關于G20峰會的文章及其翻譯.doc

The G20 outcome is better than nothing, but can the IMF save the world?WHEN an infamous summit of world powers in London ended in 1933, such was the mood of protectionist acrimony that many argued it would have been better if the meeting had not been held at all. At times in the run up to the G20 gathering of world leaders in London on Thursday April 2nd it looked as if history might be repeated. But the leaders have shown some grit, and some ingenuity in finding money when little is about. Many holes can be picked in their pledges to reflate the world economy and re-regulate global finance. But, at the very least, it was better that they met than not.The centerpiece of the leaders plan is, conveniently, the IMF, which they believe can add an extra $1 trillion in funding to the world economy without the risk of ballooning national budgets, or obstruction from national politicians. That financial conjuring trick gets the G20 out of a bind. Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, has made much of $5 trillion in public spending that governments around the world have promised to help shunt their economies out of recession in 2009-10. But big spenders such as America and Britain are up against their limits and fiscal hawks such as Germany are stubbornly convinced they have done enough.That leaves the IMF as pump-primer of last resort, although not all of the funding promises made on Thursday were new. Japan and the European Union had already agreed to put $100 billion each into the IMFs kitty. Rich countries such as America will provide a $500 billion credit line, known as New Arrangements to Borrow. This was trailed several weeks ago. Significantly, the IMF will print $250 billion of its own currency, known as special drawing rights, allocating sums to its members according to their quotas. It is not clear whether this can be redirected from rich countries to poor ones.This flood of extra resources, plus an enhanced oversight role the G20 has given to the fund, will be a huge turnaround for an institution whose relevance had slumped in the boom years. Now the new money must be directed to developing countries, especially in eastern Europe. Many such countries have been loth to tap the fund because of the stigma involved. A pledge by the G20 to reform the funds governance soon may convince them that the leopard has changed its spots. This week Mexico secured a $47 billion credit line with the fund, with no strings attached, which may set a trend. Eswar Prasad of the Brookings Institution believes the commitment to reform is credible. His evidence is that China has agreed to chip in $40 billion, prior to any changes to its voting power in the IMF (it has the same heft as Belgium). Others, however, remain sceptical. “This is still supply chasing demand,” says Arvind Subramanian of the Centre for Global Development.The importance of offering new sources of funds to the developing world should not be underestimated, however. By some estimates poor countries have $1.4 trillion of debts to roll over this year alone and Western creditors are hoarding their cash. These countries have far less fiscal room for manoeuvre than rich economies. They are also areas of the world where growth could rebound quite quickly, because households are not weighed down by the crushing debts typical in America and Europe. In a further fillip to many of them, the G20 agreed to ensure $250 billion in trade finance to help reboot global tradethough it was not clear how much of this was new money.As for efforts to drag the developed world out of the mire, the G20 went perhaps further than had been expected, though undoubtedly not far enough. It emphasised the problem of scrubbing toxic assets off banks balance-sheets, but gave little guidance on how banks should be forced to mark down their assets to saleable prices. (Undermining that effort, on Thursday American accounting standard-setters watered down a mark-to-market provision that would have forced banks to value their assets at market prices. The short-sighted reprieve led to a huge rally in the shares of stricken banks such as Citigroup.)It also, in a nod to strongly held German and French sentiments, called for regulation of hedge funds and other parts of the shadow banking system, a crack down on tax havens and banking secrecy, and more oversight of credit-rating agencies. There was little to suggest that one of the main causes of the crisis, incentives for banks to grow too big to fail, was being tackled.Financial markets rallied after the G20 news, though this was as much because of sprigs of good economic news emerging as the harmony that was displayed. This was despite disappointment that the European Central Bank had cut its main interest rate on Thursday, by just a quarter of a percentage point, to 1.25%. American unemployment figures on Friday, which could be shocking, may puncture some of that optimism, and should temper any temptation among G20 leaders to claim success. Their efforts to reflate the world economy may have avoided a 1930s-style depression so far. But rising joblessness and years of pain may lie ahead as banks, businesses and households in the West continue to struggle to pay down their debts.當1933年在倫敦舉行的一個臭名昭著的世界大國首腦會議結束時，貿易保護主義者非常尖銳，他們之中很多人認為該會議不舉行可能會更好。在4月2日星期四在倫敦舉行的、聚集了世界眾多領導人的G20峰會召開之前，有時候看上去這一切仿佛是歷史在重演。但是，在到處都面臨資金短缺之際，這些首腦們在尋求資金方面都展示出了一些勇氣和聰明才智。雖然在他們對世界經濟復蘇和重新規(guī)范全球金融的承諾中仍能發(fā)現(xiàn)不少漏洞，但是，至少這回，會議召開比不召開要好。這些首腦們的計劃的核心，很簡單，是IMF他們認為它可以在不增加政府預算或者繞開各國政治家的妨礙的情況下，再給世界經濟注入1萬億美元資金。這個金融戲法幫助G20脫離了困境。英國首相戈登布朗（Gordon Brown）稱，世界各國政府都已允諾在2009-2010年間的公共開支將達5萬億美元以幫助走出衰退。但是，揮金如土的美國和英國反對其限制，而財政鷹派德國則頑固地認為他們做得已經夠多了。盡管G20于周四做出的融資承諾并無新意，但是，IMF儼然成為了全球經濟信心和資本的加注器。日本和歐盟已同意分別向IMF注資1000億美元。美國等富國將根據新借款協(xié)議向IMF提供5000億美元的信貸額。這一方案早在幾周前就已有跡可循。最值得關注的是，IMF將啟動特別提款權（SDR）制度，印制價值2500億美元的國際結算貨幣，按會員國繳納的份額分配給各參加國。SDR的啟動是否能使資金從富國轉向窮國，目前尚未可知。額外資源的洪水般注入，加之G20已經強調對資金加強監(jiān)管，這將在景氣之年，給不景氣的組織機構帶來巨大的好轉。目前，這些新貨幣一定會進入發(fā)展中國家，特別是東歐國家。因為先前不好的名聲，其中許多國家已經在謹慎使用資金。G20發(fā)誓要盡快改善基金管理，使其確信“美洲獅”已經改變了做法。 本周，墨西哥已經確定470億美元的資金信用額度，無任何附加條件，它可以形成一種趨勢。美國布魯金斯學會的Eswar Prasad認為此項改革承諾是可信的，其依據是中國已經同意，在國際貨幣基金組織內投標權改變之前注入400億美元（與比利時有同等分量）。然而，其它人仍然持懷疑態(tài)度。全球發(fā)展中心的Arvind Subramanian說：“這仍然是供應鏈的追逐需求。 然而，不要低估給發(fā)展中國家提供新資金來源的重要性。據估算，貧困國家單是今年就有1.4萬億美元的債務要延期，而另一邊廂，西方債權人卻正在囤積現(xiàn)金。這些落后國家遠不如發(fā)達國家那樣有充足的財政回旋余地，但他們可能也是世界上經濟能快速復蘇的地區(qū)，因為他們的家庭不會像美國歐洲的家庭那樣受到沉重債務的拖累。為了進一步提振他們當中大部分的經濟，G20與會國同意，要確保在貿易金融中投入2500億美元以幫助振興全球貿易，盡管目前尚不清楚，這當中會有多少是新的資金。盡管肯定力度不足，但在將發(fā)達國家拖出泥潭的努力方面，G20峰會可能依然超出人們的期望。此次會議