計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)通貨膨脹影響因素分析

1、 計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)通貨膨脹影響因素分析 一問題的提出最近幾年，國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)水平飛速上漲，物價(jià)的上漲讓居民感到越來越大的壓力，影響了居民的正常生活和整個(gè)社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定，也帶給政府很大的壓力和負(fù)面影響。通貨膨脹是不能避免的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象，但是必須得盡力減小通貨膨脹對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊，所以找出這些通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生的因素是很有必要的。二理論綜述：通貨膨脹的含義及分類：指因貨幣供給大于貨幣實(shí)際需求，也即現(xiàn)實(shí)購(gòu)買力大于產(chǎn)出供給，導(dǎo)致貨幣貶值，而引起的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)物價(jià)持續(xù)而普遍地上漲現(xiàn)象。其實(shí)質(zhì)是社會(huì)總需求大于社會(huì)總供給 （供遠(yuǎn)小于求）。紙幣、含金量低的鑄幣、信用貨幣，過度發(fā)行都會(huì)導(dǎo)致通脹。 通貨膨脹可分為以下幾種類型：1.按發(fā)生原因分需

2、求拉動(dòng)型?？傂枨筮^度增長(zhǎng)引起的通貨膨脹。成本推進(jìn)型。由于工會(huì)力量或行為壟斷引起工資水平或利潤(rùn)水平的提高超過物價(jià)上漲水平而推動(dòng)通貨膨脹。結(jié)構(gòu)型。由于部門性經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)不均衡引起的通貨膨脹。混合型。需求、成本和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)共同作用引起的通貨膨脹。財(cái)政赤字型。因財(cái)政出現(xiàn)巨額赤字而濫發(fā)貨幣引起的通貨膨脹。信用擴(kuò)張型。指由于信用擴(kuò)張，即由于貸款沒有相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)保證，形成信用過度創(chuàng)造而引起的通貨膨脹。國(guó)際傳播型。又稱輸入型，指由于進(jìn)口商品的物價(jià)上升，費(fèi)用增加而引起的通貨膨脹。2.按表現(xiàn)狀態(tài)劃分開放型。也稱公開的通貨膨脹，即物價(jià)可隨貨幣供給量的變化而自由浮動(dòng)。抑制型。也稱隱蔽的通貨膨脹，即國(guó)家控制物價(jià)，主要消費(fèi)品

3、價(jià)格基本保持人為平衡，但表現(xiàn)為市場(chǎng)商品供應(yīng)緊張、憑證限量供應(yīng)商品、變相漲價(jià)、黑市活躍、商品走后門等的一種隱蔽性的一般物價(jià)水平普遍上漲的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象。3.按通貨膨脹程度劃分爬行式。又稱溫和的通貨膨脹，即允許物價(jià)水平每年按一定的比率緩慢而持續(xù)上升的一種通貨膨脹。跑馬式。又稱小跑式通貨膨脹，即通貨膨脹率達(dá)到兩位數(shù)字，在這種情況下，人們對(duì)通貨膨脹有明顯感覺，不愿保存貨幣，搶購(gòu)商品，用以保值。飚升式。又稱惡性通貨膨脹，即貨幣急劇貶值，物價(jià)指數(shù)甚至可達(dá)到天文數(shù)字。（二）通貨膨脹的衡量指標(biāo)1.生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù) (PPI)生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù) (Producer Price Index)，是衡量制造商和農(nóng)場(chǎng)主向商店出售商

4、品的價(jià)格指數(shù)。它主要反映生產(chǎn)資料的價(jià)格變化狀況，用于衡量各種商品在不同生產(chǎn)階段的成本價(jià)格變化情況2消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù) (CPI)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(Consumer Price Index)，是對(duì)一個(gè)固定的消費(fèi)品籃子價(jià)格的衡量，主要反映消費(fèi)者支付商品和勞務(wù)的價(jià)格變化情況，也是一種度量通貨膨脹水平的工具，以百分比變化為表達(dá)形式。3.零售物價(jià)指數(shù) (RPI)零售物價(jià)指數(shù)(Retail Price Index)，是指以現(xiàn)金或信用卡形式支付的零售商品的價(jià)格指數(shù)。美國(guó)商務(wù)部每個(gè)月對(duì)全國(guó)范圍的零售商品抽樣調(diào)查，包括家具、電器、超級(jí)市場(chǎng)售賣品、醫(yī)藥等，不過各種服務(wù)業(yè)消費(fèi)則不包括在內(nèi)。（三）通貨膨脹的主要影響因素&#

5、160;1、固定資產(chǎn)投資總額。我國(guó)當(dāng)前的總需求增長(zhǎng)較快，主要是由投資拉動(dòng)的，而其中政府主導(dǎo)的投資拉動(dòng)作用最明顯。我國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)膨脹主要又表現(xiàn)為一般加工工業(yè)投資增長(zhǎng)過快，這就造成投資結(jié)構(gòu)向加工工業(yè)和非生產(chǎn)性建設(shè)傾斜，造成能源、原材料的供應(yīng)和交通運(yùn)輸極度緊張，增加物價(jià)上漲的壓力。2、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)（GDP）。經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)也會(huì)導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)了對(duì)貨幣的需求就會(huì)增加，貨幣的供給也會(huì)相應(yīng)的增加，所以會(huì)給通脹埋下一定的隱患。 3、貨幣發(fā)行量（M2）。為了拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需，國(guó)家有時(shí)會(huì)采取適度的貨幣擴(kuò)張政策，貨幣超量供應(yīng)會(huì)使市場(chǎng)購(gòu)買力大增，此時(shí)，如果供應(yīng)量不能滿足增加的需求量，市場(chǎng)只有漲價(jià)，這是由價(jià)值規(guī)律決定的

6、。 4、外匯儲(chǔ)備。外債負(fù)擔(dān)過重、外貿(mào)逆差過大以及國(guó)際市場(chǎng)價(jià)格與國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格相差懸殊可能引起通貨膨脹。5、上一期的零售物價(jià)指數(shù)。人們往往會(huì)根據(jù)上一期的物價(jià)指數(shù)來制定自己當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)計(jì)劃，而且由于物價(jià)指數(shù)本身存在一定的滯后性，所以它會(huì)對(duì)該期的通脹造成一定的影響。三模型設(shè)定由于固定資產(chǎn)投資、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣發(fā)行量和外匯儲(chǔ)備這四個(gè)因素對(duì)物價(jià)的影響具有明顯的滯后性，因此模型分析時(shí)均采用滯后一期的數(shù)據(jù)。 假設(shè)采用模型：Y=1+2X2+3X3+4X4+5X5+6X6 其中，Y表示商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)RPI，X2表示固定資產(chǎn)投資總額，X3表示國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP，X4表示國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣發(fā)

7、行量M2，X5表示我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備，X6表示上一期物價(jià)指數(shù)。 我們通過對(duì)該模型的回歸分析，可以得出各個(gè)變量與我國(guó)通貨膨脹程度的變動(dòng)關(guān)系。四數(shù)據(jù)的收集通貨膨脹程度模型的時(shí)間序列表年份RPII（-1）GDP(-1)M(-1)F(-1)RPI(-1)1992112.814860.31961.12299.96127.081110.721993114.515301.821230.422676.94169.861112.811994117.715957.411430.113193.57189.012114.521995128.117206.731832.914442.88182.21117.7219

8、96135.818989.122543.215198.9126.441128.111997145.7110201.413210.626720.9120.721135.811998172.7111954.513791.718330.9129.232145.721999203.4114922.314753.82100099.633.721172.722000207.7116917.814410.4211949.6255.52203.412001213.7118598.414517.115293.42110.931207.7212002225.2121665.515594.5119349.92217

9、.122213.712003254.9226651.928080.1225402.22194.433225.222004310.2134560.5213072.3134879.81211.992254.912005356.1246670317042.1146923.51516.21310.222006377.8257494.9220019.3160750.51735.972356.112007380.8166850.5122913.5176094.921050.291377.822008370.9373142.7124941.1190995.331398.91380.812009359.827

10、6967.2228406.21104498.51449.63370.922010354.4180579.4129854.71119897.91546.752359.81五（多元線性回歸）模型的估計(jì)與調(diào)整1.估計(jì)參數(shù)模型的擬合檢驗(yàn)用Eviews計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析軟件 我們可以得到如下回歸分析結(jié)果：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/19/13 Time: 22:22Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-Statisti

11、cProb.  C10.022438.3382791.2019780.2508X22.86E-052.05E-051.3960840.1861X30.0057520.0012944.4440920.0007X48.25E-058.69E-050.9498420.3595X5-0.1119840.014623-7.6579680.0000X60.9306750.06858813.569140.0000R-squared0.996214    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.99

12、4757    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression7.419261    Akaike info criterion7.098125Sum squared resid715.5906    Schwarz criterion7.396369Log likelihood-61.43219    Hannan-Quinn criter.7.148600F-statistic684.088

13、7    Durbin-Watson stat1.951189Prob(F-statistic)0.000000根據(jù)表中數(shù)據(jù)，模型估計(jì)的結(jié)果為Y=10.35419+2.86E-05X2+0.006585 X3+8.25E-05X4-0.119156 X5+0.924734 X6（8.338279）（2.05E-05）（0.001294）（8.69E-05）（0.014623）（0.068588）t=（1.201978）（1.396084）（4.444092）（0.949842）（-7.657968）（13.56914）R2=

14、0.9962 Adjusted R-squared=0.9948    F=684.0887六（多元線性回歸）模型檢驗(yàn)1.經(jīng)濟(jì)意義檢測(cè)模型估計(jì)結(jié)果說明，在假定其他定量不變的情況下，當(dāng)年固定資產(chǎn)投資總額每增加1，商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)2.86E-05;在假定其他定量不變的情況下，當(dāng)年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增加1，商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)0.005752;在假定其他定量不變的情況下，國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣發(fā)行量增加1，商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)8.25E-05;在假定其他定量不變的情況下，我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備增加1，商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)就會(huì)減少0.111984;在假定其他定量不變的情

15、況下，上一期物價(jià)指數(shù)增加1，商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)就會(huì)增加0.930675。這與理論分析和經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷相一致。2.統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn) 1）擬合優(yōu)度：由表中數(shù)據(jù)可以得到： R²=0.9955，修正的可決系數(shù)為： 【R²】=0.9948,這說明模型對(duì)樣本的擬合很好。2）F檢驗(yàn)：針對(duì)H0：2=3=4=5=6=0，給定顯著性水平=0.05，查t分布表，在自由度為k-1=4,n-k=14的臨界值F(4,14)=5.885。由表中得到F=684.0887,由于F=684.0887> F(4,14)=5.885,應(yīng)拒絕原假設(shè)H0：2=3=4=5=6=0.說明回歸方程顯著，即“固定資產(chǎn)投資總額”、“國(guó)內(nèi)

16、生產(chǎn)總值”、“國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣發(fā)行量”、“我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備”、“上一期物價(jià)指數(shù)”等變量聯(lián)合起來確實(shí)對(duì)“商品零售物價(jià)”有顯著影響。3）t檢驗(yàn)：分別針對(duì)H0：）,給定顯著性水平=0.05，查t分布表可得自由度為n-k=13臨界值t/2（n-k）=2.160，由表中數(shù)據(jù)可得，與*1.*2.*3.*4.*5.*6對(duì)應(yīng)的t統(tǒng)計(jì)量分別為1.201978. 1.396084.4.444092.0.949842.-7.657968.13.56914,*3.*5.*6絕對(duì)值大于t/2（n-k）=2.160，這說明這三個(gè)都應(yīng)當(dāng)拒絕H0: j=0（j=1.2.3.4.5.6）,也就是說，當(dāng)在其他解釋變量不變的情況下，解釋變量“

17、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值”（X2）、“我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備”（X3）、“上一期物價(jià)指數(shù)”（X5）、“上一期物價(jià)指數(shù)”（X6）分別對(duì)被解釋變量“商品零售物價(jià)”Y都有顯著影響。七（多重共線性）模型的估計(jì)與調(diào)整OLS回歸結(jié)果Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 12:29Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C10.022438.3382791.2019780.2508X22

18、.86E-052.05E-051.3960840.1861X30.0057520.0012944.4440920.0007X48.25E-058.69E-050.9498420.3595X5-0.1119840.014623-7.6579680.0000X60.9306750.06858813.569140.0000R-squared0.996214    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.994757    S.D. dependent var102.46

19、83S.E. of regression7.419261    Akaike info criterion7.098125Sum squared resid715.5906    Schwarz criterion7.396369Log likelihood-61.43219    Hannan-Quinn criter.7.148600F-statistic684.0887    Durbin-Watson stat1.951189P

20、rob(F-statistic)0.000000由此可見，該模型R²=0.9962，【R²】=0.9948可決系數(shù)很高，F(xiàn)檢驗(yàn)值684.0887，明顯顯著。但是當(dāng)=0.05時(shí)t/2（n-k）=t0.025（19-6）=2.160，不僅X2.X4系數(shù)的t檢驗(yàn)不明顯，而且X5系數(shù)的符號(hào)與預(yù)期的相反，這表明可能存在嚴(yán)重的多重共線性。計(jì)算各解釋變量的相關(guān)系數(shù)，選擇X2.X3.X4.X5.X6數(shù)據(jù)，得到相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣X2X3X4X5X6X210.40679516164709530.26748714192149990.2942304852436413X30.406795161647095

21、310.86055909456171080.96426868737991140.9602964165933463X40.26748714192149990.86055909456171081X50.29423048524364130.964268687379911410.8932454297110409X60.96029641659334630.89324542971104091由相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣可以看出，個(gè)解釋變量相互之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)較高，證明確實(shí)存在嚴(yán)重共線性。八（多重共線性）修正多重共線性才用逐步回歸的辦法，去檢驗(yàn)和解決多重共線性問題，分別做Y對(duì)X2.X3.X4.X5.X6的一元回歸，結(jié)果如圖

22、所示Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:05Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C212.735923.652178.9943500.0000X20.0004960.0002072.3900290.0287R-squared0.251505    Mean dependent var239.0763A

23、djusted R-squared0.207476    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression91.22117    Akaike info criterion11.96375Sum squared resid141462.1    Schwarz criterion12.06317Log likelihood-111.6556    Hannan-Quinn criter.11.98

24、058F-statistic5.712239    Durbin-Watson stat0.596967Prob(F-statistic)0.028699Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:06Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C140.378213.0818910.730730.0000X30.0

25、094420.00091210.348060.0000R-squared0.862994    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.854935    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression39.02748    Akaike info criterion10.26571Sum squared resid25893.45    Sc

26、hwarz criterion10.36512Log likelihood-95.52424    Hannan-Quinn criter.10.28253F-statistic107.0824    Durbin-Watson stat0.193524Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:06Sample: 1992 2010Included observations:

27、19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C161.888821.222297.6282420.0000X40.0019850.0003845.1699190.0001R-squared0.611234    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.588365    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression65.74239 

28、60;  Akaike info criterion11.30867Sum squared resid73475.05    Schwarz criterion11.40808Log likelihood-105.4323    Hannan-Quinn criter.11.32549F-statistic26.72806    Durbin-Watson stat0.857279Prob(F-statistic)0.000077Dependent Var

29、iable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:06Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C174.709017.549539.9551960.0000X50.1554760.0261915.9362790.0000R-squared0.674575    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squar

30、ed0.655433    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression60.14873    Akaike info criterion11.13082Sum squared resid61503.79    Schwarz criterion11.23023Log likelihood-103.7428    Hannan-Quinn criter.11.14764F-statistic3

31、5.23941    Durbin-Watson stat0.213808Prob(F-statistic)0.000016Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:07Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C16.3105110.456851.5597910.1372X60.9845910.04229023

32、.281640.0000R-squared0.969590    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.967802    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression18.38680    Akaike info criterion8.760444Sum squared resid5747.264    Schwarz criterion

33、8.859858Log likelihood-81.22421    Hannan-Quinn criter.8.777269F-statistic542.0349    Durbin-Watson stat0.567808Prob(F-statistic)0.000000 一元回歸結(jié)果變量 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6參數(shù)估計(jì)值 0.000496 0.009442 0.001985 0.155476 0.984591t 統(tǒng)計(jì)值 2.390029 10.34806 5.169919 5.93627 23.28164

34、R² 0.251505 0.862994 0.611234 0.674575 0.969590【 R²】 0.207476 0.854935 0.588365 0.655433 0.967802其中，加入X6的方程【R²】最大，以X6為基礎(chǔ)，順次加入其他變量逐步回歸，結(jié)果如下圖所示：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:43Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-St

35、atisticProb.  C20.352459.8505052.0661330.0554X28.58E-054.29E-051.9998150.0628X60.9465880.04337521.823340.0000R-squared0.975671    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.972630    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression16.95211  

36、  Akaike info criterion8.642600Sum squared resid4597.982    Schwarz criterion8.791722Log likelihood-79.10470    Hannan-Quinn criter.8.667838F-statistic320.8319    Durbin-Watson stat1.022770Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Dependent Variab

37、le: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:43Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-7.37620819.19583-0.3842610.7058X3-0.0021690.001493-1.4527660.1656X61.1894830.1468678.0990310.0000R-squared0.973134    Mean depe

38、ndent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.969776    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression17.81415    Akaike info criterion8.741802Sum squared resid5077.501    Schwarz criterion8.890924Log likelihood-80.04712    Hannan-

39、Quinn criter.8.767039F-statistic289.7770    Durbin-Watson stat0.837349Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 13:44Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C12.9308712.331781

40、.0485810.3100X4-0.0001020.000186-0.5480090.5912X61.0170650.07332613.870430.0000R-squared0.970151    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.966420    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression18.77728    Akaike info criterion8.84711

41、1Sum squared resid5641.378    Schwarz criterion8.996233Log likelihood-81.04756    Hannan-Quinn criter.8.872349F-statistic260.0131    Durbin-Watson stat0.709531Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13

42、 Time: 13:44Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-19.3336610.79756-1.7905580.0923X5-0.0545420.012290-4.4378700.0004X61.2419350.06491819.130690.0000R-squared0.986369    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.984

43、665    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression12.68904    Akaike info criterion8.063294Sum squared resid2576.188    Schwarz criterion8.212415Log likelihood-73.60129    Hannan-Quinn criter.8.088531F-statistic578.8994

44、    Durbin-Watson stat1.148724Prob(F-statistic)0.000000 加入新變量的回歸結(jié)果變量 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 【R² 】X6.X2 8.58E-0.5 0.946588 0.972630 (1.999815) （21.82334）X6.X3 -0.002169 1.189483 0.969776 （-1.452766） （8.099031）X6.X4 -0.000102 1.017065 0.966420 （-0.548009） （13.87043）X6.X5 -0.0548009 1.

45、241935 0.984665（-4.437870）（19.13096）經(jīng)比較，新加入X5的方程【R²】=0.984665，改進(jìn)最大，而且各參數(shù)的t檢驗(yàn)顯著，選擇保留X5,再加入其他新變量逐步回歸，結(jié)果如下圖所示：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 14:07Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-13.4681610.68788-1.

46、2601330.2269X61.1939620.06686817.855600.0000X5-0.0495100.011907-4.1582480.0008X25.47E-053.11E-051.7584740.0990R-squared0.988699    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.986439    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression11.93281   

47、60;Akaike info criterion7.981124Sum squared resid2135.879    Schwarz criterion8.179954Log likelihood-71.82068    Hannan-Quinn criter.8.014774F-statistic437.4300    Durbin-Watson stat1.458330Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Dependent Variable: YMeth

48、od: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 14:07Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C10.354198.3819621.2352940.2357X60.9247340.06934313.335640.0000X5-0.1191560.013824-8.6193630.0000X30.0065850.0011965.5050050.0001R-squared0.995487  

49、  Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.994584    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression7.540763    Akaike info criterion7.063188Sum squared resid852.9466    Schwarz criterion7.262017Log likelihood-63.10028 

50、0;  Hannan-Quinn criter.7.096838F-statistic1102.897    Durbin-Watson stat2.201400Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/20/13 Time: 14:08Sample: 1992 2010Included observations: 19VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. 

51、60;C-18.5134110.53433-1.7574360.0992X61.2211830.06503318.777770.0000X5-0.0627860.013407-4.6829510.0003X40.0001870.0001371.3654460.1922R-squared0.987876    Mean dependent var239.0763Adjusted R-squared0.985451    S.D. dependent var102.4683S.E. of regression12.35955    Akaike info criterion8.051399Sum squared resid2291.378    Schwarz criterion8.250229Log likelihood-72.48829    Hannan-Quinn criter.8.085049F-statistic407.