財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表盈利預(yù)測(cè)與估值表(超級(jí)精華).xls

一、 模型構(gòu)成 1. Operating（業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)表） ：包括公司歷史業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)以及未來(lái)業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè) 2. Assumption(預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè))：包括經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)假設(shè)、營(yíng)運(yùn)資金假設(shè)、投資活動(dòng)假設(shè)、融資活動(dòng)假設(shè)、估值參數(shù)假設(shè) 3. Scenerio(情景分析)：包括情景分析假設(shè)與情景分析結(jié)果 4. D&A(折舊與攤銷預(yù)測(cè))：包括固定資產(chǎn)及折舊、無(wú)形資產(chǎn)及攤銷、長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用及攤銷的預(yù)測(cè) 5. Financing(財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用預(yù)測(cè))：包括現(xiàn)金、短期借款、利息收入、利息費(fèi)用與財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用預(yù)測(cè) 6. BS(資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表及預(yù)測(cè)) 7. IS（利潤(rùn)表及預(yù)測(cè)） 8. SCF(現(xiàn)金流量表及預(yù)測(cè)) 9. FCF（自由現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測(cè)） ：計(jì)算企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流 10. Valuation(絕對(duì)估值結(jié)果)：包括 APV WACC DDM AE EVA 估值模型，及各種估值結(jié)果的敏感性分析 11. Ratios(相關(guān)比率數(shù)據(jù)) 12. Summary(輸出結(jié)果及報(bào)表)：包括三大表以及相關(guān)比率的輸出、報(bào)告首頁(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)表 13. 原始報(bào)表由 WIND 鏈接導(dǎo)入 14. 單季度利潤(rùn)表由 WIND 鏈接導(dǎo)入 二、 使用說(shuō)明 1. 先關(guān)閉所有 EXCEL,打開(kāi) WIND，然后打開(kāi)本文件，在 Assumption 輸入所要分析的公司代碼，模型將自動(dòng)更新歷史財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù) 2. 預(yù)測(cè)公司未來(lái)業(yè)務(wù)，完成 Assumption 表格，這是模型最關(guān)鍵部分 3. 確定公司的相關(guān)假設(shè)前提，完成 Assumption 表格，具體假設(shè)參數(shù)的選取視行業(yè)與公司情況而定 4. 需要手工輸入的部分完成后，模型自動(dòng)生成預(yù)測(cè)期各年的三大表、估值結(jié)果 5. 校驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)，主頁(yè)看預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果是否合理、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表是否配平 6. Summary 表中的三大表，DCF 估值表可以直接拷貝至報(bào)告，財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)簡(jiǎn)表可直接拷貝至報(bào)告首頁(yè) 三、 注意事項(xiàng) 1. 表中藍(lán)色底的區(qū)域?yàn)樾枰斯ぽ斎氩糠?2. 注意模型中公式鏈接，以免引用混亂，盡量不要對(duì)單元格采取“拖動(dòng)”操作 3. 固定資產(chǎn)預(yù)測(cè)要注意與資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的固定資產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)匹配 4. IS 表中，股利一項(xiàng)實(shí)際為上一年的現(xiàn)金股利，上一年度利潤(rùn)分配實(shí)際在下一年發(fā)放，因此體現(xiàn)為下一年現(xiàn)金流出 一、 模型構(gòu)成 1. Operating（業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)表） ：包括公司歷史業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)以及未來(lái)業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè) 2. Assumption(預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè))：包括經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)假設(shè)、營(yíng)運(yùn)資金假設(shè)、投資活動(dòng)假設(shè)、融資活動(dòng)假設(shè)、估值參數(shù)假設(shè) 3. Scenerio(情景分析)：包括情景分析假設(shè)與情景分析結(jié)果 4. D&A(折舊與攤銷預(yù)測(cè))：包括固定資產(chǎn)及折舊、無(wú)形資產(chǎn)及攤銷、長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用及攤銷的預(yù)測(cè) 5. Financing(財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用預(yù)測(cè))：包括現(xiàn)金、短期借款、利息收入、利息費(fèi)用與財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用預(yù)測(cè) 6. BS(資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表及預(yù)測(cè)) 7. IS（利潤(rùn)表及預(yù)測(cè)） 8. SCF(現(xiàn)金流量表及預(yù)測(cè)) 9. FCF（自由現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測(cè)） ：計(jì)算企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流 10. Valuation(絕對(duì)估值結(jié)果)：包括 APV WACC DDM AE EVA 估值模型，及各種估值結(jié)果的敏感性分析 11. Ratios(相關(guān)比率數(shù)據(jù)) 12. Summary(輸出結(jié)果及報(bào)表)：包括三大表以及相關(guān)比率的輸出、報(bào)告首頁(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)表 13. 原始報(bào)表由 WIND 鏈接導(dǎo)入 14. 單季度利潤(rùn)表由 WIND 鏈接導(dǎo)入 二、 使用說(shuō)明 1. 先關(guān)閉所有 EXCEL,打開(kāi) WIND，然后打開(kāi)本文件，在 Assumption 輸入所要分析的公司代碼，模型將自動(dòng)更新歷史財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù) 2. 預(yù)測(cè)公司未來(lái)業(yè)務(wù)，完成 Assumption 表格，這是模型最關(guān)鍵部分 3. 確定公司的相關(guān)假設(shè)前提，完成 Assumption 表格，具體假設(shè)參數(shù)的選取視行業(yè)與公司情況而定 4. 需要手工輸入的部分完成后，模型自動(dòng)生成預(yù)測(cè)期各年的三大表、估值結(jié)果 5. 校驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)，主頁(yè)看預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果是否合理、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表是否配平 6. Summary 表中的三大表，DCF 估值表可以直接拷貝至報(bào)告，財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)簡(jiǎn)表可直接拷貝至報(bào)告首頁(yè) 三、 注意事項(xiàng) 1. 表中藍(lán)色底的區(qū)域?yàn)樾枰斯ぽ斎氩糠?2. 注意模型中公式鏈接，以免引用混亂，盡量不要對(duì)單元格采取“拖動(dòng)”操作 3. 固定資產(chǎn)預(yù)測(cè)要注意與資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的固定資產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)匹配 4. IS 表中，股利一項(xiàng)實(shí)際為上一年的現(xiàn)金股利，上一年度利潤(rùn)分配實(shí)際在下一年發(fā)放，因此體現(xiàn)為下一年現(xiàn)金流出 代碼代碼公司名稱公司名稱分析日期分析日期 600439.SH瑞貝卡瑞貝卡2009-10-12 1、經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)假設(shè)、經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)假設(shè)2004200520062007 營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率（YOY)50.19%8.12%40.76%15.00% 營(yíng)業(yè)成本 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入80.15%78.22%79.83%73.78% 營(yíng)業(yè)稅率0.01%0.39%0.41%0.61% 銷售費(fèi)用 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入2.36%2.50%1.09%1.39% 管理費(fèi)用 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入2.39%3.60%3.42%2.93% 實(shí)際稅率29.34%29.86%30.32%27.39% 少數(shù)股東損益/稅前利潤(rùn)0.03%0.00%0.02%0.00% 股利分配比例55.11%59.13%49.02%26.12% 2、營(yíng)運(yùn)資金假設(shè)、營(yíng)運(yùn)資金假設(shè)2004200520062007E 貨幣資金 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入15.50%42.85%33.89% 應(yīng)收帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)收入)50.9242.5646.56 其他應(yīng)收款/營(yíng)業(yè)收入0.89%0.74%0.75% 應(yīng)收票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)收入)0.000.000.00 存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)成本)256.29134.69176.74 應(yīng)付票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)成本)0.000.000.00 應(yīng)付帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)成本)43.158.8218.45 預(yù)付帳款增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)成本1.38%2.46%5.18% 預(yù)收帳款(負(fù)債)增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入0.10%0.26%-0.13% 預(yù)提費(fèi)用增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入-0.01%-0.05%0.00% 其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加0.00%3.53%0.46% 壞帳準(zhǔn)備 /應(yīng)收帳款 短期投資跌價(jià)準(zhǔn)備 歷史數(shù)據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù) 存貨跌價(jià)準(zhǔn)備(含工程虧損準(zhǔn)備) 長(zhǎng)期投資減值準(zhǔn)備 固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備 在建工程減值準(zhǔn)備 3、投資活動(dòng)假設(shè)、投資活動(dòng)假設(shè)2004200520062007 I 資本開(kāi)支資本開(kāi)支 期末固定資產(chǎn)原值22226.71 期末累計(jì)折舊3948.94 期末固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備0.00 3102.1-678.7619.90 無(wú)形資產(chǎn)投資 長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用增加 固定資產(chǎn)的折舊年限平均為15年 殘值率為5.00%年折舊率=6.33% 新增固定資產(chǎn)折舊率6.00% 現(xiàn)有無(wú)形資產(chǎn)攤銷年限為15年 新增無(wú)形資產(chǎn)攤銷年限為15年 現(xiàn)有長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用攤銷年限為10年 新增長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用攤銷年限為10年 II 金融投資及股權(quán)投資金融投資及股權(quán)投資 交易性金融資產(chǎn)投資 可供出售金融資產(chǎn)投資 持有至到期投資 長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資 投資性房地產(chǎn) 4、融資活動(dòng)假設(shè)、融資活動(dòng)假設(shè)2004200520062007 貸款貸款 銀行長(zhǎng)期貸款增加額 債券或短融債券或短融 期初余額 債券發(fā)行數(shù)量 債券償還 可轉(zhuǎn)債可轉(zhuǎn)債 期初余額 可轉(zhuǎn)換債當(dāng)期發(fā)行/(贖回） 可轉(zhuǎn)債當(dāng)期轉(zhuǎn)股 轉(zhuǎn)股價(jià)格 轉(zhuǎn)股股數(shù) 股票融資股票融資 發(fā)行股數(shù) 發(fā)行價(jià)格 發(fā)行費(fèi)用所占比例 固定資產(chǎn)投資 利率假設(shè)利率假設(shè) a、最低貨幣資金為營(yíng)業(yè)收入的15.00% b、銀行長(zhǎng)期貸款利率為5.94% c、短期貸款利率為5.30% d、現(xiàn)金存款利率為0.98% f、債券利率 e、可轉(zhuǎn)債利率 5、估值參數(shù)相關(guān)假設(shè)、估值參數(shù)相關(guān)假設(shè) 總股本61,649.25 流通B股 流通A股61,649.25 B股股價(jià) A股股價(jià)9.10匯率 無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率Rf=2.25% 目標(biāo)債務(wù)比率=45.00% Rm=12.0% 長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)率 = 2.00% e(levered)= 1.00 稅前Kd= 4.33% 稅后Kd=3.25% 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52%10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41% 70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90%63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54% 0.42%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40% 3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 10.86%20.00%20.00%20.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00%44.00%46.00%48.00%50.00% 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 27.50%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00% 24.7530.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.00 1.27%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10% 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 360.75300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 27.3022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.00 -4.59%-0.50%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00% 0.51%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 11.83%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00% 明確預(yù)測(cè)期明確預(yù)測(cè)期長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)期長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)期 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 27363.1331112.0333986.4835923.7037892.3239876.6241868.7743864.8545862.89 5134.807092.739223.1311469.7613834.5116318.3218921.6621644.7624487.74 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 6813.684000.002000.001000.002000.002000.002000.002000.002000.00 1000.001000.001000.000.001000.001000.000.001000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 流通H股 H股股價(jià) 匯率 Ve= 561008 Vd= 50693 Ke= 12.0% Ku= 11.4% WACC= 8.06% u(ulevered)= 0.94 稅率= 25% 2017E2018E 6.11%7.72% 59.33%58.67% 0.40%0.40% 3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20% 25.00%25.00% 0.00%0.00% 52.00%54.00% 2017E2018E 30.00%30.00% 30.0030.00 1.10%1.10% 0.000.00 300.00300.00 0.000.00 22.0022.00 3.00%3.00% 0.50%0.50% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 5.00%5.00% 2017E2018E 47361.9148611.42 27420.6730428.56 0.001.00 1000.001000.00 0.001000.00 0.000.00 00 00 00 00 00 2017E2018E 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 一般情景預(yù)測(cè) 營(yíng)業(yè)收入預(yù)測(cè)營(yíng)業(yè)收入預(yù)測(cè)2003200420052006 工藝發(fā)條工藝發(fā)條銷量(萬(wàn)條）600.00840.00960.001260.00 平均售價(jià)（元）63.9868.7065.9871.82 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）38,388.2457706.6663341.6190493.14 單位成本52.4958.5754.1059.77 銷售成本銷售成本31,492.4949197.6951934.2475305.32 毛利率毛利率17.96%14.75%18.01%16.78% 化纖發(fā)條化纖發(fā)條銷量(萬(wàn)條）240.00450.00500.00820.00 平均售價(jià)（元）14.8917.4515.0315.91 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）3573.297853.807513.7313045.64 單位成本9.379.249.5810.27 銷售成本銷售成本2248.964159.284789.708419.21 毛利率毛利率37.06%47.04%36.25%35.46% 女裝假發(fā)(化纖）女裝假發(fā)(化纖）銷量(萬(wàn)套）140.00210.00240.00250.00 平均售價(jià)（元）53.7047.5046.1646.13 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）7517.779974.9611078.2911532.42 單位成本34.0034.4730.4832.52 銷售成本銷售成本4759.387239.067314.248130.39 毛利率毛利率36.69%27.43%33.98%29.50% 教習(xí)頭教習(xí)頭銷量(萬(wàn)個(gè)）18.0016.0016.0016.00 平均售價(jià)（元）80.0982.9082.3887.94 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）1441.541326.351318.051406.99 單位成本68.8770.2072.1282.38 銷售成本銷售成本1239.651123.231153.861318.05 毛利率毛利率14.01%15.31%12.46%6.32% 男裝頭套男裝頭套銷量(萬(wàn)套）16.5016.0015.0025.00 平均售價(jià)（元）49.3852.4750.8471.11 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）814.83839.55762.591777.68 單位成本30.4735.0334.7730.50 銷售成本銷售成本502.77560.44521.57762.59 毛利率毛利率38.30%33.25%31.61%57.10% 人發(fā)假發(fā)人發(fā)假發(fā)銷量(萬(wàn)套） 男裝頭套并入其中平均售價(jià)（元） 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元） 單位成本 銷售成本銷售成本 毛利率毛利率 化纖發(fā)絲及阻燃纖維化纖發(fā)絲及阻燃纖維 銷量(噸） 平均售價(jià)（萬(wàn)元） 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元） 單位成本 銷售成本銷售成本 毛利率毛利率 非洲大辮非洲大辮銷量（萬(wàn)條）銷量（萬(wàn)條） 歷史數(shù)據(jù) 平均售價(jià)（萬(wàn)元） 銷售收入（萬(wàn)元）銷售收入（萬(wàn)元） 單位成本 銷售成本銷售成本 毛利率毛利率 其他業(yè)務(wù)收入其他業(yè)務(wù)收入 其他業(yè)務(wù)成本其他業(yè)務(wù)成本 營(yíng)業(yè)收入（萬(wàn)元）營(yíng)業(yè)收入（萬(wàn)元）51735.6777701.3284014.27118255.87 營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率%營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率%50.19%8.12%40.76% 營(yíng)業(yè)成本40243.2562279.7065713.6193935.56 毛利11492.4215421.6218300.6624320.31 綜合毛利率綜合毛利率22.21%19.85%21.78%20.57% 主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本預(yù)測(cè)主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本預(yù)測(cè)2003200420052006 分原料價(jià)格分原料價(jià)格 人發(fā)均價(jià)（元/千克）386.00435.00410.00460.00 化纖發(fā)絲均價(jià)（元/千克）40.0040.0041.0042.00 電均價(jià)0.300.320.340.39 煤均價(jià)220.00290.00315.00350.00 汽均價(jià)60.0065.0070.0080.00 萬(wàn)條工藝發(fā)條分原料使用量萬(wàn)條工藝發(fā)條分原料使用量 人發(fā)/千克1150.001150.001120.001100.00 電/度1800.001800.001750.001700.00 汽/立方米150.00150.00140.00135.00 萬(wàn)條工藝發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬(wàn)元）萬(wàn)條工藝發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬(wàn)元） 人發(fā)44.3950.0345.9250.60 輔助材料2.102.202.102.50 電、汽0.951.031.041.15 折舊費(fèi)1.201.201.201.20 工資及福利3.403.603.503.90 其他費(fèi)用0.450.510.340.42 合計(jì)52.4958.5754.1059.77 萬(wàn)條化纖發(fā)分原料使用量萬(wàn)條化纖發(fā)分原料使用量 化纖絲/噸1.151.151.101.10 電/度1000.001000.00900.00900.00 汽/立方米70.0070.0070.0065.00 萬(wàn)條化纖發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬(wàn)元）萬(wàn)條化纖發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬(wàn)元） 化纖絲4.604.604.514.62 輔助材料1.301.301.301.60 電、汽0.450.490.520.56 折舊費(fèi)0.500.500.500.50 工資及福利2.202.202.502.60 其他費(fèi)用0.190.150.250.39 合計(jì)9.379.249.5810.27 萬(wàn)套化纖假發(fā)分原料使用量萬(wàn)套化纖假發(fā)分原料使用量 化纖絲/噸2.402.402.302.30 電/度2000.002000.002000.002000.00 汽/立方米150.00150.00140.00140.00 萬(wàn)套化纖假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬(wàn)元）萬(wàn)套化纖假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬(wàn)元） 化纖絲9.609.609.439.66 輔助材料9.009.408.009.00 電、汽0.961.041.051.20 折舊費(fèi)4.004.002.502.50 工資及福利9.009.009.009.00 其他費(fèi)用1.441.430.501.16 合計(jì)34.0034.4730.4832.52 萬(wàn)套人發(fā)假發(fā)分原料使用量萬(wàn)套人發(fā)假發(fā)分原料使用量 人發(fā)/千克 電/度 汽/立方米 萬(wàn)套人發(fā)假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬(wàn)元）萬(wàn)套人發(fā)假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬(wàn)元） 人發(fā) 輔助材料 電、汽 折舊費(fèi) 工資及福利 其他費(fèi)用 合計(jì) 萬(wàn)個(gè)教習(xí)頭分原料使用量萬(wàn)個(gè)教習(xí)頭分原料使用量 人發(fā)/千克1250.001230.001220.001210.00 電/度2000.002000.002000.002000.00 汽/立方米120.00120.00120.00120.00 萬(wàn)個(gè)教習(xí)頭分結(jié)構(gòu)成本萬(wàn)個(gè)教習(xí)頭分結(jié)構(gòu)成本 人發(fā)48.2553.5150.0255.66 輔助材料7.006.008.0011.00 電、汽0.780.840.911.04 工資及福利7.607.008.009.00 折舊費(fèi)4.002.004.004.00 其他費(fèi)用1.240.851.191.68 合計(jì)合計(jì)68.8770.2072.1282.38 200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E 1120.001140.001260.01300.01300.01300.01300.01300.0 88.9075.7075.6079.0083.0089.0095.00100.00 99565.0486298.5695256102700107900115700123500130000 68.0457.2059.7061.6063.2064.6066.0067.60 76203.2365208.9275,222.0080,080.0082,160.0083,980.0085,800.0087,880.00 23.46%24.44%21.03%22.03%23.86%27.42%30.53%32.40% 980.001320.001560.001880.002000.002240.002500.002720.00 16.2918.6517.0017.5018.0018.2018.4018.60 15968.0724624.1526520.0032900.0036000.0040768.0046000.0050592.00 9.889.859.508.408.408.408.408.40 9680.5713005.6814820.0015792.0016800.0018816.0021000.0022848.00 39.38%47.18%44.12%52.00%53.33%53.85%54.35%54.84% 250.00320.00400480520570620660 43.0342.1141.4042.0042.0042.2042.4042.70 10756.9413474.34 16,560 20,160 21,840 24,054 26,288 28,182 28.4528.9028.0025.0025.0025.0025.0025.00 7112.329248.1911,200.0012,000.0013,000.0014,250.0015,500.0016,500.00 33.88%31.36%32.37%40.48%40.48%40.76%41.04%41.45% 16.0017.00171818181818 98.67106.6198.0102.0104.0107.0110.0112.0 1578.711812.41166618361872192619802016 89.8372.3376.0078.0080.0082.0084.0086.00 1437.301229.621,292.001,404.001,440.001,476.001,512.001,548.00 8.96%32.16%22.45%23.53%23.08%23.36%23.64%23.21% 60.0069.0090.0120.0150.0170.0190.0210.0 130.93119.39168175180184186189 7855.678237.73151202100027000312803534039690 95.5187.01118.00120.00122.00124.00126.00128.00 5730.406003.7910,620.0014,400.0018,300.0021,080.0023,940.0026,880.00 27.05%27.12%29.76%31.43%32.22%32.61%32.26%32.28% 900.002500.001000.002000.002000.004000.004000.00 1.921.922.503.003.003.003.00 1727.6048002500600060001200012000 1.611.611.902.002.002.002.00 1445.094,025.001,900.004,000.004,000.008,000.008,000.00 16.35%16.15%24.00%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33% 200.001500.002500.002500.002500.003500.00 明確預(yù)測(cè)期 10.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.00 2000.0015000.0025000.0025000.0025000.0035000.00 6.006.006.006.006.006.00 1200.009000.0015000.0015000.0015000.0021000.00 40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00% 266.52459.15600.00800.001000.001200.001400.001600.00 169.53370.53450.00640.00820.001000.001200.001400.00 135990.95136633.94160522.00196896.00226612.00245928.00271508.00299080.00 15.00%0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52%10.40%10.16% 100333.3596511.82117629.00135216.00151520.00159602.00171952.00186056.00 35657.6040122.1242893.061680.075092.086326.099556.0113024.0 26.22%29.36%26.72%31.33%33.14%35.10%36.67%37.79% 200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E 540.00440.00470.00490.00505.00515.00530.00545.00 43.0040.0038.0026.0026.0026.0026.0026.00 0.420.500.450.480.510.510.510.51 380.00580.00480.00500.00540.00540.00540.00540.00 88.00120.00100.00110.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 1080.001060.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.00 1600.001500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.00 130.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 58.3246.6449.3551.4553.0354.0855.6557.23 2.702.983.003.003.003.003.003.00 1.211.521.271.391.521.521.521.52 1.201.201.201.201.201.201.201.20 4.204.404.404.404.404.404.404.40 0.410.460.480.160.060.410.230.26 68.0457.2059.7061.6063.2064.6066.0067.60 1.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.05 800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00 55.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.00 4.524.203.992.732.732.732.732.73 1.701.801.801.801.801.801.801.80 0.520.640.540.590.640.640.640.64 0.200.200.200.200.200.200.200.20 2.702.802.802.802.802.802.802.80 0.250.210.170.280.230.230.230.23 9.889.859.508.408.408.408.408.40 2.202.202.102.102.102.102.102.10 2000.002000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00 9.468.807.985.465.465.465.465.46 7.207.607.207.207.207.207.207.20 1.231.661.391.531.661.661.661.66 1.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.24 9.009.009.009.009.009.009.009.00 0.320.601.190.570.440.440.440.44 28.4528.9028.0025.0025.0025.0025.0025.00 1.901.901.901.901.901.901.901.90 3000.003000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00 61.5654.3464.3069.8371.9673.3975.5377.66 14.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.00 2.413.272.743.003.273.273.273.27 2.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.00 14.5014.5035.0033.0032.0032.0032.0032.00 1.040.901.970.170.761.341.201.06 95.5187.01118.00120.00122.00124.00126.00128.00 1190.001180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.00 2000.002000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 64.2651.9255.4657.8259.5960.7762.5464.31 12.007.957.957.957.957.957.957.95 1.141.541.291.421.541.541.541.54 9.007.967.967.967.968.508.509.00 2.802.402.402.402.402.402.402.40 0.630.560.940.450.560.841.070.80 89.8372.3376.0078.0080.0082.0084.0086.00 2015E2016E2017E2018E 1300.01300.01300.01300.0 105.00110.00118.00123.00 136500143000153400159900 69.0070.6072.2073.60 89,700.0091,780.0093,860.0095,680.00 34.29%35.82%38.81%40.16% 2940.003100.003340.003600.00 18.8019.0019.0019.20 55272.0058900.0063460.0069120.00 8.408.408.408.40 24696.0026040.0028056.0030240.00 55.32%55.79%55.79%56.25% 700740780820 43.0043.3043.6043.90 30,100 32,042 34,008 35,998 25.0025.0025.0025.00 17,500.0018,500.0019,500.0020,500.00 41.86%42.26%42.66%43.05% 18181818 114.0116.0118.0122.0 2052208821242196 88.0090.0092.0094.00 1,584.001,620.001,656.001,692.00 22.81%22.41%22.03%22.95% 230.0250.0270.0290.0 192194196198 44160485005292057420 130.00132.00134.00136.00 29,900.0033,000.0036,180.0039,440.00 32.29%31.96%31.63%31.31% 4000.005500.005500.005500.00 3.003.003.003.00 12000165001650016500 2.002.002.002.00 8,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.00 33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33% 3500.005000.005000.006000.00 長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)期 10.0010.0010.0010.00 35000.0050000.0050000.0060000.00 6.006.006.006.00 21000.0030000.0030000.0036000.00 40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00% 1800.002000.002200.002400.00 1600.001800.002000.002200.00 316884.00353030.00374612.00403534.00 5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 193980.00213740.00222252.00236752.00 122904.0139290.0152360.0166782.0 38.79%39.46%40.67%41.33% 2015E2016E2017E2018E 560.00575.00590.00600.00 26.0026.0026.0026.00 0.510.510.510.51 540.00540.00540.00540.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 1,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.00 1,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 58.8060.3861.9563.00 3.003.003.003.00 1.521.521.521.52 1.201.201.201.20 4.404.404.404.40 0.080.110.130.48 69.0070.6072.2073.60 1.051.051.051.05 800.00800.00800.00800.00 50.0050.0050.0050.00 2.732.732.732.73 1.801.801.801.80 0.640.640.640.64 0.200.200.200.20 2.802.802.802.80 0.230.230.230.23 8.408.408.408.40 2.102.102.102.10 2,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 130.00130.00130.00130.00 5.465.465.465.46 7.207.207.207.20 1.661.661.661.66 1.241.241.241.24 9.009.009.009.00 0.440.440.440.44 25.0025.0025.0025.00 1.901.901.901.90 3,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 260.00260.00260.00260.00 79.8081.9484.0885.50 12.0012.0012.0012.00 3.273.273.273.27 2.002.002.002.00 32.0032.0032.0032.00 0.930.790.651.23 130.00132.00134.00136.00 1,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.00 2,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 66.0867.8569.6270.80 7.957.957.957.95 1.541.541.541.54 9.009.509.5010.00 2.402.402.402.40 1.030.760.991.31 88.0090.0092.0094.00 情景分析情景分析 選擇情景2一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè) 年度年度20082009E2010E2011E2012E 1 銷售收入增長(zhǎng)率（YOY）0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52% 2 營(yíng)業(yè)成本/營(yíng)業(yè)收入70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90% 3 銷售費(fèi)用率3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40% 管理費(fèi)用率3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30% 股利分配比例17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00% 1樂(lè)觀假設(shè)樂(lè)觀假設(shè) 銷售收入增長(zhǎng)率（YOY）0.52%19.23%24.93%16.60%9.38% 營(yíng)業(yè)成本/營(yíng)業(yè)收入69.22%71.81%67.30%65.53%63.60% 銷售費(fèi)用率2.87%3.33%3.33%3.23%3.23% 管理費(fèi)用率3.64%4.75%4.37%4.18%4.09% 股利分配比例22.57%35.00%40.00%45.00%47.00% 2一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè) 銷售收入增長(zhǎng)率（YOY）0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52% 營(yíng)業(yè)成本/營(yíng)業(yè)收入70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90% 銷售費(fèi)用率3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40% 管理費(fèi)用率3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30% 股利分配比例17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00% 3保守預(yù)測(cè)保守預(yù)測(cè) 銷售收入增長(zhǎng)率（YOY）0.43%15.73%20.39%13.58%7.67% 營(yíng)業(yè)成本/營(yíng)業(yè)收入72.05%74.74%70.05%68.20%66.20% 銷售費(fèi)用率3.17%3.68%3.68%3.57%3.57% 管理費(fèi)用率4.03%5.25%4.83%4.62%4.52% 股利分配比例12.57%25.00%30.00%35.00%37.00% 情景分析結(jié)果情景分析結(jié)果20082009E2010E2011E2012E 營(yíng)業(yè)收入營(yíng)業(yè)收入136634160522196896226612245928 樂(lè)觀假設(shè)樂(lè)觀假設(shè)1136634162911203518237305259555 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)2136634160522196896226612245928 保守預(yù)測(cè)保守預(yù)測(cè)3136634158133190383216242232831 營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)2487723447403245239062686 樂(lè)觀假設(shè)樂(lè)觀假設(shè)12487726952454555915570734 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)22487723447403245239062686 保守預(yù)測(cè)保守預(yù)測(cè)32487720031354514606955231 凈利潤(rùn)凈利潤(rùn)2205218757322594191247014 樂(lè)觀假設(shè)樂(lè)觀假設(shè)122052.021561.836363.947324.153050.1 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)222052.018757.232259.141911.947014.4 保守預(yù)測(cè)保守預(yù)測(cè)322052.016025.028360.936855.141423.2 EPS0.470.300.520.680.76 樂(lè)觀假設(shè)樂(lè)觀假設(shè)10.470.350.590.770.86 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)20.470.300.520.680.76 保守預(yù)測(cè)保守預(yù)測(cè)30.470.260.460.600.67 2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E 10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54%59.33%58.67% 3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 44.00%46.00%48.00%50.00%52.00%54.00% 11.44%11.17%6.55%12.55%6.72%8.49% 62.07%60.97%59.99%59.33%58.14%57.50% 3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23% 3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99% 49.00%51.00%53.00%55.00%57.00%59.00% 10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54%59.33%58.67% 3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 44.00%46.00%48.00%50