格國(guó)內(nèi)物品價(jià)格名義匯率實(shí)際匯率pp /36 實(shí)際匯率與貿(mào)易余額 如果實(shí)際匯率較低，意味著國(guó)內(nèi)物品相對(duì)便宜，所以國(guó)內(nèi)居民將減少購(gòu)買國(guó)外產(chǎn)品，增大購(gòu)買國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)品，國(guó)外居民增大對(duì)外國(guó)產(chǎn)品的購(gòu)買，

21、減少本國(guó)產(chǎn)品購(gòu)買，因此對(duì)匯率較低國(guó)家的凈出口需求量將增大。 如果實(shí)際匯率提高，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)相反的情況。37實(shí)際匯率的決定因素 實(shí)際匯率與凈出口相關(guān)，當(dāng)實(shí)際匯率低時(shí)，國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)品相對(duì)于國(guó)外產(chǎn)品較為便宜。 貿(mào)易余額必須等于國(guó)外凈投資，國(guó)外凈投資又等于儲(chǔ)蓄減投資。儲(chǔ)蓄由消費(fèi)函數(shù)和財(cái)政政策固定，投資又投資函數(shù)和世界利率所固定。38NX()S-I如何決定實(shí)際匯率實(shí)際匯率是由代表儲(chǔ)蓄減投資的垂直線和向右下方傾斜的凈出口曲線交點(diǎn)決定的。在這個(gè)交點(diǎn)上，用于國(guó)外凈投資的貨幣供給量等于物品與勞務(wù)凈出口的貨幣需求量。39政策如何影響實(shí)際匯率 國(guó)內(nèi)財(cái)政政策 政府通過(guò)增加政府購(gòu)買和減稅減少國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄，使得NX減少，引起貿(mào)易赤字。

22、 國(guó)外財(cái)政政策的影響 如果國(guó)外政府增加政府購(gòu)買或者減稅，降低了世界儲(chǔ)蓄并使得世界利率上升，減少了國(guó)內(nèi)投資，增加了S-I，從而增大了NX，引起貿(mào)易盈余。 投資需求移動(dòng) 投資需求擴(kuò)大，在既定利率水平下，使得投資需求擴(kuò)大，S-I和NX減少，引起貿(mào)易赤字。40NX()S1-I1凈出口2S2-I儲(chǔ)蓄減少使得貨幣供給減少實(shí)際匯率上升凈出口減少國(guó)內(nèi)擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策對(duì)實(shí)際匯率的影響41NX()S-I(r2*)2凈出口1S-I(r1*)世界利率上升減少了投資，增加了貨幣供給實(shí)際匯率下降凈出口增加國(guó)外擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策對(duì)實(shí)際匯率的影響42NX()S-I11凈出口2S-I2投資增加使得貨幣供給減少實(shí)際匯率上升凈出口減少投資需求增加對(duì)實(shí)際匯率的影響43貿(mào)易政策的影響 貿(mào)易政策是直接影響物品與勞務(wù)進(jìn)出口的宏觀政策工具。 大多數(shù)貿(mào)易政策表現(xiàn)為保護(hù)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)免受國(guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的傾向性，具體可以表現(xiàn)為關(guān)稅壁壘、數(shù)量限制以及非關(guān)稅壁壘等。 保護(hù)主義貿(mào)易政策的結(jié)果是實(shí)際匯率的提高，但是不會(huì)有均衡的進(jìn)出口水平變動(dòng)。因?yàn)楸Ｗo(hù)主義政策沒(méi)有改變儲(chǔ)蓄和投資，所引起的凈出口曲線移動(dòng)，只帶來(lái)了實(shí)際匯率的變動(dòng)，卻沒(méi)有均衡凈出口的變動(dòng)。44NX()1S-I1凈出口2實(shí)際匯